Bob La Quey wrote:
On Nov 26, 2007 12:42 AM, Randall Shimizu <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
----- Original Message ----
From: Bob La Quey <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Main Discussion List for KPLUG <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2007 12:08:45 AM
Subject: Re: China has the largest (DoS) Denial of service capability....!
[Snip]
The US military's advantage is experience. The US military has decades
of computing experience. China's advantage is
that they are highly focused on
cyber warfare and so are we. So therefore the
degree of focus and resource allocation
is the key. One study noted that China is will
align all it's resources when it wants to
achieve a goal. The other factor is number of
new engineers it can throw at cyber warfare.
Yeh. I can believe that they can throw a _lot_ of very intelligent
young people at the problem. I would not be surprised if they could
out man us by 5 or 10 to one.
I also suspect that imagination, primarily a province of the
young (i.e. the Chinese), is more important than experience
in the game of cyberwarfare. We have a sterotype of the unimaginative
Chinese student. I suspect the sterotype is false.
Don't suspect, bet on it... Even with it being
true in the past that Maginot line is getting
circumvented by experience that can't possibly
be only and simply linear change as opposed to
an exponential change. This is the stuff of
which Dec. 7ths and 9/11's are made. That being
said...
The Chinese are a very difficult enemy. So maybe the best strategy is
to make them an ally. For instance, they have a _lot_ of their
wealth tied up in US debt instruments. They have _lot_ to lose
by _defeating_ us, including their largest external market.
I think this is true as they can strategically
plan to stand by the sidelines while economic,
political and military titans fall and they can,
with age old patience, fill in afterwards.
The bad news is that our one global power
hegemony (not that that is bad in political
terms given the alternatives; it being bad in
the neo-modern one world global chamber of
commerce) might be something the generals want
to try out to see if they would like as much as
we do.
The really bad news is (oddly just like exactly
100 years ago) that everyone assumes the powers
that are are sacrosanct where as the truth is
that the world 100 years hence will probably be
just as unrecognizable as 1908 is today.
Everyone is trying to use money, power and
technology to be the last hegemony standing.
Then there is Russia. No love lost between the Chinese and Russia.
I firmly believe China sees the U.S. and Russia
flailing about and crashing and burning over the
old politics vs the new global business world
order. China is moving farther and farther away
from their greatest fear which is internal
discord (population disparities aside for the
moment) with help from modern technology and
commerce. Even if we and the Russians bump heads
on our side of the globe they have a huge
incentive to hold their hand and check. After
all they have a whole planets worth of people
just in their own borders alone. I think they
actually count on some sort of stumble in the
West which will be their cue to take Taiwan and
fill the vacuum.
There are some obvious win/win scenarios. But this takes far
more political will (and imagination) than we have seen exercised
in either capital in decades.
I've decided to abstain from any thoughts that
the U.S. is anything but just plain lucky at the
base of it all with a very impressive icing of
ingenuity, imagination, bravery, and love for
others just so long as you don't mess with our
money. Drop the luck and and we are all
potential just like anyone else. So I agree, we
don't have the will or imagination because it is
just not relevant to next quarter and next
election cycle here or over there.
rbw
P.S. I get all your stuff too Randall but the
formatting is difficult to follow (maybe some
carriage returns between yours and others'
posts?) and sometimes I get your whole message
as one long line.
(Me=gmail -> T-Bird -> mailbox filters)
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