---------------------------------------- http://www.maysaloon.org/2012/07/syria-analysis.html
Syria: An Analysis <http://www.maysaloon.org/2012/07/syria-analysis.html> Last Wednesday was a milestone for the Syrian revolution. It is clear now that the Free Syrian Army have been re-organising and changing their methods. No longer do they try to hold ground in the face of the Syrian army. Instead, they are engaged in what can only be described as a textbook guerrilla war. I think this change has taken place since their disastrous attempt to make a stand at Bab Amr in Homs. Since then, they have been striking the regime wherever it is weak, melting away when it tries to strike back, and have been reorganising themselves. Having taken over parts of Damascus for the past few days, they are now declaring the battle for the liberation of Aleppo begun. It seems now that they have abandoned their initial attempt to wrest control of Damascus. On one level these might seem as wild exaggerations, but on the other this might be an attempt at dissimulation and misinformation. In doing so they would keep the Assad regime constantly guessing where they will strike next, and reacting rather defining the pace of the war. Gone are the days when the Syrian army would declare campaigns for this or that region of the country. It seems to me now that they are going to be dragged to exhaustion by constant attacks throughout the country. The taking over of border checkpoints is not much use, but it is politically significant, and means that the regime has to keep troops at the borders, constantly chasing after units there rather than keeping them close to its power bases As for Manaf Tlass, there is still no sign of the man. He has yet to make the promised speech declaring his intentions for the future, and yet to make a public appearance. More and more pictures of him with his cigar are in circulation than ever before, and many people continue to see in him a suitable strong man for a post-Assad regime. This would be bad news for democracy, but it would reinforce the view that Syria is now the frontline for a Sunni-Shiite divide. Post-Assad Syria is going to be unmistakeably Sunni in its outlook, and a drastic re-alignment of its foreign policy is going to redraw the map of the region yet again. ** *International Coverage* The coverage of Syria has changed noticeably since the Wednesday bombing that almost decapitated Assad's inner circle. The talk now is about what comes after Assad. Most noticably, Assad's allies have also been shaken. The latest speech by Hassan Nasrallah showed a man desperately trying to shore up support for his ally, praising men such as Assef Shawkat as honourable men who had supported the Palestinian cause. Angrily, Nasrallah denounced their assassinations, and reinforced his previous position that Syria was being targeted for its foreign policy. *The Humanitarian Situation* People continue to stream out of Damascus and the outlying areas. In spite of that, there are far more people who have decided to stay. They do so out of economic necessities, fear of the unknown, and a general hope that things will get better soon. In some parts of the city life continues to carry on relatively normally, but the gunfire and the sounds of explosions are a constant feature. In spite of that it seems that this is the calm before the storm, and the real worry is how these hundreds of thousands of people will fare should the fighting in the city take on a more violent turn. Iraq, the day before yesterday, announced that it will be closing its borders to Syrian refugees. This is in stark contrast to Syria allowing in over two and a half million Iraqi refugees after the 2003 invasion. This is indicative of the government that now controls the country. Al Maliki was given refuge in Syria by the Assad regime, and it is not so much Baathism that he detested so much as it is the Sunnism of the Saddamite dictatorship. Today it is clear that his support cuts across ideology, and in line with the Iranian and Hezbullah policy towards the revolution, he seems quite happy to assist Assad's regime with such little gestures. I would be wary of all statements emerging from Iraq about Syria. Interestingly enough, the Security Council quickly rushed through a resolution, after months of deadlock, to extend the UN monitors mission by thirty days. This was supported by Russia unconditionally. The key question is, why? The only explanation is that there is a big fear that events on the ground will speed ahead of the international community's intention. There is probably a real worry that Assad will fall before a suitable replacement can be found, and this only furthers my belief that neither East nor West would like to see him go, at least not before they are ready. *Chemical Weapons* A lot of stink has arisen about this recently, and this will only increase. Israel is now making direct comments about the events in Syria, and there