Can Mubarak survive the revolt?
By John Simpson
BBC News, Alexandria
The much hated police have now been replaced by the army in Alexandria
Egypt Unrest
The
protests in Alexandria - like those in Cairo - have been completely
peaceful on Saturday and Sunday after the brutality of last Friday, when
the police shot down and killed around 30 demonstrators in the city.
Two of them were buried on Sunday, and many thousands of people turned
out for their funeral service.
Some things are different in Alexandria - it still is a
moderate city. But there is a noticeably stronger religious element here
than there is in Cairo.
In other ways, though, things are very much the same: the anger against
President Hosni Mubarak has the same intensity.
And Mr Mubarak's tactics are the same as well: the army has
now been given the task of dealing with the demonstrators, rather than
the much more hated police who did the job until Friday's shootings.
The army's tactics seem to be to let the demonstrations peter out
rather than to stop them with force.
So far here - as in Cairo and elsewhere - this system has worked, but
the dangers are always present.
President Mubarak seems determined not to cut and run as Tunisia's leader
did
'The best' scenario
It seems clear that the Americans have warned President Mubarak
urgently that there must be no more killings.
Can he survive with such vocal opposition in the streets?
He seems determined not to cut and run as President Ben Ali
of Tunisia did, and the Americans can't want that either. The power
vacuum it would create would be very dangerous indeed.
From the American point of view, the best thing that could
happen would be a peaceful end to the protests, the retirement of Mr
Mubarak and the continuation of some part (at least) of the system which
he has created - shorn, hopefully, of its corruption.
It won't be easy and it won't appeal greatly to the
demonstrators, who have condemned Mr Mubarak's entire political
structure and want to bring it down.
Perhaps, though, stripping out his closest and older associates might
just do the job.
So much of it depends on the demonstrators themselves: if
they hold out - an easy transition to one of Mr Mubarak's associates
will be much harder.
If, though, the shortages in the shops, the looting that has
been going on and the general desire to get back to ordinary life bring a
gradual end to the protest, then the system - if not the president
himself - might survive in power.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12320796
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe: <mailto:[email protected]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subscribe: <mailto:[email protected]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Digest: <mailto:[email protected]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Help: <mailto:[email protected]?subject=laamn>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post: <mailto:[email protected]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
[email protected]
[email protected]
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[email protected]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
