An ugly compromise or a means to negotiate?The EU proposal to lift an arms embargo to Syrian rebels may just be a bluff [image: UK FM William Hague (L) speaks with Luxembourgs Jean Asselborn (C) and Austrias Michael Spindelegger (R).]
The European Unions member countries are free to choose on whether to arm Syrian rebels starting June 1st after the EUs Foreign Affairs Council decided to put an end to the arms embargo for Syria during a 14 hour debate in Brussels yesterday. The proposed embargo lift came after the United Kingdoms Foreign Minister, William Hague, pushed for a decision to arm the Syrian rebels who have been engaged in a two-year long battle with Bashar al-Assads government forces. "We have brought an end to the EU arms embargo on the opposition," Hague told the press <http://euobserver.com/foreign/120273> in Brussels after the meeting. "This decision gives us the flexibility in [the] future to respond to a worsening situation or the refusal of the Assad regime to negotiate," he added. When asked how to ensure Islamic extremists do not get weapons, Hague added: "We would only take the step of sending arms in concert with other nations in carefully controlled circumstances - and in compliance with international law." The decision, however, was described by many EU politicians as an ugly compromise as not all of the 27 member countries representatives agreed with Hague. Austria's Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger was the harshest opponent to the proposal. He said<http://tvnewsroom.consilium.europa.eu/event/foreign-affairs-council-may-2013/doorstep-at-spindelegger1/P12> that most ministers present at the council wanted to keep the arms ban in place and to review it in August after the Geneva convention on Syria came to a close. He also warned that if countries begin taking sides in civil wars, it would fundamentally alter the nature of EU foreign policy. The Syrian opposition factions did not celebrate Hagues proposal, as some members of the Syrian National Coalition doubt it would ever be put into practice. The decision is very good on a political level, but we are waiting for the tangible procedures to happen, Syrian opposition member Ghassan Yassin told NOW. All we get is promises. We dont see when and how the weapons will be transferred to the opposition, he pointed out. Koeurt Debeuf, the representative of the European Liberal Party (ALDE) in the Middle East (who visited Syria recently), told NOW that: they have chosen the lowest denominator: to renationalize the issue, which from the EU perspective is very sad, but its a good thing for the Syrian opposition. He added, People in Europe are confused and some still believe Assad's propaganda. But nobody goes in to see what is [happening] on the ground. A year ago there werent so many Islamists. Debeuf continued, You make [the moderate opposition] weak by doing nothing to help them, then you complain that they are weak? Analysts say that the EU is all about soft power in its foreign policy, and lifting the arms embargo was only meant to boost the US-EU position at the negotiations table in the upcoming Geneva convention on Syria, which is scheduled to take place at the end of June. The Council for Foreign Relations member and Italian foreign policy commentator, Gianni Riotta, told NOW that EUs diplomatic tools are not very convincing. It was not very clear even what the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels agreed on yesterday. EUs head of diplomacy, Catherine Ashton, said that the talks are not over. The Dutch and German representatives spoke about pushing for a compromise, he pointed out. I am sure that by next week Europe will finally reach a compromise on the wording and the documents, but definitely not on an action [plan], Riotta argued. In the minds of the policymakers, this measure was taken to put more pressure on the Syrian government at the negotiations table, Nadim Shehadi, Chatham Houses Associate Fellow for the Middle East and North Africa, told NOW. This was a default position. There is a long road from taking this position to actually arming the Syrian opposition factions. This only means that UK has an option and it also means that Hague is bluffing, and hes bluffing with his cards exposed, Shehadi explained. Russia already expressed its disappointment at the proposed embargo lift yet vowed to continue selling arms to Damascus. Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov criticized<http://rt.com/news/eu-arms-syria-embargo-russia-870/> the EU Foreign Affairs Council decision, arguing that it damages peace prospects in Syria. However, he simultaneously insisted that Russias sale of arms, more precisely the delivery of the advanced S-300 long-range air defense systems to the government in Damascus, helps the international effort to end the conflict. Shehadi added that in the battle of wills before the convention in Geneva, the EU-US negotiations team is at a disadvantage and Russia will have a stronger hand when talks begin. Last night in Brussels, they were, in fact, solving Europes problems. They were not discussing a solution for Syria. Politicians think short-term. The focus now is on Geneva, he stressed. *Yara Chehayed contributed translating.