From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [NYTr] Stunning Report on Iraq by Barry McCaffrey
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (NY Transfer List)

[This is a stunning, astonishingly honest report by US Gen (Retired) and
former Drug Czar Barry McCaffrey on his recent visit to Iraq, published in
PDF format by The Washington Post. We have converted it to plain ascii text
and HTML format and have posted the .pdf and html (URLs below). Following is
the plain-text version, proof-read only to remove page numbers and reformat.
Minor typographical errors remain as in the original.

The information is hard to stomach, but this is a very important
document. It clearly shows the criminal devastation that Bush and
his regime have visited upon Iraq, and the criminal incompetence that
has brought the US -- no matter what one thinks of it -- to near-ruin
internationally, and the US military to near-destruction.

This memo alone could be the basis for an international criminal indictment
of Bush and all his underlings responsible for the Iraq war and the USA's
other "terror war" misadventures.  They should all be arrested and put on
trial at the Hague. -NY Transfer]

source: The Washington Post - Mar 27, 2007

The Original PDF is here:
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/documents/McCaffrey_Report_032707.pdf

It is also posted here:
http://www.blythe.org/users/rrichard/McCaffrey_Report_032707.pdf

and converted to .html format here:
http://www.blythe.org/users/rrichard/McCaffrey_Report_032707.html


March 26, 2007

MEMORANDUM FOR: Colonel Michael Meese Professor and Head, Dept of Social
Sciences

CC: Colonel Cindy Jebb Professor and Deputy Head, Dept of Social Sciences

SUBJECT: After Action Report
VISIT IRAQ AND KUWAIT 9-16 March 2007

By Barry R. McCaffrey General USA (Ret)
Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
USMA, West Point, NY

1. PURPOSE: This memo provides feedback on my strategic and operational
assessment of security operations in both Iraq and Kuwait in support of US
Central Command. Look forward to providing lectures to the Faculty Seminar
and National Security Seminar during upcoming visit on 4 April 2007.

2. SOURCES:

A. Iraq:

1.) Gen David Petraeus. MNF-I CG: One-on-one Exit Briefing. Working dinner.
One-on-one in-brief office call.

2.) Charg (DCM) Ambassador Daniel Speckhard.

3.) LTG Raymond Odierno: Commander Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I).

4.) LTG Graeme Lamb. (UK) DCG of Multi-National Force Iraq (MNF-I):
One-on-one Office Call.

5.) LTG Marty Dempsey. (MNSTC-I) CG: Briefings. "Developing the Iraqi Army
and Police." Working lunch.

6.) Senior Special Operations General Officer. OCF-I CG: Update on Direct
Action Counter Terrorism.

7.) MG Randy Mixon. Multi-National Division North (MND-N) CG 25th Infantry
Division: Office Call.

Working supper. TOC Briefing. (Tikrit).

8.) MG Thomas Moore, USMC. Multi-National Force Iraq (MNF-I) Chief of
Staff: Office Call.

9.) MG Walter Gaskins, USMC. Multi-National Division West. (Marines.
Fallujah) (MNF-W)

Commander Ground Combat Element. Fallujah: Working lunch. Intelligence
assessment briefing. Long term assessment briefing.

10.) GO Briefings. MG Dave Fastaband, MG Kurt Cichowski (DCS SPA), MG Bill
Caldwell, MG Skip Scott, (UK) BG Baverstock (DDCS SPA): General officer
seminar/tutorial. "The Situation in Iraq."

11.) American Embassy Baghdad Country Team Briefing AMB Speckhard, AMB
Joe Saloom (Director of IRMO), AMB Tim Carney (Economic Coordinator), BG
Mike Walsh (Gulf Region Division Corps of Engineers), Mr. Dan Weygandt
(ECON Counselor), Dr. Terry Kelly (JSPA): Meeting/Briefings.

12.) MG Jack Gardner. Commander. US Detention Facility -- Iraqi Detainees:
Staff briefings.

Intelligence and detainee operations.

13.) MG Joe Fils. CG Multi-National Division-Baghdad (MND-B): Office call.

14.) BG Vince Brooks. (ADC-O) and Division Battle Staff. 1st Cav Div.
(MND-B): Battle Staff Briefing.

15.) BG Steve Anderson. MNF-I (R&S): Dinner/Discussions. Coalition
logistics.

16.) BG Dana Pittard. CG, Iraq Assistance Group. "Creating the Iraqi
Security Forces."

