Food riots of the 21st century Jonathan Watts
06 January 2008 11:59 DisplayDCAd('220x240','1','');
The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two years as
the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at any time in 50
years, according to one of the worlds leading agricultural researchers.
Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion
demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability to come
unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple foods, warned
Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute.
The growing appetite of China and other fast-developing nations has combined
with the expansion of biofuel programmes in the United States and Europe to
transform the global food situation.
After decades of expanding crop yields and falling food prices, the past year
has seen a sharp rise in the cost of wheat, rice, corn, soya and dairy products.
Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for
five years now. Stocks of grain and of rice, wheat and maize are down at levels
not seen since the early 1980s, said Von Braun, whose organisation is the
worlds largest alliance of agricultural researchers, economists and policy
experts.
So far, crises have been averted because states have eaten into national
stocks, but this could be set to change because China, in particular, has run
down its supplies.
Over the next 12 to 24 months we are in a fairly risky situation. Large
consuming nations, particularly China, will feel pressed to enter international
markets to bid up prices to unusual levels, Von Braun warned ahead of a speech
to the institutes AGM in Beijing.
Thanks to its manufacturing prowess China has huge foreign exchange reserves
and could buy the global food crop several times over. But its consumers are
already feeling the cost of food inflation. According to the local media three
shoppers died last month in a stampede at a supermarket in Chongqing that was
offering cheap rapeseed oil. The threat of instability has prompted Prime
Minister Wen Jiabao to make the fight against food price rises one of his
governments priorities. So far it seems a losing battle.
Economic growth -- estimated at 11,5% in the first nine months of the year --
has made Chinese consumers wealthier, while urbanisation and globalisation has
changed their diet. In October the government announced pork prices were up
more than 50%, vegetables 30% and cooking oil 34% compared with the year before.
The knock-on is felt across the world. In rich nations it means a few more
cents for breakfast cereal in the short term and a slightly higher cost for
toys, clothes and other Chinese goods. But for the worlds poorest communities
the rises will have a potentially devastating effect.
Bangladesh has had to ask for half a million tons of food aid -- a severe blow
to the pride of a country that had been trying to wean itself off international
assistance. Bangladeshi officials say the price of cooking oil, of which it
imports 1,2-million tons a year, has almost tripled in the past two years
because it is now valued as an alternative to diesel oil. More worryingly,
their main staple of rice is hard to buy at any price because India, Vietnam
and Ukraine have cut exports.
Added to this are the pressures caused by global warming, which have been
blamed for the droughts that damaged crops in Australia this year.
The social tensions caused by rising food prices are already evident, says Von
Braun. The first sign was the tortilla riot in Mexico city, where 70 000 took
to the streets. I think that was only the beginning -- there will be more,
said Von Braun.
For a year or two countries can stabilise with stocks. But the risk comes in
the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to buy will be the
losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves will bid up the world
market.
Von Braun called on Europe to reconsider its biofuel policies, to provide more
aid to poor nations, to keep markets open and to boost production. -- ©
Guardian News & Media Ltd 2007
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?area=/insight/insight__international/&articleId=328941
---------------------------------
Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! Search.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subscribe: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Digest: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Help: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
