---- Original Message -----
From: John A Imani
To: [email protected] ; [email protected] ;
[email protected]
Cc: May 19th Movement
Sent: Thursday, November 18, 2010 10:28 AM
Subject: Economist: Millions of jobless will soon be left without benefits
"America's unemployment-insurance system can no longer cope with a problem
of this size."
"The economy is still running 7.5m jobs short of its previous peak."
"2m workers may lose their benefits by the end of the year. The total could
rise to 4m by the end of April..."
Unemployment insurance
Cold comfort
Millions of jobless Americans will soon be left without benefits
Nov 11th 2010 http://www.economist.com/node/17465273
AFTER a summer of idling, America's job-creation machine spluttered back into
life in October. The economy added 151,000 jobs last month, its best
performance since May. Private job growth rose even more, by 159,000,
compensating for a continued decline in government payrolls. But the October
surge was not enough to bring down America's 9.6% unemployment rate. As a
result, it looks as though severe joblessness will outlive the programmes
intended to address it.
America's recession, a post-war record in terms of length and depth, has left
the country with unprecedented long-term unemployment. In October 6.2m people
were listed as having been out of work for more than six months, and the
average duration of unemployment now stands at 34 weeks, well above the
previous post-war record of 20.5 weeks. Government unemployment benefits keep
up living standards among the jobless, and so help stabilise a weak economy by
bolstering consumer demand. But America's unemployment-insurance system can no
longer cope with a problem of this size.
Benefits normally last for just six months. When unemployment is high, extended
benefits kick in, adding an additional 13 to 20 weeks of benefits, varying by
state. During recessions the federal government will often go further. Thus in
June 2008 Congress authorised a big package of emergency benefits, which now
cover workers in 27 hard-hit states (those with unemployment rates above 8%)
for up to 99 weeks. In the wake of a "normal" recession, that would be more
than enough time for workers to find new jobs. This one has not been normal.
The economy is still running 7.5m jobs short of its previous peak. A growing
number of people are exhausting their unemployment benefits without finding new
work. The problem will worsen sharply this winter, as the bulge of 5m workers
who lost their jobs in the months after the financial meltdown of autumn 2008
notch up 99 weeks of unemployment. And in April, the emergency benefits all
expire anyway. Congress has debated but failed to address the challenge posed
by "the 99ers". Republicans blocked in September the last serious effort to add
a new tier of benefits beyond 99 weeks.
Our interactive US Guide compares American economics, demographics and politics
Congress has been required regularly to reauthorise even the existing extra
benefits and, with each renewal, passage has been harder. In February Jim
Bunning, a Republican senator from Kentucky, forced a delay to the renewal.
When the deadline next came up, in early June, Congress at first failed to
reapprove the programme, leaving 2.5m people without benefits for a time. Yet
another showdown looms at the end of this month.
Democrats may try to squeeze through a reauthorisation of the benefits in the
"lame-duck" session between now and the end of the year, but Republicans,
flushed from November's electoral victories, are unlikely to give their
support. Time is short, and other priorities, such as extending George Bush's
tax cuts, may come first. Republicans argue that benefits discourage people
from seeking work, although economists at the Federal Reserve attribute less
than one percentage point of the unemployment rate to this effect.
Meanwhile, the National Employment Law Project estimates that 2m workers may
lose their benefits by the end of the year. The total could rise to 4m by the
end of April, when the existing emergency benefits programme expires and those
still enrolled in it face the termination of their benefits. That will be bad
for the economy, as well as the unemployed. Those without jobs or benefits may
not show up on the monthly unemployment count: but they still suffer, and still
spend a lot less.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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