Iran Snap Analysis: Tehran Recognises Syrian Opposition --- 4 Possible Explanations Thursday, August 9, 2012 at 7:07 Scott Lucas in Ahmet Davutoğlu, Ali Akbar Salehi, EA Iran, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran, Syria, Turkey
Something quite curious --- and possibly significant --- happened last night. The Iranian leadership, having pursued the crushing of dissent within the Islamic Republic, having given full backing to the Assad's regime campaign to stamp out resistance, suddenly recognised the legitimacy of Syrian opposition. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi opened an editorial, published for an international audience via *The Washington Post*: *When the Islamic Awakening — also known as the Arab Spring — began in December 2010, we all saw people rising up to claim their rights. We have witnessed the emergence of civic movements demanding freedom, democracy, dignity and self-determination.* *We in Tehran have watched these developments with delight. After all, a civic movement demanding the same things that many Arabs want today is what led to the emergence of our Islamic Republic in 1979. * The message to Iranians was similar, with media highlighting the statement of President Ahmadinejad, in a photo opportunity with a Pakistani envoy, that "respecting the freedom and rights of the Syrian people is the Islamic Republic's fundamental policy". I suspect that the Iranian regime will not acknowledge this is a shift, claiming it has always supported President Assad's efforts for "reform", including elections. That is true, but the priority up to now has been Assad in power first, then that reform. Now the signal appears to be that reform could include negotiation of the opposition's demand that Assad leave power. So, if that is true, what is the explanation? There are four possibilities, which are not mutually exclusive: 1. PLAYING FOR TIME Some EA staff see this as a manoeuvre to buy time, while the regime tries to deal with pressure over its nuclear programme and a stumbling strategy in the Middle East --- the new Egyptian leadership preferring to talk to Saudi Arabia rather than Tehran, Turkey working with Arab States rather than giving Iran a lead role, no visible alliance around the "Islamic Awakening" --- as well as the crisis in Syria. An EA correspondent goes farther, "Salehi has no say in politics --- it's the Sepah [Revolutionary Guards] and the Supreme Leader who rule. Wait for fierce reactions tomorrow." 2. PLAYING FOR STRENGTH The Islamic Republic's own line will be that it is exercising leadership in the region, countering the dangerous intervention of the US and European states. And, with the United Nations effort to negotiate a resolution unofficially deceased, there is space for that effort. However, Iran's presentation of this verges on political comedy. Salehi's repeated call, put forth in the *Washington Post* editorial, for a dialogue bringing together the Syrian regime and opposition groups is fair enough. Its execution has been another matter. At short notice, Tehran declared a meeting in Tehran of countries with "sensible positions on Syria". Salehi assured on Wednesday that 12 nations will show up for a most significant conference, but declined to name them. It is unlikely that this supposed high-profile gathering will amount to much. Instead, it exposes Iran's real motive, which was to grab the spotlight from next week's extraordinary meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, hosted by Saudi Arabia. The true measure of Iran's position is that President Ahmadinejad had to await an invitation from the Saudis to be at that table. Which brings us to.... 3. PLAYING FROM WEAKNESS Sending one high-ranking official on an urgent mission is diplomacy. Sending two looks like concern. Having one of them slapped in the face might induce panic. The trip of Saeed Jalili, the head of the National Security Council, to Lebanon and then to a face-to-face with Assad in Damascus on Tuesday appears to be a mission to assess the situation and to hold the line, even if the Syrian regime is crumbling. That effort, however, was overshadowed by the visit of Foreign Minister Salehi to Ankara and its far-from-successful outcome. Salehi and other Iranian officials wanted to portray the discussion with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as an acknowledgement of mutual interests and close relations. Tehran, however, had already fouled its diplomatic nest. Last Saturday's abduction of 48 Iranians near Damascus brought an important shift on the ground of negotiations. Whether or not the men are currently connected with the Revolutionary Guards or other branches of the Iranian military, Tehran now had to deal urgently with the situation and the perception that its forces have been in Syria. That, at the very least, undercut its whiter-than-thou position against "foreign intervention". And that event brought interventions by Iranian officials that complicated Salehi's mission. Far from pursuing diplomacy, officials from the head of Iran's armed forces to the Speaker of Parliament warned of consequences for Turkey, as well as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, if any of the 48 Iranians was harmed. Ankara was not going to let that slip by. So, while Salehi tried to pronounce Iran and Turkey agreeing on co-operation, the Turkish Foreign Ministry was letting media know who was boss: *1. We strongly denounce baseless accusations and extremely imprudent threats issued against our country by Iranian officials — above all, by Chief of Staff Hassan Firouzabad [who threatened Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia with consequences if any of the 48 Iranians abducted in Syria were harmed].* * ** * *2. Turkey has always acted in a principled manner, as it did in recent nuclear negotiations. The continuation of anti-Turkish remarks amounts, nevertheless, to recklessness.