have been rumours that Israel will intervene to stop chemical weapons from reaching the hands of undesirable groups, ie. Hezbullah. I don't know what to make of that. If the Israelis want to do something then they usually do, and let the world figure it out later. If such a scenario was true then we wouldn't have heard a peep out of them. As for Assad using chemical weapons against Syrians, anything is possible. On one level, common sense tells me that he might as well put his neck in a noose and take a drop should he go down this route. Russia and China would be helpless if the international community hits the roof on this, and there have been sounds that such an option is completely unacceptable. On the other level, Assad has already killed over twenty thousand Syrians by claiming that a mysterious other side is doing it and lying through his teeth. Might he not do the same with a chemical attack behind similar lies and dissimulation? I just cannot discount this. *Grass roots* Whatever happens from here, one thing is utterly certain. There is a growing network of grass roots activists that is emerging, and this is something that will not go away regardless of who is controlling Syria. There will be long term instability, but it will also be next to impossible to govern the information coming out of the country, or flowing through the country. Anybody who comes into power following Assad will have to answer to an angry, highly educated, and active population that are now speaking to each other more than in a generation. Across the world, Assad's regime might have networked its way through journalists, MP's and rich industrialists or business moguls, but Syria's regular people have also been doing their networking. The Syrian ex-pat community in the Gulf region are extremely old and pre-date the Baath party's domination of their homeland. Syrian ex-pat money, and connections, in the Gulf are a key factor in keeping the revolution alive, and their informal network of support for the Free Syrian Army, and for affected people, has proved vital. Throughout the world, Syrians who were once afraid of being seen or reported on have now turned the table on known informants and regime sympathisers. Whilst anti-government demonstrations have swelled and support for the revolution has grown, pro-Assad demonstrations have shrunk noticeably, and Assad supporters are no longer as visible as they once were. In some cases there has been violence according to my sources. Perhaps most tellingly, Assad sympathizers in Syria are also starting to escape the country. The regime is unable to protect them, and many have left the country after receiving death threats. It is possible that a substantial number of defections for previous regime stalwarts is more in the hope of saving their skins than risking their lives at the mercy of an angry and victorious Free Syrian Army. This is a bit like Germans preferring to surrender to the West than the Soviets during the Second World War. *Conclusion* Where is Syria going from here? More instability, more violence, but also a steady chipping away of the regime's strength. The opposition is going to continue its guerrilla war, and more and more defections will take place until only a hard core remains with Assad. With heavy weaponry he can continue to strike at his enemies from afar, but already vast swathes of the country are beyond his control. He cannot be every where all of the time, and can only be in the most important places some of the time. When he attacks the FSA melts away, and when he leaves an area the FSA return. The big focus now should be on how a post-Assad Syria will be managed. There is a danger period, once the regime falls, which could risk drowning the country in chaos. This must be avoided at all costs, and it is here that the difference with Iraq will be most telling. Iraq was invaded by an incompetent foreign power that cared little for how the country managed itself. In Syria it is a popular revolution that became an armed uprising. The Free Syrian Army is - in spite of my misgivings - made up of Syrian army deserters and volunteers. They will live here long after Assad has been removed from power, and it is in their interest to ensure that the country is secured and calm. Missing from all this analysis is the input of the Syrian oppositions and political figures. In this coming period, I fear that it is those with the guns who will determine the nature of the future political makeup. The FSA will have to prove its anti-dictatorial credentials by submitting itself to civilian rule, or at least provide the security necessary for a future national Syrian government to emerge. If it fails in that final task, then removing Assad would have been futile, and Syrians would have swapped one military dictatorship for another. This must not happen. --------------------- Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Fighting Reaches Aleppo Sunday, July 