17.) COL Pete Forman, Chief-of-staff. Briefing---"Embedded Training Teams."

18.) Visit Joint US-Iraqi HQs. West Baghdad. Briefings. Baghdad Security.

MAJ Gen. ---CG. 6th Iraqi Army Division MAJ Gen. ---CG. 2nd National Police
Division MAJ Gen. ---CG. Iraqi KAC.

COL Britt, MET Chief COL Griese, 1st Cav Div. (ISF G3 Chief)

19.) Commander -- CJSOTF-AP: Special Forces support of Iraqi operations.
(Balad).

20.) 13th Sustainment Command (Balad). Logistics support for the coalition.
Working breakfast: COL Crissy Gayagas. Dep CMD.

COL David Cotter. Chief-of-Staff.

COL Gregg Gross. Distribution.

COL Glenn Grothe. G-3.

21.) COL Burton. Commander. 2nd Brigade Combat Team. 1st Inf. Div: Visit
Command Post. Baghdad security operations.

22.) COL Mike Kershaw. Commander. 2nd Brigade Combat Team. 10th Mountain
Division: Visit Command Post. Baghdad security operations.

23.) LTC -- Intelligence: Working breakfast "The Enemy Situation."

24.) Military Police Major. Working breakfast. - "Detainee Operations."

25.) Mr. Michael von der Schulenburg. UN Representative to Iraq (Deputy
Special Representative of the Secretary General, SRSG: Two hour office
call. "The political situation in Iraq."

26.) USAID Briefings. US Embassy-- Green Zone. Ms. Hilda Arellano and Mr.
Mike Harvey: USAID Country Development Plan.

27.) Mr. Derek Harvey (CIOC): Meeting.

28.) MAJ John Atkins. Mr. Brian McLaughlin. Mr. Anthony Garcia: Briefing on
ISF Readiness.

29.) COL Murray. LTC Jeff McDougall (C3 Plans). COL John Orourke (Dep C3).
MAJ O. Ken Straller (C3 Plans). COL Martin Wilson (Chief Plans and Policy).
MAJ James Powell (Campaign Planner): MNC-

I Plans.

30.) Asymmetric Warfare Group -- MAJ Blake Conners (TRP CDR). Matt Dennis
(opso). Kevin Corbit (Field Team). Mike Campbell (TRP SRG). Dana Guy. James
Kramas: Working Dinner.

B. Kuwait:

1.) Ambassador Richard Lebaron. Kuwait: Working breakfast. (Plus DCM, DAO,
Dep CDR OMC-K)

2.) LTG Steve Whitcomb, USA. Commander 3rd Army. Camp Arifjan, Kuwait.

3.) MG Dennis Hardy. DCG. 3rd US Army: Office Call/Briefing. "The support
concept for US Forces Iraq and Afghanistan."

4.) BG Sam Thompson, USA (Ret): President MPRI Corp. Kuwait.

5.) BG Joe Martz: Camp Beuhring. Udari Range. "Final training pre-entry to
Iraq."

6.) BG Mark Solo, USAF. Chief, OMC-K: "The situation in Kuwait."

7.) Colonel David Cordon. Vice Chief, OMC-K: Briefing. "The Kuwait Armed
Forces."

8.) LTC Robert Friedenburg. Chief. Defense Attach Office: Briefing "The
situation in Kuwait."

9.) General Officer/Senior Leader Working Dinner. Briefing--"US Forces in
Kuwait." Camp Arifjan.

3. THE PROBLEM:

These are the facts.

Iraq is ripped by a low grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic
levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is
in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of
foreign fighters (500+) -- and a couple of thousand Al Qaeda operatives
incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia
holy places and innocent civilians. Thousands of attacks target US Military
Forces (2900 IED's) a month-- primarily stand off attacks with IED's,
rockets, mortars, snipers, and mines from both Shia (EFP attacks are a
primary casualty producer) --and Sunni (85% of all attacks--80% of US
deaths--16% of Iraqi population.)

Three million Iraqis are internally displaced or have fled the country to
Syria and Jordan. The technical and educated elites are going into
self-imposed exile--a huge brain drain that imperils the ability to govern.
The Maliki government has little credibility among the Shia populations from
which it emerged. It is despised by the Sunni as a Persian surrogate. It is
believed untrustworthy and incompetent by the Kurds.