* * 3. Everyone inside and outside of Syria knows who is responsible for the human drama caused by the Syrian regime and the deaths of hundreds of innocent people every day. They will certainly be called to account for their acts when judged by history and conscience. * *4. Irresponsible statements must stop.* This was more than a demand that Tehran watch its mouth. Turkish officials effective said to Iran: we will continue to support the Syrian insurgency, with funds and arms as well as political backing. You don't like that? Then get Assad to step down. 4. CHAOS THEORY This week's developments also indicate Iranian weakness in diplomacy is compounded by weakness in Tehran. Put bluntly, the left hand and the right hand of the regime are not necessarily working together. This is far from a new feature: President Ahmadinejad's power play in 2010/11, with an attempt to seize power from the Foreign Ministry, led to division and uncertainty, and the interventions of the military and Revolutionary Guards have caused further difficulties. In theory, the Supreme Leader is supposed to ensure a unified line, but his office has either been unwilling or unable to keep all in order. The sudden recognition that Assad cannot be saved appears to have compounded the rush to statement at the expense of co-ordination. Article originally appeared on EA WorldView (http://www.enduringamerica.com/). The Latest from Iran (9 August): The Syrian Front Thursday, August 9, 2012 at 11:10 Scott Lucas in Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Ali Akbar Salehi, EA Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Levan Dzhagaryan, Middle East and Iran, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Syria <https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=388437591221556&set=a.156167311115253.37171.155492264516091&type=1&theater> *The 48 abducted Iranians in Syria* *See also Iran Snap Analysis: Tehran Recognises Syrian Opposition --- 4 Possible Explanations<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/8/9/iran-snap-analysis-tehran-recognises-syrian-opposition-4-pos.html> Iran Opinion: A Response to Foreign Minister Salehi's "Wisdom and Providence" on Syria<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/8/9/iran-opinion-a-response-to-foreign-minister-salehis-wisdom-a.html> The Latest from Iran (8 August): A Short Break for the Olympics<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/8/8/the-latest-from-iran-8-august-a-short-break-for-the-olympics.html> * ------------------------------ 1745 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Representatives of the 28 countries attending the Tehran conference have issued a statement<http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9104253537>"expressing support to the legitimate demands of the Syrian people to carry out reforms in order to build democracy and promote all-out political partnership of different parties and opposition groups to exercise their right to run their own country, in a peaceful manner and calm atmosphere and without any foreign intervention". The delegates, who included three Foreign Ministers and diplomats from eight Arab countries, expressed support for the six-point Annan Plan, even though it is now effectively dormant, and called for delivery of humanitarian aid. They also endorsed an Iranian call for a three-month cease-fire from the start of the religious occasion of Eid al-Fitr on 19 August. 1325 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has opened the Tehran conference<http://www.irna.ir/News/80269061/%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%DB%8C,-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AE-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A/>for nations with "responsible positions on Syria, "The Islamic Republic of Iran firmly believes that the Syrian crisis can only be resolved through serious and inclusive talks<http://www.irna.ir/News/80269061/%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%DB%8C,-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AE-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A/>between the government and opposition groups that enjoy popular support in Syria." Note the phrase, "Opposition groups *that enjoy popular support*." Is Salehi, in a shift in the Islamic Republic's approach, acknowledging significant public support for the protests and opposition"? Or is he trying to limit those who are acceptable for talks by implying that some "opposition groups" do not enjoy popular support? State media and Salehi claimed the foreign ministers of Iraq, Pakistan and Zimbabwe were present<http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Aug-09/184010-tehran-summit-on-syria-conflict-gets-underway-iran-state-tv.ashx#axzz233Jnb2Kd>, while lower-ranking diplomats, most of them ambassadors, represented 25 other countries: Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Benin, Belarus, China, Cuba, Ecuador, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Mauritania, Nicaragua, Oman, Russia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. The United Nations resident coordinator to Tehran, Consuelo Vidal-Bruce, read out a statement<http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/09/us-iran-syria-conference-idUSBRE8780MG20120809>from U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon: "Both the government and the opposition continued to rely on weapons...[which has] tragic consequences for the Syrian people". 1150 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Marcus George posts an overview of today's Tehran conference on Syria<http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/08/us-iran-syria-conference-idUSBRE8771M520120808>which parallels our analysis<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/8/9/iran-snap-analysis-tehran-recognises-syrian-opposition-4-pos.html>this morning --- a Western diplomat said the suddenly-declared gathering indicates the Islamic Republic is "running out of ideas", while EA makes this contribution: * Iran is trying to show strength and regional presence, but if they were going to make a big play why not do it at the Non-Aligned Movement summit (taking place in Tehran in late August)? They seem to be so jittery about Syria, they couldn't afford to wait.... They're in chaos in terms of the bureaucracy. There have been lots of statements but no-one's co-ordinating [them].