http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18003.htm

The new drumbeat on Iran

The Bush team's latest rationale for bombing Iran is even lamer than
all the previous ones. But hey, Joe Lieberman buys it. Comforted?

By Stephen Kinzer

07/11/07 "The Guardian" -- -- Why attack Iran? War hawks in Washington are
having trouble answering that question. Even their dire warnings about
Iran's nuclear program have not been enough to alarm Americans already weary
of Middle East conflicts.

Now the war drums have taken on a different tone. The Bush administration is
testing a new rationale for attacking Iran: We must strike because Iranians
are killing our soldiers in Iraq.

This is not simply a charge made by one state against another in the hope
that a misguided policy will be changed. It is also part of a calculated
effort to find an argument for bombing Iran that Americans will accept.

The politically ambidextrous Senator Joseph Lieberman, a vigorous supporter
of Israel and the Iraq war, floated the new gambit a couple of weeks ago. He
calculated that Iran-trained units fighting in Iraq, and weapons from Iran
or manufactured with Iranian help, have been responsible for the death of
200 American soldiers.

If Iran does not change course, he said, the United States should "take
aggressive military action against the Iranians to stop them from killing
Americans in Iraq."

Soon afterward, American press officers in Iraq began asserting that Iran is
shipping weapons to Iraqi Shiite militias, specifically "penetrators" that
can make roadside bombs more potent. Then last week a senior American
commander in Iraq, General Kevin Bergner, charged that Iranians had helped
plan a January attack in Karbala that left five American soldiers dead.

"The reality of this is that they're killing American forces," the general
said.

Are Iranians really involved in the Iraq conflict, even arming and training
militia units fighting US troops? Probably. Might factions within the
diffuse, multi-polar Iranian government be encouraging such aid? Possibly.
Iran has deep strategic interests in Iraq, its large, predominantly Shiite
neighbor and longtime rival. It would be unthinkable for Iran to adopt a
"hands-off" policy while Iraq's future is being decided.

By invading Iraq, the United States deposed an old order and arrogated to
itself the right to design a new one. Others - Iraqis, Iranians, Syrians,
Saudis, Kurds, Turks and a host of radical Jihadis - had different ideas.
They have insisted on their right to influence the course of events in a
suddenly chaotic Iraq. Americans threw Iraq up for grabs, and cannot now
complain that many are grabbing for it.

The larger question is whether Iran's involvement in Iraq - even if Iran
could be found directly responsible for the death of Americans - is so
outrageously provocative that it justifies an American attack. History
argues that it is not.

Most American soldiers killed in the Korean War fell victim to mines, bombs
or bullets made in China. General Douglas MacArthur - sounding much like
some in Washington today - wanted to carry the war into China itself.
President Harry Truman wisely refused and, when MacArthur persisted,
relieved him of his command.

During the Vietnam War, the Soviet Union supplied North Vietnam with weapons
and ammunition that killed thousands of American soldiers. Yet no one in the
Johnson or Nixon administrations ever considered attacking Moscow in
retaliation.

Nor did the Sandinista government in Nicaragua try to attack the United
States during the 1980s, when American weapons and American-trained fighters
were killing Nicaraguan soldiers and civilians. Helping friends during
wartime is a tactic as old as proxy war itself.

Accusing Iran of deep involvement in the Iraq war is more than a way to lay
the groundwork for a US attack. It also provides a scapegoat for America's
looming defeat. By this rationale, the American occupation would have
succeeded, and Iraq would now be blooming and tranquil, if only Iran had not
interfered and ruined everything.

Not even Americans are likely to swallow that one. Most reject the various
rationales the Bush administration has so far offered to justify a possible
attack on Iran. If they remain hostile to the idea, President Bush will
eventually have to ask himself a fateful question: Should I attack anyway?

Attacking Iran would accomplish at least one thing Bush must be seeking. It
will assure that future historians will not remember the invasion of Iraq as
his biggest blunder.

***
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/07/12/opinion/12kristof.html?th&emc=th

'Inspiring Progress on Iraq?'