There is no function of government that operates effectively across the
nation-- not health care, not justice, not education, not transportation,
not labor and commerce, not electricity, not oil production. There is no
province in the country in which the government has dominance. The
government cannot spend its own money effectively. ($7.1 billion sits in New
York banks.) No Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat,
reporter, foreign NGO, nor contractor can walk the streets of Baghdad, nor
Mosul, nor Kirkuk, nor Basra, nor Tikrit, nor Najaf, nor Ramadi--without
heavily armed protection.

The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible
for thousands of extra-judicial killings. There is no effective nation-wide
court system. There are in general almost no acceptable Iraqi penal
institutions. The population is terrorized by rampant criminal gangs
involved in kidnapping, extortion, robbery, rape, massive stealing of public
property --such as electrical lines, oil production material, government
transportation, etc. (Saddam released 80,000 criminal prisoners.)

The Iraqi Army is too small, very badly equipped (inadequate light armor,
junk Soviet small arms, no artillery, no helicopters to speak of, currently
no actual or planned ground attack aircraft of significance, no significant
air transport assets (only three C-130's), no national military logistics
system, no national military medical system, etc. The Iraqi Army is also
unduly dominated by the Shia, and in many battalions lacks discipline. There
is no legal authority to punish Iraqi soldiers or police who desert their
comrades. (The desertion/AWOL numbers frequently leave Iraqi Army battalions
at 50% strength or less.)

In total, enemy insurgents or armed sectarian militias (SCIRI, JAM, Pesh
Merga, AQI, 1920's Brigade, et. al.) probably exceed 100,000 armed fighters.
These non-government armed bands are in some ways more capable of
independent operations than the regularly constituted ISF. They do not
depend fundamentally on foreign support for their operations.

Most of their money, explosives, and leadership are generated inside Iraq.
The majority of the Iraqi population (Sunni and Shia) support armed attacks
on American forces. Although we have arrested 120,000 insurgents (hold
27,000) and killed some huge number of enemy combatants (perhaps 20,000+)
-- the armed insurgents, militias, and Al Qaeda in Iraq without fail
apparently re-generate both leadership cadres and foot soldiers. Their
sophistication, numbers, and lethality go up-- not down-- as they incur
these staggering battle losses.

US domestic support for the war in Iraq has evaporated and will not return.
The great majority of the country thinks the war was a mistake. The US
Congress now has a central focus on constraining the Administration use of
military power in Iraq --and potentially Iran. The losses of US Army,
Marine, and Special Operations Force casualties in Iraq now exceed 27,000
killed and wounded. (Note: The Iraqi Security Forces have suffered more than
49,000 casualties in the last 14 months.) The war costs $9 Billion per
month. Stateside US Army and Marine Corps readiness ratings are starting to
unravel. Ground combat equipment is shot in both the active and reserve
components. Army active and reserve component recruiting has now encountered
serious quality and number problems. In many cases we are forced to use US
contractors to substitute for required military functions. (128,000
contractors in Iraq--includes more than 2000 armed security personnel.)
Waivers in US Army recruiting standards for: moral turpitude, drug use,
medical issues, criminal justice records, and non-high school graduation
have gone up significantly. We now are enlisting 42 year old first term
soldiers. Our promotion rates for officers and NCOs have skyrocketed to
replace departing leaders. There is no longer a national or a theater US
Army strategic reserve. (Fortunately, powerful US Naval, Air Force, and
nuclear capabilities command huge deterrence credibility.)

We are at the "knee of the curve." Two million+ troops of the smallest
active Army force since WWII have served in the war zone. Some active units
have served three, four, or even five combat deployments. We are now
routinely extending nearly all combat units in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
These combat units are being returned to action in some cases with only 7-12
months of stateside time to re-train and re-equip. The current deployment
requirement of 20+ brigades to Iraq and 2+ brigades in Afghanistan is not
sustainable.

We will be forced to call up as many as nine National Guard combat brigades
for an involuntary second combat tour this coming year. (Dr Chu at DOD has
termed this as "no big deal.") Many believe that this second round of
involuntary call-ups will topple the weakened National Guard structure--
which is so central to US domestic security. The National Guard Bureau has
argued for a call up of only 12 months instead of 18 months. This misses the
point--DOD will without fail be forced to also extend these National Guard
brigades in combat at the last minute given the continuation of the current
emergency situation.

Iraq's neighbors are a problem-- not part of the solution (with the
exception of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait). They provide little positive
political or economic support to the Maliki government.

Our allies are leaving to include the courageous and well equipped
Brit's--by January 2008 we will be largely on our own.

