http://www.juancole.com/2011/08/rebels-claim-leader-of-feared-khamis-brigade-dead.html

 Rebels claim Leader of Feared Khamis Brigade
Dead<http://www.juancole.com/2011/08/rebels-claim-leader-of-feared-khamis-brigade-dead.html>

Posted on 08/05/2011 by Juan

*Free Libya forces* <http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=14232201> are making
unconfirmed allegations that Gen. Khamis Qaddafi has been killed in a NATO
airstrike on a military outpost at Zlitan near Misrata.

Khamis leads the feared Khamis Brigades, who are accused of using tanks,
artillery and cluster bombs against civilians in Misrata. The Brigades is
among the most lethal units among the Qaddafi brigades. (See *this
account*<http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37551&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=f0b3ef8200af7c3a039bc6f593c6ffc6>.)
Khamis has been incorrectly declared dead before, so caution is in order.

But if the report were true, it would be a major blow to Muammar Qaddafi’s
attempts to remain in power.

*Qaddafi’s eldest son,
*<http://www.vancouversun.com/mobile/iphone/story.html?id=5210532>Saif
al Islam, now says he will ally with Libya’s Muslim fundamentalists in order
to stay in power. The Qaddafis have long argued that the West should support
them because the alternative is the fundamentalists. But in recent months
they keep threatening to join al-Qaeda, so that rationale has collapsed.

*David Zucchino’s excellent
piece*<http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/03/world/la-fg-libya-rebels-mood-20110803>on
the mood in Benghazi and the economic difficulties facing the Free
Libya
regions in the east accords with what I have heard from other recent
visitors to Benghazi. No one can understand why there hasn’t been more
humanitarian aid, given the poor economy. No one thinks the war will be over
soon. The mood in Benghazi cheered considerably Thursday when an oil tanker
made a big delivery.

The handful of recent visitors to whom I spoke are divided on the likelihood
of the rebels’ long term success.

But logically speaking there are only four likely outcomes.

1. Qaddafi wins and conquers the East

2. The Free Libya forces over time win and take Tripoli

3. Elites in Tripoli overthrow Qaddafi and seek a national unity government
with Benghazi

4. The country is partitioned

The UN allies won’t allow Qaddafi to take the east and massacre and imprison
thousands, however much Alexander Cockburn, the Tea Party, and the World
Socialist Web site would like to see that happen, or at least they object to
practical steps to prevent it.

I don’t think a partition would be stable. Given international sanctions,
Qaddafi’s part would grow weak, his weapons would degrade for lack of spare
parts, and eventually he would fall to a wealthier and better-supplied
Benghazi.

So most likely either there will eventually be a coup against Qaddafi in
Tripoli or the rebels will win in the end.

The two Balkans interventions showed that air intervention is slow,
difficult, & frustrating. But the alternative is to stand by while a
Srebenica takes place.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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