22, 2012 at 20:37 Scott Lucas in Abdul Kareem al-Ahmad, Abdul-Jabbar Mohammed Aqidi, Alex Thomson, Bashir al-Sabban, EA Middle East and Turkey, Free Syrian Army, Hasan Abbasoglu, Hussam Hussam, Maher al-Assad, Middle East and Iran, Rafik Hariri *Sounds of fighting in the Saif al Dawleh section of Aleppo, Syria's largest city, this morning* *http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xnSCAc5MffI* ** *See also Syria Snapshot: As Refugees Surge, Jordan Turns Some Away<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/7/22/syria-snapshot-as-refugees-surge-jordan-turns-some-away-marr.html> Syria Analysis: Why the Regime Could Lose Aleppo<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/7/22/syria-analysis-why-the-regime-could-lose-aleppo.html> Syria Audio Feature: "Assad May Be Slipping from Power" --- Scott Lucas with the BBC<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/7/21/syria-audio-feature-assad-may-be-slipping-from-power-scott-l.html> Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Story is Beyond Damascus<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/7/21/syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-the-story-is-beyond-damascus.html> * ------------------------------ 2020 GMT: *Syria*. Turkish police have fired tear gas<http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/47452-syrian-refugees-clash-with-police-in-turkey-border-camps>on stone-throwing Syrian refugees, protesting at the lack of food and water in camps. A Turkish official said demonstrations erupted at two of the 10 camps set up along the border sheltering more than 40,000 Syrians. "We have had no food for three days," said a young Syrian boy standing outside the container city of Kilis, which is home to some 15,000 people. 1936 GMT: *Iraq*. Bombs in several towns have killed at least 17 people<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/07/201272218926220478.html>and injured dozens, in one of the most violent days in the past two weeks. Two parked car bombs exploded near an entrance of a public market in Mahmodiya, a town 30 kilometres (19 miles) south of Baghdad, and another exploded close to the town's police station. Five people were killed and 28 wounded. In Madaeen, 30 kilometres southeast of the Iraqi capital, three IEDs exploded inside a crowded al-Tameem market just before the evening meal for Ramadan, killing six people and wounding 13 others. Car bombs planted near a public restraunt in Najaf, 160 kilometres (100 miles) south of Baghdad, killed five people and wounded 14, and a policeman was killed and 16 others were injured when a car bomb exploded in the Mosul district. 1922 GMT: *Syria*. The Local Coordination Committees claim that 42 people have been killed<https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1934373&l=4f39a485ae&id=217848338242310>by security forces today, including 11 in Damascus and its suburbs. 1908 GMT: *Syria*. Insurgents claim they have captured Hussam Hussam, who gave testimony to the United Nations enquiry into the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hussam, a Syrian intelligence agent, incriminated Syrian and Lebanese security officials<http://qifanabki.com/2011/01/31/haqiqa-leaks-hussam-hariri/>in the murder. Some have alleged that Assef Shawkat --- the Deputy Minister of Defense and brother-in-law of President Assad, killed on Wednesday by a bomb in Damascus --- was involved in the operation to assassinate Hariri. In the aftermath of the murder, there were mass protests in Lebanon and Syria withdrew armed forces who had occupied the country for almost 30 years. Claimed video of Hussam: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SalRCm1wbx8 1905 GMT: *Syria*. Earlier today (see 0835 GMT) we reported, from an AFP photographer, that 150 "Islamist foreign fighters" had arrived at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey after it had been taken by insurgents. Claimed footage of the fighters with an "Islamist" flag: 1900 GMT: *Syria*. A witness and activists have said. that the elite 4th Division, under the command of President Bashar al-Assad's Maher, drove insurgents out<http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/22/syria-crisis-barzeh-damascus-idINDEE86L0A420120722>of the northern Damascus district of Barzeh and summarily executed several young men,. "At least 20 Fourth Division tanks and hundreds of its members entered Barzeh this afternoon. I saw troops go into the home of 26-year-old Issa al-Arab. They left him dead with two bullets in his head. Seventeen-year-old Issa Wahbeh was pulled from a shelter and beaten and killed. Four other males in their 20s were killed this way," opposition activist Abu Kais said by phone. 1730 GMT: *Syria*. Back from a break to find the insurgency declaring its offensive to remove the regime --- Brig. Gen. Abdul Kareem al-Ahmad of the Free Syrian Army said at a meeting in Turkey<http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-rebels-fight-aleppo-begun-073705079.html?