In summary, the US Armed Forces are in a position of strategic peril. A
disaster in Iraq will in all likelihood result in a widened regional
struggle which will endanger America's strategic interests (oil) in the
Mid-east for a generation. We will also produce another generation of
soldiers who lack confidence in their American politicians, the media, and
their own senior military leadership.

4. THE CURRENT SITUATION:

This is the situation.

Since the arrival of General David Petraeus in command of Multi-National
Force Iraq-- the situation on the ground has clearly and measurably
improved.

1st: The Maliki government has given the green light to prune out elements
of the renegade Sadr organization in Baghdad. More than 600+ rogue leaders
have been harvested by US and Iraqi special operations forces with the
explicit or tacit consent of the government. Sadr himself has fled to Iran
and many of his key leaders have escaped to the safety of the Shia south.
His fighting cadres were ordered to go to ground, hide their weapons, take
down their check points, stop the terrible ethnic cleansing and terror
tactics against the Sunni population, and ignore (not cooperate) with US and
ISF forces.

2nd: The US and Iraqi Forces have now dramatically changed their operational
scheme. More then 50+ Iraqi Police/Army and US Army Joint Security Stations
(JSS) are now being emplaced across the city and extended into the suburbs.
The pre-operation planning and rehearsals were superb. The presence of these
joint military elements is now becoming ubiquitous across the urban areas.
Although many of these small outposts have been attacked--none has yet been
seriously jeopardized. The Iraqi people are encouraged --life is almost
immediately springing back in many parts of the city. The murder rate has
plummeted. IED attacks on US forces during their formerly vulnerable daily
transits from huge US bases on the periphery of Baghdad are down-- since
these forces are now permanently based in their operational area.

3rd: The Iraqis have finally committed credible numbers of integrated Police
and Army units to the battle of Baghdad.

The strength of IA, IP, and NP units has steadily gone up aided by clever
monetary and troop leader incentives. The ISF formations are showing
increased willingness to aggressively operate against insurgent/militia
forces. Although there is continuing political interference by politicians
of both the Iraqi Administration and legislators-- this is clearly a serious
urban security operation.

4th: There is a real and growing ground swell of Sunni tribal opposition to
the Al Qaeda-in-Iraq terror formations. (90% Iraqi.) This counter-Al Qaeda
movement in Anbar Province was fostered by brilliant US Marine leadership.
There is now unmistakable evidence that the western Sunni tribes are
increasingly convinced that they blundered badly by sitting out the
political process. They are also keenly aware of the fragility of the
continued US military presence that stands between them and a vengeful and
overwhelming Shia-Kurdish majority class-- which was brutally treated by
Saddam and his cruel regime. There is now active combat between Sunni tribal
leadership and AQI terrorists. Of even greater importance, the Sunni tribes
are now supplying their young men as drafts for the Iraqi Police. (IP). AQI
is responding with customary and sickening violence. Police are beheaded in
groups; families of IP officers are murdered (or in one case a 12 year old
boy was run over multiple times by a truck in front of his family)--all
designed to intimidate the tribes. It is not working. The Takfiri AQI
extremism of: no music, no photos, no videos, no cutting of beards, etc does
not sit well with the moderate form of Islam practiced among the western
tribes. This is a crucial struggle and it is going our way--for now.

5th: The equipment and resources for the Iraqi Security Forces has increased
dramatically. The ISF has planned 2007 expenditures of more than
$7.3 billion. The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior are
the only two of 27 Iraqi Ministries that have executed their budgets at 90%
plus satisfactory rates. (General Petraeus is now putting US military
liaison officers in ten additional civilian Ministries to jump start their
budget process.) PM Maliki has pushed to create a larger security force of
more than 100,000 Iraqi Army troops. Thousands (3500) of armored Humvee's,
Cougar and BTR-80 light wheeled armored vehicles (500+), and other equipment
(3500 RPG's, 1400 heavy machine guns, 900+ mortars, 80+ helicopters) are now
flowing into the force. To my great surprise, the Iraqis are using FMS Sales
to execute their capital expenditure program with great effect. This
includes transition to all US small arms for M4 Carbine and M16A2 rifle.
(They will continue to use Soviet type machine guns.) The ISF training
system is beginning to work effectively with their own trainers. (However,
there are still requirements for the more than 5000+ US military and
contract police trainers). The Iraqi training base is cranking out 24,000
soldiers a year from 5 Regional and two national training bases. More than
12 Police Academies are producing 26,000 new police a year. The end goal
will be an Iraqi security force of more than 370,000 Police and Army--
organized in 120 battalions.

