[image: Logo Venezuela Analysis] Venezuelan Opposition Prepares for
Non-Recognition of Chavez Victory

Sep 4th 2012, by Francisco Dominguez - Huffington Post
[image: Primera Justicia (Justice First) party is opposition candidate
Henrique Capriles' party and has been his main supporter dur]

Primera Justicia (Justice First) party is opposition candidate Henrique
Capriles' party and has been his main supporter during his electoral
campaign.

Venezuelans go to the polls on 7 October to elect their president. The main
choice is between the incumbent Hugo Chavez and Henrique Capriles Radonski,
a right-wing state governor with strong ties to the country's elite.

Yet with more than a month to go, sections of Venezuela's right wing
opposition coalition seem to have made up their mind about the outcome.
With substantial poll leads for Hugo Chávez they appear to be preparing to
decry the official results as a fraud.

Ricardo Hausmann, a key Capriles economic adviser, recently said his
campaign will announce their own results to the world before the official
announcement is made by Venezuela's independent National Electoral Council
(CNE), the equivalent of Britain's Electoral Commission. Their approach
seems to be that unless the results go their way, the CNE's official
results will be rejected by the opposition.

As Eleazar Diza Rangel, editor of Venezuela's main national newspaper *Ultimas
Noticias* - broadly sympathetic to the anti-Chávez opposition - recently
explained the purpose of attempts "to claim fraud at the coming
presidential elections of 7 October [would be] in order not to recognise
the people's will".

Whatever views are held of the Chávez government, its democratic mandate is
without doubt. There is certainly no evidence from previous elections of
fraud.

This will be Venezuela's 15th election since Chavez became President in
1999. All have been declared free and fair including by international
bodies such as the EU and Organisation of American State. Just last month,
Jennifer McCoy, director at the Carter Center, described Venezuela's
electronic voting system as one of the most reliable in the world. At the
coming elections, the Union of South American Nations will amongst the 200
international observers.

Any doubt about the impartiality of the CNE in organising free elections is
surely swept aside by the fact that earlier this year Venezuela's main
right-wing opposition coalition, the MUD, organised for it to conduct the
right's Presidential primaries. The MUD Executive Secretary described the
CNE's role in this selection as "an excellent indication of the democratic
institutions in the
country<http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/111205/cne-presta-asistencia-tecnica-a-la-mud-para-proceso-comicial>".
It is not serious for the right-wing coalition to endorse the CNE as a
legitimate electoral authority in February and denounce it in October.

The truth is that any opposition attempt to cry fraud is really about
covering up its own political failings. Polls carried out by the major
companies indicate a clear win for Hugo Chávez, with leads of between
15-27% in each of the 8 major polls carried out in
July<http://www.vicuk.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=24&Itemid=58>.
August's polls give similar results.

Rejecting the results in the face of a Hugo Chavez victory would be totally
consistent with the Venezuelan right-wing's record of resorting to
undemocratic means. Most well known is the short-lived coup against the
democratically-elected Chavez government in 2002 which abolished democracy
altogether until it was overturned by popular demonstrations. Soon after in
2003, they unleashed a 64-day oil industry lock-out that saw GDP collapse
by a third with the declared aim of ousting President Chavez. They then
claimed fraud at the 2004 recall referendum to decide if Hugo Chávez would
continue as President, which he won 58% to 42%. The opposition promised to
provide the evidence but eight years on they have yet to produce it. And
faced with certain defeat, they decided to boycott the 2005 parliamentary
elections to distract from their unpopularity, a move opposed by the
Organisation of American States.

Since then opposition has sought to use the democratic process to remove
Hugo Chavez. It has not rejected the CNE results that saw its presidential
candidate Henry Caprioles Radonski elected as a state governor, Chávez's
constitutional changes defeated in a referendum or the right-wing win
dozens of governors, mayors and MPs.

But faced with Hugo Chávez being elected for another six years, they now
seem set to be resorting to old habits.

Any such manoeuvres to undermine the real outcome need to be widely
condemned. It is the right of the Venezuelan people to freely determine who
their next president is. Their will must be upheld and respected.
------------------------------
*Source URL (retrieved on 05/09/2012 - 7:59am):*
http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/7234


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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