http://www.counterpunch.org/ross08162006.html
August 16, 2006
Towards Armageddon and After
Endgame Engulfs Mexico
By JOHN ROSS
Mexico City.
T hey carried the coffin of Jose Jimenez Colmanares on their shoulders
through the narrow streets of Oaxaca city into the old colonial plaza they
had occupied for months and deposited it outside the state government
offices. There his comrades - striking schoolteachers and militants of the
mostly-indigenous Oaxaca Popular Peoples' Assembly (APPO) mourned the
fallen car mechanic with furious epithets and accusations. Jimenez, the
husband of a striking teacher, had been gunned down by goons during a march
two nights before and the assailants had been tracked to a nearby warehouse
where they were captured by the furious crowd and their hideout burnt to
the ground. But for the striking teachers and their allies in the APPO, the
bullet that murdered Jose Jimenez was fired by Governor Ulisis Ruiz whose
resignation they have been demanding for months.
The strike of Oaxaca's teachers began last May 15, the Day of the Maestro,
when 70,000 members of the radicalized Section 22 of the National Education
Workers Union walked out of their classrooms in pursuit of a cost of living
increase. Encamped in the same plaza where Jose Jimenez's corpse was now
planted, the maestros refused to move even after Governor Ruiz set a
thousand state police on them June 14--more than a hundred were injured as
the cops slammed concussion grenades into the swirling crowd below from
low-flying helicopters. But the teachers soon retook the plaza and together
with the even more radical APPO have continued to carry on a vigorous
campaign of civil disobedience and just plain sabotage.
Pledging to physically obstruct the July 2 presidential balloting in the
state, many teachers instead voted for leftist candidate Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador (AMLO) who won the popular vote in Oaxaca handily greatly
embarrassing Governor Ruiz, a disciple of the long-ruling [] Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) standard bearer Roberto Madrazo.
In the heady days since July 2 during which Lopez Obrador was apparently
swindled out of the presidency of Mexico, both sides in the Oaxaca
stand-off have grown more aggressive, the maestros and their allies
blocking highways, tourist hotels, and burning up the stage at the annual
Guelaguetza indigenous dance festival, forcing the cancellation of Oaxaca's
top tourist attraction. Governor Ruiz has responded in the old PRI way,
sending his pistoleros after his detractors--a university radio station was
shot up, as was a local newspaper Noticias which had dared to diss Ruiz. A
professor was gunned down near the Autonomous Benito Juarez University and
protestors' buses were torched. Leaders of the APPO, including one
wheelchair-bound activist were arrested and jailed in maximum-security
prisons. Jimenez's death may not have been the final straw.
Up until the present face-off, Ulisis Ruiz was a rising star in the sinking
PRI firmament. During its excruciatingly long and cruel seven decade rule,
the former ruling party stole one election after another, crushed or
co-opted those who opposed it, dominated the nation's political agenda, and
deliberately kept the Mexican people in abject poverty, holding their votes
hostage for crumbs until the PRI was unceremoniously dumped from power six
years ago by the right-wing National Action or PAN party and outgoing
president Vicente Fox.
The ex-official party's fortunes fell even more precipitously this past
July 2 when the PRI finished a dismal third behind Lopez Obrador's Party of
the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and right-winger Felipe Calderon's PAN. Its
unctuous candidate Madrazo had been Ulisis Ruiz's protector in PRI ruling
circles and the Oaxaca governor's political future is deeply entangled with
the snake-slim former party president from tropical Tabasco. But for now,
the future of the PRI, not only in Oaxaca but all over Mexico's political
map, is past.
Southern Mexico was once the ex-ruling party's "green reserve" where the
ballot boxes always came back stuffed with 110% of the votes for the PRI, a
"zapato" (shoe) or "carro completo" (full car) in the Institutionals'
arcane argot - but on July 2, Lopez Obrador swept 16 southern Mexican
states, the poorest, most indigenous, and resource-rich region in the union
containing 54 per cent of the nation's population, including the PRI's
greenest reserves--Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca.
Both Tabasco and Chiapas are expected to sustain the AMLO tide in
gubernatorial elections this August and September. But in Chiapas, it is
not easy to separate the PRIistas from the former PRIistas who have moved
into the PRD's house in the last months. The PRD's candidate for governor-
Juan Sabines, the nephew of the nation's most passionate romantic poet, is
a political hack who accepted the left-center party's nomination only after
he had been denied the slot by the PRI. Under the auspices of outgoing
Chiapas governor Pablo Salazar, who spent six years walking a tightrope
between Fox, the PRI, and the PRD, Sabines was running 10 points ahead of
the pack when abracadabra, the PAN candidate and an ex-PRDista who had
opportunistically availed himself of the PANAL or New Alliance Party's
nomination under the tutelage of teachers' union czarina Elba Esther
Gordillo, abruptly retired from the race and threw their votes to the PRI's
Juan Antonio Bodegas. If this sounds like universal treason, it is.