_esi=1>, "Right now, Assad's inner circle has been dismantled and Assad has lost his balance. This war is now being waged in the heart of Syria in Damascus." Earlier, Col. Abdul-Jabbar Mohammed Aqidi, the commander of the "Unity Brigade", said in a video posted on YouTube of the weekend attack in Syria's largest city: "We gave the orders for the march into Aleppo with the aim of liberating it" Aqidi called on government troops to defect and join the opposition, and said rebels will protect members of Assad's Alawite minority sect, "Our war is not with you but with the Assad family." Images of fighting today in Sakhour in Aleppo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lO_9SBgIJiU 1440 GMT: *Syria*. The Anatolia News Agency claims Turkey has sent military reinforcements<http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=287351>to the southeastern province of Mardin on the Syrian border. The agency said the military deployed ground-to-air missiles to barracks in the Nusaybin district. 1415 GMT: *Egypt*. An attack on striking workers at the Al-Samoly Company for Spinning and Weaving in Mahalla on Saturday has killed one person and injured four <http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/48384.aspx>. The strikers caught one of the attackers and handed him to police. Hundreds of striking workers had blocked the Mahalla-Mansoura road to demand the payment of late salaries, wage increases, and better incentives. Egypt had been gripped by a series of protests in the textile industry, with employees of its largest firms walking out last week. 1215 GMT: *Syria*. Video of Free Syrian Army members moving towards Aleppo last night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-pgx32Xrp4E 1123 GMT: *Syria*. State news agency SANA is saying nothing about fighting inside Aleppo, reporting instead that security forces fought "armed terrorist groups" <http://sana.sy/eng/337/2012/07/22/432730.htm> in Qebtan al-Jabal and Hayyan to the north and the town of Hreitan. 1110 GMT: *Syria*. A Turkish diplomat said a 25th Syrian general crossed the border overnight <http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/47438>. Seven generals have reportedly defected since Monday. 1100 GMT: *Syria*. The Kurdish site *Rudaw* summarises Saturday's clashes<http://www.rudaw.net/english/news/syria/4984.html>in the Syrian Kurdish city of Qamishli, with the regime facing the Kurdish Popular Protection Forces, a combination of the Kurdish National Council and the Democratic Union Party. Sami Derwish, a Kurdish activist and protest coordinator in Qamishli, said fighting started when security forces tried to disperse Kurdish protestors: * Actually, we didnt want such clashes to happen in Qamishli, he said. We hoped that we would be able to liberate Qamishli peacefully, like other liberated Kurdish areas. But when the fight is imposed on us, we will do everything to liberate our city from the forces of this tyrannical regime.* Syrian Kurdish fighters have taken control of other towns in the area this week. According to *Rudaw*, they sent the message to the Free Syrian Army saying that it is not welcome. Derwish said, "We have already clarified that we dont need the FSAs support at the moment because we want to liberate our areas on our own. The fighters said the regime was sending reinforcements to Qamishli while giving up towns such as Kobani, Efrin, and Amoudia. It had been reported that the Kurdish insurgents had also taken Derik, but the regime still appears to have control, with one protester slain on Saturday. 1053 GMT: *Egypt*. Protesters have occupied the Giza Governorate building over long-standing water shortages in the town of Saft el Laban. Members of the people's committee of the town vowed to remain in the building and its grounds until their town has water. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=txmMMhOXb54 1048 GMT: *Syria*. The Governor of Iraq's Nineveh Province has said that Syrian forces regained control of the Yarabiyah border crossing<http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=421514>today. Insurgents now control one of the three main border crossings between the two countries, with the other two in the hands of the Syrian army. The Governor said of Yarabiyah, "The gunmen who were at the border crossing left at night, and in the morning, a Syrian force came and took control of the border again." He added that "the border will be open only to receive Iraqis from the other side." 1038 GMT: *Syria*. A series of messages from Alex Thomson of Britain's Channel 4: alex thomson @*alextomo* <https://twitter.com/alextomo> At military hospital in Damascus, coming under heavy fire. Sustained firefight as rebels attack the building. #*Syria*<https://twitter.com/search/%23Syria> 22 Jul 12 <https://twitter.com/alextomo/statuses/226960967408427008> - ***Reply*<https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?in_reply_to=226960967408427008> - ***Retweet*<https://twitter.com/intent/retweet?tweet_id=226960967408427008> - ***Favorite*<https://twitter.com/intent/favorite?tweet_id=226960967408427008> alex thomson @*alextomo* <https://twitter.com/alextomo> At least 50 coffins of soldiers at military hospital. Funerals cancelled because hopsital under attack.