http://www.stratfor.com/asia/specialreports/special108.htm 0640 GMT, 000201 � Indonesia: The President�s Misplaced Confidence Summary Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid is on a foreign tour, while at home in Jakarta there is continued talk of coups and plots to overthrow his government. Amid the divisions within his Cabinet and the ongoing tensions between the civilian and military leaders, Wahid�s travels are an overt expression of confidence in his position. However, with several factions forming ever-shifting alliances against him, Wahid�s confidence may be misplaced. Analysis Amien Rais, speaker of the Indonesian People�s Consultative Assembly (MPR), said in an interview published on Jan. 31 in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun that the assembly is considering revising the constitution�s process for presidential succession. The proposal would block Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri from automatically taking the helm if President Abdurrahman Wahid leaves office, instead giving the decision on succession to the assembly. The comment by Rais follows rumors of an alliance forming between the Muslim Central Axis, headed by Rais, and disgruntled military officers to oust Wahid. These events emphasize the divisions within Indonesia�s government. The Central Axis is reportedly dissatisfied with Wahid�s progress in solving religious conflicts across Indonesia. A Jan. 27 article in Singapore�s Business Times cited �well-placed sources� as revealing new alignment between the Central Axis and the military. Likewise, factions within the armed forces are dissatisfied with Wahid for not allowing the military to take control of the separatist violence and for undermining the political power of the armed forces. The rifts within the government have been apparent since the early days of the coalition government. However, as rumors and denials of coups abound, the groundwork is now being laid for the removal of Wahid and Megawati without resorting to extra-constitutional means. The attack from the Central Axis and the military stems from Wahid�s moves to simultaneously transition Indonesia into a new democratic system and clean house. This has led to shifting alliances within the government and seemingly unpredictable statements from the president. Wahid has already faced down a potential challenge from the nationalist Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (PDI-P), headed by Megawati, and a challenge by the armed forces over the idea of federalism for Indonesia. Wahid dropped his calls for federalism as a solution to Indonesia�s separatist conflicts, pulling himself closer to PDI-P. At the same time, he continued his attack on the military, using longstanding rivalries within the service to keep the military off balance. However, in breaking up this potential opposition bloc, he has only shifted the source of contention. Indonesia�s armed forces remain a key player in any opposition to Wahid and his government. Whether by constitutional or extra-constitutional means, any challenge to Wahid�s government must have the support of the military. Although beset by infighting, Indonesia�s armed forces maintain a far more substantial structural network across all of Indonesia than any other organization in Indonesia. While the army has repeatedly denied that it will overthrow the government, pressure continues to mount against this last bastion of national unity. Indonesia�s Investigative Commission of Human Rights Abuses in East Timor (KPP HAM) delivered a report to the Indonesian attorney general�s office Jan. 31 citing Gen. Wiranto and other high-ranking military and civilian leaders for involvement in the chaos in East Timor following the independence referendum last year. On the same day, after an inquiry into East Timor, the United Nations released its report calling for the establishment of an international human rights tribunal. As the armed forces come under increasing scrutiny, the impetus to support the current government becomes less concrete. Despite the precarious situation, Wahid continues to press his agenda and travel abroad, demonstrating confidence in his power. Wahid is in essence perpetrating a divide-and-conquer scheme. Having not yet consolidated his own power, Wahid is playing a dangerous game. - Kirim bunga untuk handaitaulan & relasi di jakarta www.indokado.com -- Situs sulap pertama di Indonesia http://www.impact.or.id/dmc-sulap/ Untuk bergabung atau keluar dari Milis, silakan LAKUKAN SENDIRI Bergabung: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Keluar: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sambut MASA DEPAN BARU Indonesia!