In Chiapas, at least, and in many states where AMLO won big July 2, both
the PRI and the PRD--not to mention the PAN, which seems to have stolen the
presidency from Lopez Obrador "a la antigua" (in the old PRI way)--are all
living in the past tense
PRESENT TENSE
Despite their demands for a vote-by-vote recount, Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador is convinced that he won the July 2 presidential race only to have
victory wrested away in a complicated fraud orchestrated by the Federal
Electoral Commission (IFE) to favor right-winger Felipe Calderon. The seven
judge tribunal (TRIFE)which has until September 5 to name the next
president of Mexico, has ordered a review of less than 10 per cent of the
130,000 plus "casillas" or precincts where 41 million citizens deposited
their ballots back on the first Sunday in July.
Notwithstanding AMLO's refusal to go along with the "10% Solution", the
partial recount began last Wednesday in 149 out of the nation's 300
electoral districts. Putting little credence in the fairness of a process
he is convinced is rigged against him, Lopez Obrador has vowed to intensify
the campaign of civil resistance that his followers, still encamped on the
streets and boulevards of the capital, have so industriously waged for weeks.
Even as the votes were being counted out in 26 of the nation's 32 states,
AMLO's people closed down toll booths at the gates of Mexico City, slipping
plastic bags that read "Voto Por Voto" over the coin collection boxes, and
let thousands of motorists into the city for free--not really a huge favor
in a megalopolis where traffic has been hopelessly snarled since the
encampments were established July 30. In response, the federal commission
(CAFUPE) that oversees Mexico's mostly privatized highways--road tolls are
some of the most expensive in the world to insure a quick return on
transnational investment--offered to drag Lopez Obrador into court for
endangering the taxpayers' patrimony.
In a concerted effort to disrupt Mexico's highly globalized economy,
supporters also shut down three major foreign-owned banks (all Mexican
banks are foreign-owned) and blocked doors at the Finance Ministry's
tax-collection offices--AMLO's people shut down the Mexican stock market
the week before.
The civil resistance campaign has stoked a backlash amongst chilangos
(Mexico City residents) who did not vote for Lopez Obrador, the former
mayor of the capital. 349 motorists have filed complaints with the city's
human rights commission protesting that their right of free transit is
being violated by the camp-in. Interim mayor Alejandro Encinas, AMLO's
one-time left-hand man and a roly-poly former communist, has been
threatened with impeachment for failing to order the police to clean out
the encampments. One transnational publicity outfit that has display
advertising contracts with the city filed charges with the attorney general
because its clients' billboards were being visually obstructed by the
campers' tents.
To answer the charges, several thousand protestors marched on federal law
enforcement offices, some wearing convict's stripes, others in handcuffs or
hogtied or wearing nooses around their necks but all sporting notices of
their intention of turning themselves into the authorities for "defending
democracy."
But while these hijinks grabbed the cameras, behind locked doors in 149
district offices of the much-abused IFE and indeed staffed by the same IFE
technicians who had fouled the July 2 vote, the partial recount proceeded
under the eyes of hurriedly appointed members of the judiciary, not all of
them of proven probity by any means, and the representatives of the
political parties. The press was locked out, permitted in only for photo
ops and on-the-fly interviews with party reps. But despite the absence of
hard info, the numbers began to flow sub rosa early on.
Inside the counting rooms, Mexico's 2006 presidential election, exalted by
the U.S. State Department as a paragon of democracy, was not a pretty
sight. Hundreds of ballot boxes warehoused under military guard had been
broken into, their seals ripped open, and the contents contaminated.
Sometimes the ballots were scattered on the floor of the warehouse,
sometimes there were no ballots inside the boxes to verify what the tally
sheets ("actas") affirmed. When AMLO's representatives grew apoplectic at
the wholesale fraud, the judges ordered the military to expel them from the
recount.
Jalisco, a PAN citadel, was the first state to report results on election
night--there was a governor's race on the ballot as well as the
presidential vote and the PAN seemed to have kicked ass, building up a 70
per cent landslide. But the results seemed so out of whack with national
numbers (Calderon was awarded a highly dubious .58 per cent victory by the
IFE) that the judges ordered more than 1700 casillas in the state reopened.
The new count did not sustain Calderon's Election Day claims. In 15 ballot
boxes in District 3 (Tepatitlan), the PANista had been awarded 2700 votes
according to the tally sheets that could not be found in the ballot boxes.
Lopez Obrador, meanwhile, picked up 250 votes in the district, about 12 per
casilla--Calderon's disputed 243,000 "victory" breaks down to about 1.8 per
casilla.
On paper, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had only to accumulate a total of
24,000 votes recovered in his favor or subtracted from Calderon's in the
partial sample--10 per cent of all the precincts--in order to catch the
right-winger and force the judges to count out all the ballots "voto por
voto." According to the PRD's electoral guru Horacio Duarte, not only has
AMLO rescued that many votes in the recount but also at least 150,000
Calderon votes cannot be substantiated by the recount,
Extrapolating the total vote from these estimates would give Lopez Obrador
a 1.5 million-vote victory.
Thousands of ballots not found in the ballot boxes were apparently added to
the PANista's total July 2 while thousands of other ballots issued to the
precincts were never accounted for. One federal judge has suggested that
voters took them home as souvenirs. In addition, nearly a million ballots
cast July 2 were declared null and void by federal election
officials--nearly four times the margin of Calderon's purported triumph.
