the Cuban government has been playing with the Vatican and the Catholic Church recently ala the style of Poland in its relationships with one another, someone should remind Raul the role the Catholic Church played in the restoration of capitalism in Poland also... Cort --- Vatican worries about 'bloodshed' in Cuba
Cites political tensions and 'disastrous' economy The Vatican "is concerned that the disastrous economic situation [in Cuba] and political tension could lead to bloodshed," according to an American diplomat's message to the State Department, disclosed by WikiLeaks and published by the Spanish newspaper El País. [image: (fot6)]<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b26169e20147e095c502970b-pi>The message, dated Jan. 21 of this year, was sent by the U.S. ambassador <http://www.catholicnews.com/data/stories/cns/0902431.htm>to the Holy See, Havana-born *Miguel H. Díaz*, after a meeting with the Vatican's specialist on Cuba, Monsignor Angelo Accatino. It says, in part: "The Vatican's point person on Cuba, Monsignor Accattino, supports EU dialogue with Cuba and said the U.S. should refrain from unilateral actions against Cuba that play into the hands of the Castros or [Venezuelan President] Hugo Chávez. This is particularly true, he said, of decisions like identifying Cubans as nationals of particular concern in air travel. "The Vatican is concerned that the disastrous economic situation on the island and political tension could lead to bloodshed." Regarding engagement with Cuba, Accatino "thought that the island's blatantly poor human rights record should not block engagement with Cuba any more than it does with other rights-abusing nations. After all, he said, the U.S. and the EU engage other countries that violate human rights, like China. [...] "Looking ahead, Accattino said Cuba's economic and social situations are becoming so bad that people could react violently. If that happens, he added, some in and outside of Cuba could blame the U.S. for having contributed to the situation. The U.S. should not allow itself to be held hostage by domestic politics to maintain the current 'counterproductive policy.' "Accattino reiterated the Vatican line about always engaging in dialogue, no matter how unpleasant the interlocutor. He also made it clear that the Vatican is far more concerned about Chávez than Raúl Castro, considering him more dangerous and with a longer reach (not to mention younger). "For this reason, the Vatican has welcomed recent USG [U.S. Government] gestures towards Cuba warmly and advocates further USG actions that, the Vatican believes, would make it increasingly difficult for Caracas or Havana to blame Cuba's economic and social failures on Washington." To read the entire cable, click here<http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Cable/embargo/Cuba/elpepuint/20101210elpepuint_16/Tes> . Read more: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/2010/12/vatican-worries-about-bloodshed-in-cuba.html#more#ixzz17vtdh74f In USINT's view, Cuba's outlook is grim There is "little prospect of economic reform in 2010 despite an economic crisis that is expected to get even worse for Cuba in the next few years," says a Feb. 9, 2010, message <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/248021>from the U.S. Interests Section in Havana to the State Department, citing "key commercial specialists, economic officers and Cuba-watchers in Havana." The message was disclosed by WikiLeaks and published by the British newspaper The Guardian [image: (jdf)]<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b26169e20147e08aa5af970b-pi>"Promised structural reforms remain on hold while the Cuban government wrings its hands in indecision, fearful of the political consequences of these long-overdue changes," says an introductory summary by *Jonathan Farrar*, the USINT's chief of mission. "The one potentially significant reform implemented in 2009, the leasing of idle land, has not been effective. The Cuban government (GOC) could be forced to speed up reforms in the event of a significant reduction of assistance from an increasingly unstable Venezuela. "Otherwise, the GOC will continue to prioritize military-led control and aim for a slow, measured pace of reform focused on agriculture and import substitution. The Cuban people have grown accustomed to tough times and will respond to future government belt tightening with similar endurance." The assessment was written after the USINT "hosted a breakfast with commercial and economic counselors from six of Cuba's seven largest trading partners, including China, Spain, Canada, (the U.S.), Brazil and Italy, plus key creditors France and Japan." Here are some of the findings: "The global financial crisis and the inability to service foreign debt will make the dire situation in Cuba even worse in 2010, according to EU diplomats. Brazil was a bit more optimistic noting that Cuba can still withstand more economic hardship. "All diplomats agreed that Cuba could survive this year without substantial policy changes, but the financial situation could become fatal within 2-3 years. Italy said GOC contacts had suggested