>Home > Iraq Is Coming Apart at the Seams > By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted October 21, 2006. > > As Iraq falls apart, rumors are flying that >there will be a Bush-backed coup, an open >three-sided civil war and a host of other >nightmarish outcomes. >Tools > > >Iraq is splintering along a dozen fault lines, >and the prospects for a political solution are >slim. Experts in conflict negotiation -- >veterans of civil wars in places like Northern >Ireland and Cambodia -- talk about the need for >a clash to "ripen," to come to a point when >combatants are exhausted with the violence and >see that whatever they might gain from continued >fighting is outweighed by the costs. Before they >get to that place, a political settlement is all >but impossible. > >Iraq's armed factions, sadly, aren't close to >that point. The stakes are too high -- Shiites >are fighting for the majority rule that has long >eluded them, Sunnis are fighting to hang on to >some political influence and retain a piece of >the country's oil wealth and the Kurds are >fighting for some degree of independence. Iraqis >are fighting against occupation by foreign >troops, and they're fighting to keep their >country together. Neither government troops nor >coalition forces have been able to protect >civilians; they're being cut down by death >squads and plagued by rampant criminality. >Iraqis are battling for their homes and for >their lives. > >This week saw the first signs of open civil war, >as Shiite and Sunni militias battled it out in >Balad, a city north of Baghdad, as well as a >sharp spike in violence in the Iraqi capital. In >the south, Shiites battled Shiites in Amarah, >while Sunni militias held military parades in >Haqlaniyah and Haditha. There are at least 23 >independent militias operating in Baghdad alone. > >It's hard to imagine what policy makers here or >in Iraq can do to change the risk-benefit >calculations to a degree that would lead dozens >of armed factions to lay down their weapons and >trust their futures to a political process. In >Washington, those tasked with trying to come up >with the right policy are hobbled by a stunning >degree of ignorance about the region -- >essentially viewing the Middle East as roiled in >a conflict between "good" and "bad" Arabs. The >New York Times' Jeff Stein found that most >policy makers overseeing the U.S. effort don't >even know which countries in the region -- or >which armed groups in Iraq -- have Shiite or >Sunni majorities. > >Today the government elected last December is >hanging by a thread. Iraqi lawmakers reached by >phone earlier this week reported that Baghdad is >awash in rumors of an impending coup. There's >widespread anticipation that a "government of >national salvation" -- a junta -- will seize >power and dissolve Iraq's Parliament at any >time. Those rumors are being echoed in >Washington. > >The most commonly discussed scenario is of a >council of four or five influential leaders >headed either by former Prime Minister Iyad >Allawi -- a secular, pro-American Shiite with a >violent background -- or Saleh al-Mutlaq, head >of the Sunni National Dialogue Front and a >former constitutional negotiator, taking power >in a bloodless coup. > >Mutlaq was visiting neighboring capitals this >week, reportedly to gain support for the plan. >According to the Washington Post, he spent this >summer pushing the idea in meetings across the >Middle East. He's been promising American >support for the coup. > >The official line is that the U.S. opposes any >action against Iraq's democratically elected >government. But if the coup comes to pass, it >will be with some level of American approval -- >the Iraqi government is entirely within the >U.S.-controlled and heavily defended Green zone. >"The [coup] scenario is not a bad scenario for >the United States," Robert Killebrew, a retired >Army colonel and national security analyst told >the Washington Times. "U.S. policy issues in the >Middle East and Iraq do not require a democratic >Iraq, it only requires a stable and friendly >Iraq," he said. Killebrew predicted that there'd >be "a certain amount of sanctimonious >hand-wringing and saying that we don't agree >with the overthrow of a democratically elected >government," after which the administration >would reluctantly voice its support for the new >regime. > >This would allow the U.S. to withdraw on a >timetable it finds acceptable while assuring >that its two main goals -- developing Iraq's >vast oil wealth in partnership with Western >multinationals and preventing a haven for Muslim >extremists from developing just 500 miles from >Israel -- are secured. > >Alternatively, it might allow the U.S. to remain >in Iraq without resistance from Iraqi lawmakers. >Occupation and democracy are not compatible; two >different resolutions demanding the withdrawal >of U.S. forces have gained broad support in the >Iraqi Parliament. In December, Baghdad must ask >the UN to extend the American-led coalition's >mandate, or the occupation will effectively be >over. A group of Iraqi lawmakers are considering >blocking the request. > >But if that's the thinking, it would likely >backfire. Lacking the legitimacy of elections, >the junta would have little choice but to ask >the U.S. for a timetable for withdrawal. If they >didn't do so, they'd be viewed as little more >than American puppets > >According to the Washington Times, the new >regime would likely be aided by remnants of >Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. Disaffected >Baathists "purged" from the military and the >bureaucracy are believed to provide the backbone >of the Sunni insurgency. In an event of some >significance that went unnoticed by the American >media, former high-level Baathists made their >first public appearance since the invasion last >week, holding a conference on "national >reconciliation" in Mosul. > >In Washington, American officials are largely >discounting the rumors. The speculation here >centers on a so-called "course correction" after >the midterm elections in November. Former >Secretary of State James Baker -- long a close >advisor to the Bush family and a man with >decades of experience in the Middle East -- >heads the Iraq Study Group, a working group >that's been analyzing policy alternatives for >the administration. Earlier this week, the plans >they've been considering were leaked to the >neoconservative New York Sun. According to the >Sun, the group is considering a phased >withdrawal of American troops over a 20-month >period, with reserves held in neighboring >countries positioned to strike insurgents in >Iraq or elsewhere in the region, and an >initiative to bring Iran and Syria into a peace >process, a move that seems inconceivable for >this administration and would earn intense scorn >from conservatives. > >Bush