6th: Reconciliation of the internal warring elements in Iraq will be how we
eventually win the war in Iraq--if it happens.

There is a very sophisticated and carefully integrated approach by the Iraqi
government and Coalition actors to defuse the armed violence from internal
enemies and bring people into the political process. There are encouraging
signs that the peace and participation message does resonate with many of
the more moderate Sunni and Shia warring factions. Of course, there is no
intent to negotiate with either the extreme Bathist elements or the Al Qaeda
in Iraq terrorists. The UK three star Deputy MNF-I Commander (LTG Graeme
Lamb) has done a superb job with this process.

7th: US Combat forces are simply superb. The Army and Marine brigade,
battalion, and company commanders are the most experienced and talented
leaders in our history. Re-enlistment rates are simply astonishing. The
joint integration of combat power is extremely effective -- but is deemed
unremarkable by the involved units. (I found a Marine battalion-- with all
three of its fighting companies attached from an Army battalion.) These
Marine and Army combat units rapidly employ synchronized air and ground
combat power, use enormous fire discipline, are compassionate with
vulnerable civilians, and move with explosive energy and courage when they
pin a target.

The command and control technology, training, contractor support, and
flexibility of Marine and Army combat formations are magnificent. Digital
data, integrated feed of all live sensors to include persistent "eyes on
target" UAV's, immediate recovery of data in formats that promote
decision-making, and enormous technical competence of battle staff personnel
are hallmarks of the system. The downside is that at division and brigade
level these C3I command posts are not movable. I do not believe that
division or brigade commanders have developed, equipped and rehearsed
Assault CP teams. They simply are not prepared to effectively fight a war of
maneuver. (For example, against the Syrians or Iranians.)

The wariness, adherence to ROE, and discipline of the involved air and
ground forces are awe-inspiring. I watched with fascination the attack video
of an Apache whose pilots held fire at absolutely the last second
--when what they suspected (correctly) was an innocent farmer appeared in
the foreground of a pending Hellfire launch against 5-6 armed insurgents.

The pilot painstakingly changed his attack angle-- and sailed the Hellfire
over the farmer's head and successfully nailed the insurgents.

The attention to detail of US Army and Marine units on Entry Control Points
(ECP's) makes me enormously proud as a former combat platoon leader and
company commander. Week after week--in unbelievably adverse weather (near
freezing to 125 degrees Fahrenheit--the ECP troops man these controlled
access areas which require extreme vigilance if their buddies are to be
protected. I watched several chilling tapes of the instant death suffered by
these brave troops (US or Iraqi) when a suicide bomber actual detonates
himself in the position.

8th: The US Tier One special operations capability is simply magic. They are
deadly in getting their target--with normally zero collateral damage--and
with minimal friendly losses or injuries. Some of these assault elements
have done 200-300 takedown operations at platoon level. The comprehensive
intelligence system is phenomenal. We need to re-think how we view these
forces. They are a national strategic system akin to a B1 bomber. We need to
understand that the required investment level in the creation of these
forces demands substantial dedicated UAV systems, intelligence, and
communications resources. These special operations formations cannot by
themselves win the nation's wars. However, with them we have a tool of
enormous and decisive strategic significance which has crucial importance in
the global war on terrorists.

9th: The US Armed Forces logistic system is successfully providing 100% of
required supplies, services, maintenance, medical support, and material for
battle. Never in the history of warfare has a military force been more
generously and effectively supported than in Iraq. It is also a house of
cards. We need a Joint Logistics command. We need to provide additional
resource muscle to create a more robust LOC thru Jordan to Iraq. We are
overly dependant on civilian contractors. In extreme danger--they will not
fight.

We are overly dependant on Kuwait for logistics. If Iranian military action
closed the Persian Gulf--the US combat force in Iraq would immediately begin
to suffocate logistically. We cannot depend on a Turkish LOC in the coming
five years.

We need 500 USAF C17's and the tanker fleet required to support them. The
Air Force flew 13,000 truck loads of material into Iraq for pinpoint
distribution last year. The two USAF Squadrons of C17's now in-theater make
a gigantic contribution.

The support of Kuwait has been absolutely vital to our war on terror. The
presence of 22,000 US Army Forces, 6000 US contractors, and 1800 Air Force
personnel is crucial to the continuation of military operations in Iraq,
Afghanistan, and the Gulf. Kuwait is the lynchpin of the entire logistics
effort. We send a thousand trucks a day up into Iraq from Kuwait.