#*syria* <https://twitter.com/search/%23syria> 22 Jul 12 <https://twitter.com/alextomo/statuses/226975440957493249> - ***Reply*<https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?in_reply_to=226975440957493249> - ***Retweet*<https://twitter.com/intent/retweet?tweet_id=226975440957493249> - ***Favorite*<https://twitter.com/intent/favorite?tweet_id=226975440957493249> alex thomson @*alextomo* <https://twitter.com/alextomo> Central Damascus: long queues for petrol today after fighting cut the roads from the refinery. #*syria* <https://twitter.com/search/%23syria> 22 Jul 12 <https://twitter.com/alextomo/statuses/226987895767044096> - ***Reply*<https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?in_reply_to=226987895767044096> - ***Retweet*<https://twitter.com/intent/retweet?tweet_id=226987895767044096> - ***Favorite*<https://twitter.com/intent/favorite?tweet_id=226987895767044096> 1003 GMT: *Syria*. The State news agency SANA is back on-line, featuring the claim of the Governor of Damascus Province, Bashir al-Sabban, has said that "normal life" will return to the Midan section<http://sana.sy/eng/21/2012/07/21/432662.htm>of Damascus within five days as "maintenance works will have been completed". Midan was the site of six days of fighting between regime forces and the Free Syrian Army before insurgents withdrew on Friday. 0959 GMT: *Syria*. The US Ambassador to Jordan has said Washington has given $100 million in aid to the Kingdom to help host tens of thousands of Syrian refugees and to cope with cut-offs because unstable gas supplies from Egypt. The latest aid is a supplement to the $660 million approved by Washington in December as military and economic aid to Jordan, which has received $2.4 billion from Washington in the past five years. Jordan is hosting more than 140,000 Syrians, and the kingdom is building more camps to house the refugees. *See also Syria Snapshot: As Refugees Surge, Jordan Turns Some Away<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/7/22/syria-snapshot-as-refugees-surge-jordan-turns-some-away-marr.html> 0950 GMT: Syria. Claimed video of the Free Syrian Army trying, unsuccessfully, to take the Police Academy in Aleppo earlier this week: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=txmMMhOXb54 Pro-regime footage celebrating the defeat of the attack: Free Syrian Army insurgents celebrate the capture of the Al-Salam checkpoint, near the town of Izaz, on the Turkish-Syrian border: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=z9YcoLFnxNo 0920 GMT: Syria. Witnesses say insurgents and regime forces have fought<http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/07/22/uk-syria-crisis-fighting-idUKBRE86L03H20120722>near the main intelligence base in the northern city of Aleppo today. "Sounds of explosions from different areas are shaking the whole city. A heavy exchange of gunfire has been going on near the State Security Headquarters in al-Mouhafaza (district) since the morning," a housewife. In and around Damascus, witnesses report helicopter gunships have bombarded the Mezze district, with insurgents withdrawing, the areas of Rukn al-Din and Qaboun, and the suburb of Barzeh. 0835 GMT: Syria. Questions over the insurgent takeover of Bab al-Hawa, on the Turkish border, escalated on Saturday with Turkish drivers accusing insurgents of burning and looting their trucks<http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/47416> . "We barely escaped when the rebel fighters took full control of the Bab al-Hawa border post in Syria," said Hasan Abbasoglu, who retrieved his vehicle from Syria after the looting. While the truck was not damaged, Abbasoglu said its cargo had been ransacked and he had to pay $700 in bribes to get the truck back. The governor of Hatay province in southern Turkey blamed "independent groups" for the looting. AFP claims that by Saturday evening, a group of about 150 "Islamist" foreign fighters --- who were not present when the post was taken on Friday --- were present. Some of the fighters said they belonged to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), while others claimed allegiance to the Shura Taliban. They said they had come from Algeria, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Russian republic of Chechnya. 