Cuba would become insolvent as early as 2011. [...] "Exports and other sources of foreign currency (tourism and remittances) are unlikely to increase substantially without a dramatic global turnaround, access to U.S. markets or an opening to U.S. tourists. [...] "Regarding increasing production, the only significant reform in the last five years, the leasing of idle land to improve agricultural production, has little chance of succeeding as implemented. The diplomats noted that many of the Cubans that were granted land have no farming experience, and the few farmers with experience have limited access to capital, tools and markets. "Payment problems continue for all countries. Despite once again restructuring all of its official debt in 2009, Japan has yet to see any payments. Even China admitted to having problems getting paid on time and complained about Cuban requests to extend credit terms from one to four years. Foreign investors have been treated poorly in Cuba and new investors will demand additional protections and guarantees, according to the French. [...] "Despite the grave analysis, none of our contacts foresee meaningful economic reform in 2010. Immediate reform is neither necessary nor politically advisable since it has the potential of being too politically 'destabilizing,' said the Brazilian [counselor]. [...] "If [image: (fot5)]<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b26169e20147e08aacb2970b-pi>reform is driven by domestic factors it will be slow and hesitant. Unlike former president *Fidel Castro, Raúl Castro *needs the "support of the machine" to make changes, according to the Canadians. Raúl Castro's National Assembly speech in December made it clear that the GOC is in no hurry to reform, argued the Italians. [...] "In lieu of structural reforms, the GOC will continue to take small steps to increase domestic production and reduce imports, focusing on lifting agricultural production from its current lamentable state. The GOC has started on a slow and steady path, according to the Canadians. [...] "Even limited reforms could open up private sector opportunities (e.g., permitting cooperatives to operate barber shops, restaurants or retail stores), but in general the military will continue to expand its influence in core economic activities. [...] The Cuban economy is increasingly run by military engineers that are capable of running the day-to-day business activities, but do not have the vision to enact reforms or lead the country out of the economic mess of centralized state planning. "As a result, several of our colleagues commented that leadership of the Cuban economy is more centralized this year. [...] All agreed that decision-making circles are small and increasingly isolated. [...] "In the short term, the GOC will require even more belt tightening from the Cuban people. [...] Everyone agreed that the Cuban people could withstand more hardship, although the Italians questioned whether further economic tightening would end up weakening and delegitimizing the GOC further." In a final comment, Farrar writes: "Despite how badly Cuba needs them, significant economic reforms are unlikely in 2010, especially with the continued delay of a policy-revising Communist Party Congress. "The GOC's direction and leadership remains muddled and unclear, in great measure because its leaders are paralyzed by fear that reforms will loosen the tight grip on power that they have held for over 50 years. "Faced with political uncertainty regarding future Cuban leadership and relations with the United States, the Cuban people are more likely to endure a slow erosion of state subsidies than a much-needed radical restructuring." To read the entire cable, as published by The Guardian, click here<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/248021> . December 09, 2010 in Current Affairs<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/current_affairs/>, Fidel Castro <http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/fidel_castro/>, Raul Castro <http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/raul_castro/>, U.S.-Cuba relations <http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/washington_dc/> | Permalink<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/2010/12/in-usints-view-cubas-outlook-is-grim.html> TrackBack TrackBack URL for this entry: http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451b26169e20148c69419b3970c Listed below are links to weblogs that reference In USINT's view, Cuba's outlook is grim<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/2010/12/in-usints-view-cubas-outlook-is-grim.html> : Read more: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/2010/12/in-usints-view-cubas-outlook-is-grim.html#more#ixzz17vsjBneY<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/cuban_colada/2010/12/in-usints-view-cubas-outlook-is-grim.html#more%23ixzz17vsjBneY> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Digest: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Help: <mailto:[email protected]?subject=laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yahoo! 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