is facing increasing anger from Republicans >for allowing Iraq to threaten their hold on the >Congress. Senate Armed Services Committee Chair >John Warner, R-Va., recently expressed >frustration with the inability of the Iraqi >government to contain the increasing sectarian >violence. In the hard-right Weekly Standard, the >American Enterprise Institute's Reuel Marc >Gerecht wrote: "It's a good guess that a >majority of Republicans in Congress would dearly >love to escape from Iraq if they could figure >out how to do so without sounding like >'cut-and-run' Democrats." > >Yet it's uncertain to what degree Bush is >responsive to those pressures. On Oct. 16, Bush >called Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki to assure him >that the United States has no plans to withdraw >anytime soon. He has long maintained that U.S. >forces will remain in Iraq for the duration of >his presidency. On Friday, Bush denied that a >change in strategy was being considered. > >It's also unclear how much longer the Shiites >will tolerate U.S. troops' presence, regardless >of what the administration wants or what >government sits in Baghdad next year. Historian >Gareth Porter made a compelling argument in >Tompaine this week that even though the American >forces have dominant airpower, the most powerful >ground force in Iraq today is Muqtada al-Sadr's >Mahdi Army. With U.S. supply lines spread >through the Shiite-controlled South, and >pressure mounting on Tony Blair to pull the >Brits out of the region, it's widely believed >that the Shiites could force the issue whenever >they choose to do so. It's likely that Iran is >pressuring Shiite leaders to remain patient, in >part because the regime in Tehran understands >that 140,000 U.S. hostages next door is its best >deterrent against an American attack. > >Talk of a coup follows a controversial measure >passed by the Iraqi Parliament last week that >will allow each of the country's 18 provinces to >make a decision -- in eighteen months' time -- >to form into largely autonomous federal regions. >There's a danger that this might set off a whole >new round of violence between different factions >as they vie for control of provincial >governments before the decision is to be made. >The resolution was backed by Shiites with close >ties to Iran -- the Iranians see an opportunity >to have influence in Baghdad and a great deal >more in the south of the country -- and some >Kurdish lawmakers. Sunnis, and many Shiite >parliamentarians -- including those loyal to >al-Sadr -- boycotted the session and the >resolution passed by a single vote. > >Interestingly, Iyad Allawi was an outspoken >opponent of the measure, but while most >legislators in his Iraqi National Accord >boycotted the tally, four of them provided the >decisive votes needed to pass the resolution. >It's possible that he was setting up conditions >that would lead to the rumored coup. > >According to polls, majorities of all Iraqi >ethnic groups are in favor of a strong central >government. However, there are deep divisions >within each one. The Shiites are split over >regional autonomy -- between nationalists and >supporters of Tehran -- and a group of Sunni >tribal leaders this week declared war on >insurgent groups that called for the creation of >a Sunni "caliphate" encompassing eight provinces >in central and Northern Iraq. And while a >homeland has long been a dream of Kurds both >inside and outside of Iraq, many fear that >Kurdish independence could lead to a larger >regional war. > >Oil is fueling much of the conflict, both >literally -- insurgent groups are believed to >use smuggled oil to finance some of their >operations -- and politically. Iraq faces a >December deadline to pass its permanent oil law, >and if it ends up granting long-term control >over the country's energy reserves to Western >firms, as is widely expected, it could prove a >tipping point, validating many Iraqis' >suspicions that the occupation is all about >stealing the country's natural wealth and >driving up the insurgents' numbers. > >There's also a sharp debate going on about a >somewhat vague clause in Iraq's Constitution. In >oil-rich provinces, local leaders have >interpreted the provision as allowing them to >keep some oil revenue instead of sending it to >Baghdad. That raises the stakes about who will >ultimately control provinces with significant >oil production even further. The Kurdish >autonomous region has already signed three deals >with foreign firms to develop fields in its >territory, and Baghdad has denied the >agreements' validity. Some Kurdish leaders have >threatened to secede over the issue. > >Kirkuk is likely to spark a new civil war if the >country is partitioned, as Kurds and Arabs both >claim the oil-rich city. "Ethnic cleansing" of >Arabs and Turkmens in Kirkuk is common, and >appears to be sanctioned by the Kurdish >authorities. > >There's a significant threat that the >multilayered conflicts in Iraq might ignite a >broader regional war. The Turks are frustrated >that Baghdad -- and Washington -- are unable to >control the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), a >group that's launched attacks in Turkey from the >Kurdish autonomous region. The PKK has also >threatened to launch attacks within Iran, which, >along with Syria, has a sizeable Kurdish >minority. Ankara has not ruled out intervening >militarily in northern Iraq, and is stepping up >cooperation with the Iranians, according to The >Turkish Weekly. Turkish officials view the >creation of a Kurdish state with the oil wealth >of Kirkuk as an unacceptable threat -- last week >Turkey's foreign minister also held open the >possibility of intervening in Kirkuk ostensibly >to protect the Turkmens from oppression at the >hands of the Kurds. > >Supporters of the occupation still claim that >the media doesn't report the "good news" from >Iraq, but the fact is the country is an object >lesson about the human costs of military >adventurism. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis >have died and many more have fled their homes to >escape the chaos. According to the U.N., torture >may well be more prevalent today than it was >under Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi blogger >Riverbend recently wrote: "We literally do not >know a single Iraqi family that has not seen the >violent death of a first or second-degree >relative these last three years There are >Iraqi women who have not shed their black >mourning robes since 2003 because each time the >end of the proper mourning period comes around, >some other relative dies and the countdown >begins once again." > >Raed Jarrar, director of the Iraq Project at >Global Exchange, contributed to this report. > >Joshua Holland is an AlterNet staff writer.
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