---- Original Message ----- 
From: John A Imani 
To: [email protected] ; [email protected] ; 
[email protected] 
Cc: May 19th Movement 
Sent: Thursday, November 18, 2010 10:28 AM
Subject: Economist: Millions of jobless will soon be left without benefits 


    "America's unemployment-insurance system can no longer cope with a problem 
of this size."
    "The economy is still running 7.5m jobs short of its previous peak."
    "2m workers may lose their benefits by the end of the year. The total could 
rise to 4m by the end of April..." 
Unemployment insurance
Cold comfort
Millions of jobless Americans will soon be left without benefits 
Nov 11th 2010 http://www.economist.com/node/17465273

AFTER a summer of idling, America's job-creation machine spluttered back into 
life in October. The economy added 151,000 jobs last month, its best 
performance since May. Private job growth rose even more, by 159,000, 
compensating for a continued decline in government payrolls. But the October 
surge was not enough to bring down America's 9.6% unemployment rate. As a 
result, it looks as though severe joblessness will outlive the programmes 
intended to address it.


America's recession, a post-war record in terms of length and depth, has left 
the country with unprecedented long-term unemployment. In October 6.2m people 
were listed as having been out of work for more than six months, and the 
average duration of unemployment now stands at 34 weeks, well above the 
previous post-war record of 20.5 weeks. Government unemployment benefits keep 
up living standards among the jobless, and so help stabilise a weak economy by 
bolstering consumer demand. But America's unemployment-insurance system can no 
longer cope with a problem of this size.

Benefits normally last for just six months. When unemployment is high, extended 
benefits kick in, adding an additional 13 to 20 weeks of benefits, varying by 
state. During recessions the federal government will often go further. Thus in 
June 2008 Congress authorised a big package of emergency benefits, which now 
cover workers in 27 hard-hit states (those with unemployment rates above 8%) 
for up to 99 weeks. In the wake of a "normal" recession, that would be more 
than enough time for workers to find new jobs. This one has not been normal. 

The economy is still running 7.5m jobs short of its previous peak. A growing 
number of people are exhausting their unemployment benefits without finding new 
work. The problem will worsen sharply this winter, as the bulge of 5m workers 
who lost their jobs in the months after the financial meltdown of autumn 2008 
notch up 99 weeks of unemployment. And in April, the emergency benefits all 
expire anyway. Congress has debated but failed to address the challenge posed 
by "the 99ers". Republicans blocked in September the last serious effort to add 
a new tier of benefits beyond 99 weeks.
Our interactive US Guide compares American economics, demographics and politics 
Congress has been required regularly to reauthorise even the existing extra 
benefits and, with each renewal, passage has been harder. In February Jim 
Bunning, a Republican senator from Kentucky, forced a delay to the renewal. 
When the deadline next came up, in early June, Congress at first failed to 
reapprove the programme, leaving 2.5m people without benefits for a time. Yet 
another showdown looms at the end of this month. 

Democrats may try to squeeze through a reauthorisation of the benefits in the 
"lame-duck" session between now and the end of the year, but Republicans, 
flushed from November's electoral victories, are unlikely to give their 
support. Time is short, and other priorities, such as extending George Bush's 
tax cuts, may come first. Republicans argue that benefits discourage people 
from seeking work, although economists at the Federal Reserve attribute less 
than one percentage point of the unemployment rate to this effect. 

Meanwhile, the National Employment Law Project estimates that 2m workers may 
lose their benefits by the end of the year. The total could rise to 4m by the 
end of April, when the existing emergency benefits programme expires and those 
still enrolled in it face the termination of their benefits. That will be bad 
for the economy, as well as the unemployed. Those without jobs or benefits may 
not show up on the monthly unemployment count: but they still suffer, and still 
spend a lot less. 


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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