http://www.marxist.com/german-regional-elections-voters-seek-alternative.htm

 German Regional Elections: Voters seek alternative to Merkel's
government<http://www.marxist.com/german-regional-elections-voters-seek-alternative.htm>
Written by Walter Held Wednesday, 13 April 2011
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*The coalition government of Angela Merkel of the CDU, CSU and FDP in
Berlin, known by the colours of these parties as “black-yellow”, has lost a
significant amount of its support since the election victory of September
2009.*

Four Regional Land elections in 2011 have documented the melting away of the
coalition's voting strength signalled mainly by the huge decline in the
support for the more right-wing FDP, first in the northern metropolis of
Hamburg in February, then in the south-eastern Sachsen-Anhalt and now in two
south-western states, the Rhineland Palatinate (RP) and Baden-Wuerttemberg
(BW) on Sunday 27th March.

The background was, of course, the efforts to recover from the deep economic
crisis affecting all major capitalist countries. The CDU and Bavarian CSU
had been in coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) up to September 2009;
the SPD came out of that period of crisis and cuts and anti-working class
legislation with its worst result in post-war German history with only 23%
of the votes, cementing the Social Democrats' loss of 6 million (!) votes
over a nine year period, half of its electoral support. Fully one-third of
the party's members left in the period, disappointed with the SPD's
neoliberal line. Many dropped out of political activity but numbers of
activists joined Die Linke, the Left Party boosting its membership overall
to 70,000 and its electoral support throughout most of Germany, with the
party gaining seats in regional parliaments in 13 of the 16 federal states.

But Diie Linke has only a very small share of the vote in the older western
federal states, often only just clearing the 5% hurdle imposed before any
seats are allocated. In the new eastern states, Die Linke enjoys a quite
different level of support, often between 20% and 30% because of its roots
in municipal councils. Thus, in Sachsen Anhalt, Die Linke is the second
largest party, evidence of the fact that Die Linke is not one, but two,
political parties with the eastern party acting as a tribune for the
regional and local interests of the old GDR area, much as the CSU lobbies
heavily for its constituency, Bavaria.

In Hamburg, the SPD did reconquer a majority of votes in February, mainly
because the Greens had taken part in a coalition with the CDU in that city.
But in Sachsen-Anhalt the SPD came in third behind the CDU and Die Linke
after a bout of coalition with the local CDU. As if to insult the voters
again, the miserable SPD leadership is choosing to renew a coalition with
the CDU in that Land, rejecting calls by the larger Die Linke to form a
red-red coalition with a programme of reforms! Disappointed with the SPD
overall, the two latest Land elections display what has happened to a mass
of protest voters; abandoning the SPD in large numbers in RP and many in BW,
those who wanted to show their opposition to Merkel's policies have voted
for the Green Party in record numbers. Sensationally, in BW the Greens
actually overtook the SPD to become the second largest party and are now
probably in a position to take the leadership and the First Minister post in
that Land, breaking the CDU's hold which has lasted for over fifty years.

What the Greens have done is to initiate and ride the wave of anti-nuclear
power feeling which, although latent but growing for years, has suddenly
been massively fuelled by the Japanese fiasco in Fukushima. Indeed, on the
Saturday prior to the latest Land elections, up to 200,000 people
demonstrated in Germany's four largest cities against nuclear power. Taken
together with other local issues such as the unpopular redesign of the main
railway station down in Stuttgart, the Greens have been in the forefront of
organising protest demos, sit-ins, marches and steady propaganda work for
decades, whereas the tired old SPD has been pursuing policies against the
interests of the broad population and confining itself to routinist
parliamentary committees and manoeuvres. Only recently, having been thrust
out of the Grand Coalition with Merkel in 2009, has the SPD begun to
reawaken and has been present on demonstrations and rallies, for example
against the threatened closure of the Opel car factories and other issues.
Die Linke, by contrast, has been stagnating for years on the sidelines,
unable to develop policies which appeal to the new generation or to break
out of 5-8% of voting strength, viewed with suspicion by most workers and
seen as either utopian or destructive or a potentially new edition of
Stalinism.

No surprise then, that the Greens have been able to recruit thousands of
young middle-aged and younger, often well educated and conscientious, people
to its flag. In fact the Greens are highly inconsistent in their politics as
has already been and will again be shown in the coming period. They
abandoned their antiwar stance in Afghanistan, they half-heartedly oppose
the plans for Stuttgart, and they even took part in a coalition government
in Hamburg with the CDU until thrown out in February. So it would be wrong
to see them as a new left party or even as a reliable protest party. They
purged most of their own left wing years ago. And while they preach some
good reforms such as abolition of student fees, their policies on the
economy are thoroughly pro-capitalist and at best Keynesian reformist. Their
record in a neoliberal coalition government with Schroeder appears to have
been forgotten. The fact that such a party can make such large gains is
testimony to the bankrupt position of the SPD in almost all areas. The
still-tainted Die Linke is deriving no benefit from this scenario. There is,
however, some cause for optimism that a left wing is beginning to form in
and around left positions in the social democracy. Local and regional ad hoc
groups involving SPD and Die Linke and some Green councillors and members of
citizens' neighbourhood groups are beginning to join together to move
against the cuts which are starting to cause closures of public services
such as libraries, swimming pools, etc. And it is certainly true that the
old workers' organisations can only regain their former strength by shaking
off the paralysis of Schroeder's neoliberal policies and returning to
representing the real interests of the rank and file movement.

*Results in Hamburg*
February 2011 (2008 in brackets)
CDU 21.9% (42.6%) SPD 48.4% (34.1%) Greens 11,2% (9.6%) Linke 6.4% (6.4%)

*Results in Sachsen Anhalt*
March 2011 (2006 in brackets)
CDU 32.5% (36.2%) Linke 23.7% (24.1%) SPD 21.5% (21.6%) Greens 7.1% (3.6%)

*Results in RP*
March 2011 (2006 in brackets)
SPD 35.7% (46.6%) CDU 35.2% (32.8%) Greens 15.4% (4.6%)

*Results in BW*
March 2011 (2006 in brackets)
CDU 39% (44.2%) Greens 24.2% (11.7%) SPD 23.1% (25.2%)

(29.3.2011)
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