Indeed the gross number of anomalies found in the sample that now must be
evaluated by the TRIFE could result in the annulation of enough districts
to throw the election back to Lopez Obrador - although no one is banking on
such a happy ending. AMLO himself seems to have lost faith in a judicial
process that has always favored the rich and powerful, and now talks of
preventing the presidency of Felipe Calderon from being imposed upon the land.
FUTURE TENSE
This past Sunday (August 13), amidst rumors that the encampments were about
to be lifted, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took his customary stance on the
speaker's platform in the packed Zocalo plaza for yet another "informative
assembly". For the first time in years, I was invited to view the
proceedings from the roof garden of the Majestic Hotel where AMLO's less
impoverished supporters often convene for brunch--the Majestic fronts the
Zocalo in sniper's range of Lopez Obrador.
Down below, tens of thousands of little yellow AMLO ants swarmed and
seethed, the chants of "los de abajo" rising in great waves from the street
and infecting even the "perfumados" (the perfumed ones.) "Voto Por Voto,
Casilla Por Casilla!" and "No Estas Solo!" rang from the rooftop garden.
From that vantage point, Lopez Obrador was poised right behind the
monumental Mexican flag planted at the exact center of the plaza. The red,
white and green banner, which features an eagle devouring a snake on a
nopal cactus bush, kept furling and unfurling dramatically, definitely the
visual of the day.
Lopez Obrador was here to talk about the future. No, the camps would not be
dismantled. He projected that they might remain in place for years. As
usual, he did not express much hope that even confronted by the stinking
garbage of electoral fraud their own recount had vomited up, the judges
would open any more ballot boxes and count out the votes one by one. Even
now, they were preparing to sweep the whole mess under the legal rug and
crown Calderon king of Mexico. The immediate task was to prevent the TRIFE
from putting the certificate of constancy that would confirm the July 2
flimflam in Felipe's little hand. Whenever and wherever this crime was to
take place, AMLO appealed to his supporters to disrupt the
ceremony--peacefully, of course.
There were other dates on the calendar of civil resistance. On September 1,
outgoing President Vicente Fox is to go to congress to present his annual
"Informe" or State of the Union address and Lopez Obrador called upon his
people to surround the legislature. An attempt to establish a camp outside
the building August 14 was repelled by Federal Preventative Police and
Fox's elite military guard. Newly elected PRD legislators were gassed and
beaten, the first overt repression against AMLO's people during the
post-electoral troubles.
On September 15, Fox is slated to deliver his final Independence Day
"Grito" ("Viva Mexico!") to a usually jammed Zocalo but the fiery leftist
advised the president to find another venue--his people were here now and
they would deliver their own grito. AMLO also encouraged his supporters to
dog Fox as he travels around the country, protesting his role in the Great
Fraud at every stop--there have already been shoving matches between AMLO's
people and the elite troops assigned to protect the president.
Loath to expose his person to an enraged public, Felipe Calderon has yet to
venture outside business and political circles in upscale southern Mexico
City--his SUV was attacked by furious street venders on his one foray
outside his insulated bailiwick.
September 16 promises to be an exhilarating day on AMLO's dance card.
Traditionally, the Zocalo is the starting point for an ultra patriotic
military parade that day. Battalion after battalion goose step beneath the
President's flag-bedecked balcony as he waves from the National Palace. But
instead of martial music and streaking jet fighters, Lopez Obrador is
summoning all Mexicans to flock to the Zocalo for an historic National
Democratic Convention. How the Generals will respond to this cheeky
challenge is not much of a mystery. The tanks will be in the street.
Armageddon is scheduled for December 1 on AMLO's calendar. That's when
FeCal, as he is universally dubbed by his detractors, will receive the
presidential sash from his predecessor. As Luis Hernandez, editor of the
national left daily La Jornada op ed page recently speculated, the
inauguration will probably take place behind the walls of Military Camp #1
in western Mexico City to avoid civil insurrection.
In addition to strong-arming Calderon, Lopez Obrador is reportedly seeking
consensus among the PRD's congressional representatives, about a third of
the 628 deputies and senators, not to take office September 1. Such a
strike by elected officials could paralyze the new congress and trigger
constitutional crisis. But some legislators argue that the PAN-PRI majority
will use the interval to order the destruction of the evidence of massive
fraud July 2nd by burning the ballots, much as they did after the PRI stole
the election from Cuauhtemoc Cardenas in 1988.
And after Armageddon--what next? Widespread armed rebellion? A new Mexican
revolution? A sniper's bullet from a window of the Majestic Hotel? Will
Oliver Stone make the movie?
John Ross's ZAPATISTAS! Making Another World Possible--Chronicles of
Resistance 2000-2006 will be published by Nation Books in October. Ross
will travel the left coast this fall with the new volume and a
hot-off-the-press chapbook of poetry Bomba!--all suggestions of venues will
be cheerfully entertained--write [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The Freedom Archives
522 Valencia Street
San Francisco, CA 94110
(415) 863-9977
www.freedomarchives.org
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