* *Ana Maria Luca is on Twitter @aml1609* Canada opposes arming Syria opposition Canada's top diplomat Tuesday warned of "more violence, more deaths and more destruction" in Syria that risks spilling over into neighboring countries if the EU arms Syrian rebels. "My strong view is that the only way to end the suffering of the Syrian people is a political solution," Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird told reporters. "Flooding the country and the region with more arms will lead to more violence, more deaths and more destruction, so certainly Canada has no intention of following suit," he said. "Our strong concern is the number of radical jihadist which have entered parts of the opposition and in our view, that's not getting better, it's getting worse." The EU agreed late Monday to lift its embargo on arming the Syrian opposition after much debate and a strong push by France and Britain. Syria Today: Europe Lifts Arms Embargo on Insurgents<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/28/syria-today-europe-lifts-arms-embargo-on-insurgents.html> inShare Tuesday, May 28, 2013 at 14:48 | James Miller<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/author/james-miller> in EA Live <http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-live>, EA Middle East and Turkey<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-middle-east-and-turkey> , Middle East and Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/middle-east-and-iran> ------------------------------ *Individual European Union states can now send arms to insurgents.* * The arrangement comes through default, with a 12-hour Monday meeting of EU foreign ministers failing to agree on the extension of an arms embargo on both the regime and insurgency. Britain and France have been pressing European states to allow the open shipment of weapons to the Syrian opposition. Austria, Sweden, Finland and the Czech Republic were among those opposing the supply, saying that relaxation of the arms embargo would only lead to more violence. "We have brought to an end the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition," British Foreign Secretary William Hague said. He added that Britain --- which has been involved in a covert, multilateral effort to send weapons to some insurgents --- had no immediate plans to send arms to Syria. Hague continued: "It was a difficult decision for some countries, but it was necessary and right to reinforce international efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Syria. It was important for Europe to send a clear signal to the Assad regime that it has to negotiate seriously, and that all options remain on the table if it refuses to do so." * ------------------------------ *Head of Free Syria Army Threatens Attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon* The Free Syrian Army's Chief of Staff, General Salim Idriss, has warned<http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/84792>, "If the attacks of Hezbollah against Syrian territory do not stop within 24 hours, we will take all measures to hunt Hezbollah, even in hell." Idriss continued with the threat to intervene in Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based, "I will no longer be bound by any commitments I made, if a decision to stop the attacks...is not taken and implemented," said Idriss. Idriss said, "We are being subjected to a genocide conducted by Hezbollah," and, without giving details of specific operations said he hoped "that everyone will excuse the Free [Syrian] Army" for retaliating. *Opposition Leadership Stalemated.* Hassan Hassan reports for *The National* that the Syrian National Coalition, the primary expatriate Syrian leadership group, is hopelessly stalemated due to an internal power struggle<http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/syrian-stalemate-fuelled-by-oppositions-bitter-infighting#page1> : * The principle sticking point involves voting. Existing members of the coalition insist that the inclusion of new members must be based on balloting by existing members only. But this would change little in a monopoly that was made possible by interference from regional countries to begin with, rather than based on consensus among Syrian opposition. The existing members were not chosen by the people to decide whether certain opposition figures should be members or not. The second issue is the "blocking third", or the veto power held by a third of the members. This idea was advanced by the coalition's secretary general, Mustafa Al Sabbagh, and was clearly meant to maintain the monopoly of the current core group within the coalition. * Hassan argues that this stalemate may cripple the group, and will only fuel the stalemate seen on Syria's battlefields. On the other hand, *The Atlantic's* Shadi Hamid argues that the political stalemate can only be solved by progress on the battlefield<http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/05/the-folly-of-waiting-for-a-more-perfect-syrian-opposition/276280/>, and that progress has not happened because the international community is waiting for a unified leadership that will likely never occur: * With military intervention effectively ruled out from the beginning, the United States has instead worked to build a more "unified" and "representative" political opposition, despite the fact that liberation movements, historically, are rarely unified or particularly representative. A more unified opposition