* Seyed Mohammad Marandi puts the positive spin on the move, "Iran wants to co-ordinate efforts among countries that don't accept the Western and Saudi approach to Syria. It's a counter-force to the so-called Friends of Syria gathering." 1108 GMT: Economy Watch. The Ministry of Industry has said it will pay 10 trillion Rials ($816 million at official rate) to Iranian carmakers going through “financial problems"<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-09/iran-to-pay-816-million-to-support-local-carmakers-times-says.html> . Minister of Industry Mehdi Ghazanfari said Iran’s two biggest automakers, Iran Khodro Co. and SAIPA, are struggling to pay debts to domestic part makers. Car production decreased by 37.4% between March and July, compared to last year. Manufacturers also face sharply rising prices for imported parts amid Iran's currency difficulties. 1046 GMT: Clerical Watch. The opposition site *Kalemeh* has called on Muslims to pay "fetriyeh" --- alms for the religious occasion of Eid-e Fitr --- to independent clerics "who support the people"<http://www.kaleme.com/1391/05/18/klm-109072/> . 1011 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). More tension and confusion in Tehran --- see our separate analysis<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/8/9/iran-snap-analysis-tehran-recognises-syrian-opposition-4-pos.html>--- as Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Committee, has denied Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi's comment that some of the 48 Iranians abducted in Syria are retired member of the Revolutionary Guards or Army. Boroujerdi said the news must be wrong as Salehi "would never spread untrue matters". 1005 GMT: Sanctions Watch. South Africa's MTN Group is in talks with South African and US officials about moving money out of its Iran business<http://www.theindependent.co.zw/2012/08/08/mtn-in-talks-with-us-to-move-money-out-of-iran/> . MTN, which reported a 14% rise in first-half profits,said on Wednesday that a likely devaluation of the Iranian Rial could have a “severe impact” on second-half results. The mobile operator owns 49% of MTN Irancell. It is being sued by rival Turkcell for $4.2 billion in a U.S. court, over claims it used bribery and lobbied South Africa to support Tehran’s military in return for a 2005 cellular licence in Iran that was originally awarded to the Turkish firm. 0959 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). A Foreign Ministry official, Mojtaba Ferdowsipour, has said all 48 Iranians abducted in Syria are in good health <http://www.presstv.ir/detail/255280.html>. Insurgents said earlier this week that three of the men, seized on Sunday, had been killed amid the damage from a regime air attack near Damascus. Ferdowispour, head of the Middle East affairs department, said, “The contacts made to obtain information on the fate of the pilgrims show that they are all in good health and there is no indication that some of them have been martyred." 0954 GMT: Clerics in Space. The Khorasan Province seminary has launched "Islamic Jurisprudence in Space Studies <http://www.snn.ir/news-13910518130.aspx>". 0950 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Russia has supported today's "international conference" in Tehran on Syria, but it is a far from enthusiastic endorsement<http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/09/us-syria-crisis-iran-russia-idUSBRE8780A820120809> . The Foreign Ministry said Russia will be represented by its ambassador to Iran, Levan Dzhagaryan, "if the meeting in Tehran really takes place....Time for the necessary preparations is very short." The Foreign Ministry added, "Naturally, we intend to firmly pursue our line (calling for) an immediate end to bloodshed and the suffering of the civilian population, as well as for achieving a peaceful resolution in the interest of all Syrians through a broad political dialogue." 0705 GMT: It is a measure of how serious the Syrian situation has become for the regime that it has pushed aside other front-line issues such as economic problems, political quarrels, and tensions over the nuclear programme. As Tehran scrambles to recover its position, both immediately and in the event of the fall of President Assad, we post an analysis, "Tehran Recognises Syria Opposition<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/8/9/iran-snap-analysis-tehran-recognises-syrian-opposition-4-pos.html>--- 4 Possible Explanations". Meanwhile, Iranian media is focused on the difficulty of the 48 Iranians seized by insurgents near Damascus last Saturday. Press TV proclaims, "Turkish FM Pledges All-Out Efforts<http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/08/09/255265/turkey-vows-serious-bid-to-free-iranians/>to Help Free Iranian Abductees in Syria", ignoring Ankara's slap-down of Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, "Irresponsible statements must stop," and effective declaration that Turkey will continue support of the Syrian insurgency. The site also headlines the lesser-known situation of seven Iranian aid workers kidnapped in the Libyan city of Benghazi last week, with Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian criticising the efforts of Libyan officials as ‘insufficient’ and calling for further action by Tripoli to secure the freedom of the men. Article originally appeared on EA WorldView (http://www.enduringamerica.com/). [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Digest: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Help: <mailto:[email protected]?subject=laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