0815 GMT: Syria. A protest in Kafarsita in Hama Province last night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mACMlYCX2Nk 0805 GMT: Syria. A few days ago, we noted the line<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/7/19/syria-analysis-the-narrow-intelligence-of-us-intelligence-se.html>being put out by US officials --- through journalists for the The New York Times and The Washington Post --- that they were "work[ing] on contingency plans Wednesday for a collapse of the Syrian government". More signals this morning in the Times: The Obama administration has for now abandoned efforts for a diplomatic settlement to the conflict in Syria, and instead it is increasing aid to the rebels<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/world/middleeast/us-to-focus-on-forcibly-toppling-syrian-government.html>and redoubling efforts to rally a coalition of like-minded countries to forcibly bring down the government of President Bashar al-Assad, American officials say.... Administration officials insist they will not provide arms to the rebel forces. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are already financing those efforts. But American officials said that the United States would provide more communications training and equipment to help improve the combat effectiveness of disparate opposition forces in their widening, sustained fight against Syrian Army troops. Its also possible the rebels would receive some intelligence support, the officials said. By enhancing the command-and-control of the rebel formations, largely by improving their ability to communicate with one another and their superiors and to coordinate combat operations, American officials say they are seeking to build on and fuel the momentum of the rebels recent battlefield successes. Youll notice in the last couple of months, the opposition has been strengthened, a senior Obama administration official said Friday. Now were ready to accelerate that. The official said that the hope was that support for the Syrian opposition from the United States, Arab governments and Turkey would tip the balance in the conflict.... Administration officials said the United States is also working with Syrian rebels to establish a transition process for the day that Mr. Assads government falls, including trying to set up a provisional government that would include representatives from opposing Sects Alawites, Sunnis and Christians. We need to make sure that what comes next has Alawite representation, one administration official said Saturday.... But as last weeks unexpected turn of events indicate, planning for the end of the Assad government, which administration officials insist will happen without saying precisely when, is virtually impossible. What is the end? Thats the dilemma, said one senior defense official. No one knows what the end is. So its all about mitigating the risks. 0755 GMT: Syria. CNN's Arwa Damon removes on a movement by residents of Yabroud, near Damascus, to forge a movement for change beyond ethnicity and religious denomination: 0710 GMT: Syria. After days of attention on fighting and the high-profile bombing in Damascus --- alongside the equally significant news of insurgent advances throughout the country --- another significant story emerged on Saturday. The Free Syrian Army is on the streets of Aleppo, Syria's largest city. There had been skirmishes this week in the Salaheddin neighbourhood, but it became clear yesterday --- even as regime troops and armour tried to clear the fighters there --- that this was not an isolated incident. The FSA claimed that its commanders were planning operations in other parts of Aleppo, a claim backed up by video and news of fighting in Sakhour. So far this is a story of clashes rather than an offensive by the insurgents --- of the 140 deaths <http://www.lccsyria.org/9504> reported by the Local Coordinating Committees on Saturday, only 18 were in Aleppo Province --- but the symbolism of the challenge to the regime reaching its biggest city and the seat of its economic power is significant. Can symbolism turn into a campaign, possibly one that will win the war against President Assad? James Miller offers an analysis<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/7/22/syria-analysis-why-the-regime-could-lose-aleppo.html>in a separate entry. Article originally appeared on EA WorldView (http://www.enduringamerica.com/). * ----------------- http://www.thenorthstar.info/?cat=18 On the Ground With the Syrian Opposition by admin on July 22, 2012 in analysis <http://www.thenorthstar.info/?cat=18>, debate<http://www.thenorthstar.info/?cat=47> *By Brian Slocums* I posted a link to this French-language documentary a week ago in the *Libya and Syria: When Anti-Imperialism Goes Wrong*<http://www.thenorthstar.info/?p=1097>comment thread, but it probably got lost in the flow of discussion there, so I am reposting it here along with a brief review of some of the contents of the film. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GHQhAxtKOTA The documentary was made by a two-person team from the French TV station Canal Plus who entered Syria from Turkey with the cooperation of Syrian oppositionists last December. They spent 10 days with a group of Syrian Free Army (FSA) fighters in a small village in the northwest of the country, near the key opposition center of Idlib. Apart from following this group, they managed to briefly enter Idlib, and also to be present at a major gathering of opposition forces (military and civilian) somewhere in a liberated zone in the Jebel Az-Zawiya mountains nearby. Like most good documentaries, this is most valuable in providing a sense of the human dimension of the conflict and those involved in it. But it also provides some factual details about the struggle that are relevant to the issues that we have been discussing here. Obviously the program provides only a microcosmic picture of what is going on in one small locality and over one short space of time. Remarks by the people encountered suggest that the events and views recorded were fairly typical of a large swathe of the Syrian opposition, but there will be places where things are very different (especially in the large cities). Those who cant follow the French commentary may not find it worthwhile to watch the whole film but I think that the final 10 minutes, which shows the large gathering in the mountains, is worth watching just for the visual images, which give a sense of the popular enthusiasm that the revolt has mobilized (at least in some places) and of the relationship between the fighters and the civilian population. *Key Points of the Film:* <http://www.thenorthstar.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/FSAid.jpg> FSA fighter holds up his Syrian military I.D. card. The FSA, at least in this part of the country, operates in small groups of fighters based in local villages. The group that the filmmakers were attached to were described as a mixture of Syrian army deserters and local peasants, but most appeared to be deserters who had joined the opposition because of the repressive actions they were being ordered to carry out. Their command structure is located across the border in Turkey, and their weaponry fairly basic: small arms and one or two machine guns. Their operations center around providing protection to civilian opposition forces in the villages, particularly for demonstrations, but they clearly undertake some offensive actions against the Syrian army. Their basic structures are the small groups, but they regroup into larger units as necessary.One fighter expressed the view that in the village where they were based, political opinions were divided, with 60% being anti-Assad and 40% pro-government, the divide largely on generational lines (the younger generation being more solidly pro-opposition). There is interesting footage of a demonstration in a small local village where such gatherings apparently take place every evening. (@15:52) One of the slogans of the demonstration offers some insight into the strong nationalist (and quite sophisticated) politics of the grassroots movement even in rural areas like this: *Your father sold the Golan, you suffocate our souls* (meaning Bashar al-Assads father Afez). The filmmakers entered the city of Idlib in agreement with the local opposition. Interestingly, the opposition leader who they deal with tells them that the FSA is only allowed to operate in the villages they are forbidden from entering Idlib itself, because the local opposition believes that their presence increases the risk of armed exchanges with Assads military. In their view *the most important thing is the continued mobilization of the mass movement*. This indicates that there are tactical differences within the opposition, but suggests that the deciding voice is that of the civilian movement *not* the armed wing. <http://www.thenorthstar.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/done1.jpg>Discussions with fighters about external assistance again show divergences: some plead for international support (but are unclear about what form it should take), but one FSA officer when asked about this simply says that Western government should at least expel Syrian ambassadors. Ive suggested that those interested might watch the last 10 minutes on the gathering in the mountain liberated zone so I wont say much about that, except to note that the civilian demonstration seems large for such a remote area, and that there is heavier weaponry on display here (but only rocket-propelled grenades). This may be a result of different units being present or of recent changes in supply sources or both. To clarify the background for these comments Ive done a bit of research into the Syrian opposition, and I must admit to being embarrassed at my own ignorance I was really not aware of the extent and depth of the popular grassroots organizsation, only a hint of which is provided by this film. I dont want to overburden this post, so Ill close it here, but might feed some of my further findings either into the discussion or in another post looking more at the civilian opposition<http://www.thenorthstar.info/?p=1122> . 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