Right now, the US economy is still 6 times the 
size of China's, but China is growing almost six 
times faster. The per capita gap is astounding though.--MN

China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy
Aly Song/Reuters

The Lujiazui Financial Area in Shanghai. China 
has begun to reshape the way the global economy functions.
By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: August 15, 2010

SHANGHAI — After three decades of spectacular 
growth, China passed Japan in the second quarter 
to become the world’s second-largest economy 
behind the United States, according to government 
figures released early Monday.

The milestone, though anticipated for some time, 
is the most striking evidence yet that China’s 
ascendance is for real and that the rest of the 
world will have to reckon with a new economic superpower.

The recognition came early Monday, when Tokyo 
said that Japan’s economy was valued at about 
$1.28 trillion in the second quarter, slightly 
below China’s $1.33 trillion. Japan’s economy 
grew 0.4 percent in the quarter, Tokyo said, 
substantially less than forecast. That weakness 
suggests that China’s economy will race past Japan’s for the full year.

Experts say unseating Japan — and in recent years 
passing Germany, France and Great Britain — 
underscores China’s growing clout and bolsters 
forecasts that China will pass the United States 
as the world’s biggest economy as early as 2030. 
America’s gross domestic product was about $14 trillion in 2009.

“This has enormous significance,” said Nicholas 
R. Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute 
for International Economics. “It reconfirms 
what’s been happening for the better part of a 
decade: China has been eclipsing Japan 
economically. For everyone in China’s region, 
they’re now the biggest trading partner rather than the U.S. or Japan.”

For Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for 
more than a decade, the figures reflect a decline 
in economic and political power. Japan has had 
the world’s second-largest economy for much of 
the last four decades, according to the World 
Bank. And during the 1980s, there was even talk 
about Japan’s economy some day overtaking that of the United States.

But while Japan’s economy is mature and its 
population quickly aging, China is in the throes 
of urbanization and is far from developed, 
analysts say, meaning it has a much lower 
standard of living, as well as a lot more room to 
grow. Just five years ago, China’s gross domestic 
product was about $2.3 trillion, about half of Japan’s.

This country has roughly the same land mass as 
the United States, but it is burdened with a 
fifth of the world’s population and insufficient resources.

Its per capita income is more on a par with those 
of impoverished nations like Algeria, El Salvador 
and Albania — which, along with China, are close 
to $3,600 — than that of the United States, where it is about $46,000.

Yet there is little disputing that under the 
direction of the Communist Party, China has begun 
to reshape the way the global economy functions 
by virtue of its growing dominance of trade, its 
huge hoard of foreign exchange reserves and 
United States government debt and its voracious 
appetite for oil, coal, iron ore and other natural resources.

China is already a major driver of global growth. 
The country’s leaders have grown more confident 
on the international stage and have begun to 
assert greater influence in Asia, Africa and 
Latin America, with things like special trade 
agreements and multibillion dollar resource deals.

“They’re exerting a lot of influence on the 
global economy and becoming dominant in Asia,” 
said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor of trade policy 
at Cornell and former head of the International 
Monetary Fund’s China division. “A lot of other 
economies in the region are essentially riding on 
China’s coat tails, and this is remarkable for an 
economy with a low per capita income.”

In Japan, the mood was one of resignation. Though 
increasingly eclipsed by Beijing on the world 
stage, Japan has benefited from a booming China, 
initially by businesses moving production there 
to take advantage of lower wages and, as local 
incomes have risen, by tapping a large and 
increasingly lucrative market for Japanese goods.

Beijing is also beginning to shape global 
dialogues on a range of issues, analysts said; 
for instance, last year it asserted that the 
dollar must be phased out as the world’s primary reserve currency.

And while the United States and the European 
Union are struggling to grow in the wake of the 
worst economic crisis in decades, China has 
continued to climb up the economic league tables 
by investing heavily in infrastructure and 
backing a $586 billion stimulus plan.

This year, although growth has begun to moderate 
a bit, China’s economy is forecast to expand 
about 10 percent — continuing a remarkable 
three-decade streak of double-digit growth.

“This is just the beginning,” said Wang Tao, an 
economist at UBS in Beijing. “China is still a 
developing country. So it has a lot of room to 
grow. And China has the biggest impact on 
commodity prices — in Russia, India, Australia and Latin America.” 



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