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
NY Times Op-Ed: July 12, 2007

As we debate what to do in Iraq, here are two facts to bear in mind:

First, a poll this spring of Iraqis - who know their country much better
than we do - shows that only 21 percent think that the U.S. troop presence
improves security in Iraq, while 69 percent think it is making security
worse.

Second, the average cost of posting a single U.S. soldier in Iraq has risen
to $390,000 per year, according to a new study by the Congressional Research
Service. This fiscal year alone, Iraq will cost us $135 billion, which
amounts to a bit more than a quarter-million dollars per minute.

We simply can't want to be in Iraq more than the Iraqis want us to be there.
That poll of Iraqis, conducted by the BBC and other news organizations,
found that only 22 percent of Iraqis support the presence of coalition
troops in Iraq, down from 32 percent in 2005.

If Iraqis were pleading with us to stay and quell the violence, maybe we
would have a moral responsibility to stay. But when Iraqis are begging us to
leave, and saying that we are making things worse, then it's remarkably
presumptuous to overrule their wishes and stay indefinitely because, as
President Bush termed it in his speech on Tuesday, "it is necessary work."

We can't afford universal health care at home - but we can afford more than
$10 billion a month so that American troops can be maimed in a country where
they aren't wanted? If we take the total eventual cost of the Iraq war, that
sum could be used to finance health care for all uninsured Americans for
perhaps 30 years.

Or imagine if we invested just two weeks' worth of the Iraq spending to
fight malaria, de-worm children around the globe and reduce maternal
mortality. Those humanitarian projects would save vast numbers of lives and
help restore America's standing in the world.

On Tuesday, Mr. Bush argued that we should give the surge a chance and that
the costs of withdrawal would be enormous.

Just because President Bush says something doesn't mean it is fatuous. It's
true, for example, that our withdrawal may lead to worse horrors in Iraq.
But don't ignore the alternative possibility, believed overwhelmingly by
Iraqis themselves, that our departure will make things better.

Mr. Bush is also right that the surge is only just in place and may still
enjoy modest success. Sectarian violence initially dropped in Baghdad
(although it seems to have risen again since May), and it's impressive to
see Sunni tribes cooperating with us in Anbar against foreign jihadis. Then
again, even the Green Zone is now a daily target, Turkish troops may invade
Kurdistan and brace yourself for battles in Kirkuk between Kurds and Arabs.

Meanwhile, since Mr. Bush announced the surge, 600 American troops have been
killed and 3,000 injured.

But whatever happens on the streets that the Americans patrol, the only
solution in Iraq is political, not military. The surge was supposed to build
political space for that solution, and that is not happening.

Progress has stalled on de-Baathification and constitutional reform,
one-third of Iraq's cabinet is boycotting the government and people are
turning to sectarian militias for protection. The Pentagon itself reported
last month that 52 percent of Baghdad residents say that militias are
serving the interest of the Iraqi people.

In this desperate situation, the last best hope to break the stalemates in
Iraqi politics will come if Congress forces Iraqi politicians to peer over
the abyss at the prospect of their country on its own. If Congress makes it
clear that the U.S. is heading for the exits - and that we want no permanent
bases in Iraq - that may undercut the extremists and lead more Iraqis to
focus on preserving their nation rather than expelling the infidels.

It's nice that Mr. Bush is still confident about Iraq, telling us on
Tuesday: "I strongly believe that we will prevail."

Apparently, we're doing almost as well today as we were in October 2003 when
he blamed journalists for filtering out the good news and declared: "We're
making really good progress."

Then in September 2004, Mr. Bush assured us that Iraq was "making steady
progress." In April 2005: "We're making good progress in Iraq." In October
2005: "Iraq has made incredible political progress." In November 2005:
"Iraqis are making inspiring progress."

Do we really want to continue making this kind of inspiring progress for the
next 10 years?

You are invited to comment on this column at Mr. Kristof's blog,
www.nytimes.com/ontheground.



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