Full text at http://www.comw.org/poc/0501.html 
The External Debt: Global Reserve Growth
One of the areas we watch closely in the Pulse is the U.S. international 
investment position, which we will refer to as the external debt. This debt 
grew from -$323.4 billion in 1994 to -$2,430.7 billion in 2003, an average 
annual increase of -$234.1 billion. As a percentage of GDP, the debt grew from 
4.6 percent in 1994 to 22.1 percent in 2003. (Direct investment in this data is 
valued at current cost.)

Since 1999, a period of economic weakness, the debt has grown exceptionally 
fast, from -$775.5 billion to -$2,430.7 billion, an increase of 213.4 percent. 
This growth continued in the first half of 2004 with an increase of -$285.4 
billion. Historically, economies such as Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, or 
Indonesia prospered during periods of capital inflow but faced crises when 
those flows slowed or stopped. One of our great unanswered questions is what 
would happen if the U.S. experienced such a slowing or reversal. Consequently, 
it is very important that we follow developments that have an impact on the 
U.S. position.

The U.S. net international investment position consists of a variety of 
financial and other assets (see Pulse #04-1), but in this discussion we will 
focus on foreign investments in U.S. Treasury and other securities as they are 
especially sensitive to economic and financial developments. 


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