It is impressive how effectively we have lowered our signature and footprint
in Kuwait. We have come down from twenty-three bases --to four. Camp Arifjan
has been reduced in size by more than 1/3rd. We need strong continued
diplomatic support and recognition of Kuwait's courageous support of the war
effort.

5. THE WAY AHEAD:

In my judgment, we can still achieve our objective of: a stable Iraq, at
peace with its neighbors, not producing weapons of mass destruction, and
fully committed to a law-based government. The courage and strength of the
US Armed Forces still gives us latitude and time to build the economic and
political conditions that might defuse the ongoing civil war. Our central
purpose is to allow the nation to re-establish governance based on some
loose federal consensus among the three major ethnic-factional actors.
(Shia, Sunni, Kurd.)

We have very little time left. This President will have the remainder of his
months in office beleaguered by his political opponents to the war. The
democratic control of Congress and its vocal opposition can actually provide
a helpful framework within which our brilliant new Ambassador Ryan Crocker
can maneuver the Maliki administration to understand their diminishing
options. It is very unlikely that the US political opposition can
constitutionally force the President into retreat. However, our next
President will only have 12 months or less to get Iraq straight before
he/she is forced to pull the plug. Therefore, our planning horizons should
assume that there are less than 36 months remaining of substantial US troop
presence in Iraq. The insurgency will continue in some form for a decade.
This suggests the fundamental dilemma facing US policymakers.

The US Armed Forces cannot sustain the current deployment rate. We will
leave the nation at risk to other threats from new hostile actors if we
shatter the capabilities of our undersized and under-resourced Army, Marine,
and special operations forces. The Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs
must get Congress to provide emergency levels of resources, manpower, and
energy into this rapidly failing system. If we do not aggressively rebuild
--the capability of the force actually deployed in Iraq will also degrade--
and we are likely to encounter a disaster.

The primary war winning strategy for the United States in the coming 12
months must be for Ambassador Ryan and General Petraeus to focus their
considerable personal leadership skills on getting the top 100 Shia and
Sunni leaders to walk back from the edge of all-out civil war.
Reconciliation is the way out. There will be no imposed military solution
with the current non-sustainable US force levels. Military power cannot
alone defeat an insurgency--the political and economic struggle for power is
the actual field of battle.

A sufficient but not necessary condition of success is adequate resources to
build an Iraqi Army, National Police, local Police, and Border Patrol. We
are still in the wrong ball park. The Iraqis need to capacity to jail
150,000 criminals and terrorists. They must have an air force with 150 US
helicopters. (The US Armed Forces have 100+ medevac helicopters and 700 lift
or attack aircraft in-country.) They need 5000 light armored vehicles for
their ten divisions. They need enough precision, radar-assisted
counter-battery artillery to suppress the constant mortar and rocket attacks
on civilian and military targets. They should have 24 C130's--and perhaps
three squadrons of light ground attack aircraft. I mention these numbers not
to be precise--but to give an order of magnitude estimation that refutes our
current anemic effort. The ISF have taken horrendous casualties. We must
give them the leverage to replace us as our combat formations withdraw in
the coming 36 months.

Finally, we must focus on the creation of a regional dialog led by the
Iraqis with US active participation. The diplomatic process in the short run
is unlikely to produce useful results. However, in the coming five years--it
will be a prerequisite to a successful US military withdrawal
--that we open a neutral and permanent political forum (perhaps in Saudi
Arabia)

in which Iraq's neighbors are drawn into continuing cooperative engagement.
A regional war would be a disaster for 25 years in the Mid-East. A
continuing peace discussion forum may give us the diplomatic leverage to
neutralize these malignant forces that surround and menace Iraq.

6. SUMMARY:

We have brilliant military and civilian leadership on the ground in Iraq.
General Dave Petraeus, LTG Ray Odierno, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have the
country's treasure and combat power at their disposal. Our cause is just.
The consequence of failure will be severe.

The American people hold that the US Armed Forces are the most trusted
institution in our society. The polls also show that domestic opinion is not
calling for precipitous withdrawal. However, this whole Iraq operation is on
the edge of unraveling as the poor Iraqis batter each other to death with
our forces caught in the middle.

We now need a last powerful effort to provide to US leaders on the ground
--the political support, economic reconstruction resources, and military
strength it requires to succeed.

Barry R. McCaffrey General USA (Ret)
Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
USMA, West Point, NY






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