would, of course, be better, but the persistent hopes for a more perfect opposition have become both a crutch and a distraction from what really matters -- fighting Assad's forces and shifting the military balance on the ground. Progress on the military front is a prerequisite for political progress, rather than the other way around. * Both writers hit on a central point - the opposition remains divided, and international efforts to unify it have not succeeded. In the meantime, power dynamics inside and outside of Syria have only led to more divisions as time has passed, and that situation will likely only get worse as yet more time passes. *Rebels Push into Daraa City* Rebel forces have suffered recent setbacks in the countryside of Daraa, where the Syrian regime has tried to reestablish control of the highways north of the provincial capital. However, despite these setbacks, rebels have pushed further into the heart of Daraa city. Videos and rebel reports suggest that insurgent forces have captured the main court, the Justice Palace (map<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004ddc8b0238fce55c94&msa=0&ll=32.622352,36.105666&spn=0.035711,0.028667&iwloc=0004ddc8b3cb1d38771c0>), and have bombarded Assad positions near the National Hospital (map<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004ddc8b0238fce55c94&msa=0&ll=32.622352,36.105666&spn=0.035711,0.028667&iwloc=0004ddc8b025f98aa01f9>). One video claims to show rebels inside the court<https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/339393282603900928>, and several others reportedly show rebel forces bombarding Assad positions<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBIFB0SZus0> near the hospital. These advances suggest that the rebels have successfully expanded their zone of control in the city. Many of the southern districts have been under rebel control for some time. What we are seeing is a kind of race. While Assad tries to retake Daraa province, his forces inside Daraa city are still largely surrounded, lack reinforcements, and may be facing supply issues. It's unclear how this calculus will play out in the next few weeks, as both sides try to firmly establish control of southern Syria. ** *War on Assad's Doorstep.* NPR's Steve Inskeep has snuck across Syria's border<http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/05/28/186812716/in-damascus-a-view-of-syrias-war-turned-inside-out> and has reached Damascus. There, he finds a city on the doorstep of war, with constant reminders that the capital is besieged. Just to the east, he finds the signs of destruction everywhere, as he seeks out those who cling to survival in the eastern suburbs. James Miller takes over today's live coverage. *British Foreign Secretary: We Can Supply Arms to Insurgents Before 1 August * British Foreign Secretary William Hague has indicated<http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01sm70t>, --- contrary to a statement from a French official --- that London does not have to wait for a further European Union discussion this summer before sending arms to insurgents: *I must correct one thing because I know there's been discussion of some sort of August deadline. That is not the case. There will be a discussion in the EU by August 1 but from now on....We have said, we have made our own commitments, that at this stage as we work for the Geneva conference we are not taking any decision to send any arms to anyone, but that is not related to a date of August 1; I don't want anyone to think that therefore there is any automatic decision after August 1 or that we are excluded from doing so beforehand.* The French Foreign Ministry also appears to be knocking back<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/may/28/eu-lifts-arms-embargo-on-syrian-rebels-live-updates#block-51a4b83de4b0e39288861866> the reported statement of the official --- asked if Paris could deliver weapons, spokesman Philippe Lalliot said, Yes", although he added, "Our objective first is to reach a political solution. *Russia Today: "Russia IS Supplying S-300 Missiles to Damascus"* In contrast to the ambiguous line from Interfax, Russia Today --- seen as close to President Vladimir Putin --- explicitly has the Foreign Ministry saying it is sending advanced air-defence missile systems to Syria<http://russian.rt.com/article/9709>: "Supplying S-300 to Damascus Constrain The Possibility of Involvement of External Forces In Syrian Conflict". According to RT, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the contract for the delivery of the S-300 systems was signed several years ago, and "Moscow does not intend to review the position". Ryabkov said that he does not know if the weapons are located in Syria or if their transportation is still being planned: "I can neither confirm nor deny the information about what stage these supplies are in. I can only say that we have not given up on them." *Confusion over "Russia Will Supply S-300 Missiles to Damascus"* The BBC reports <http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22688894>, citing Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, that Moscow will go ahead with deliveries of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. According to the BBC, Ryabkov said the missiles were a "stabilising factor" that could dissuade "some hotheads" from entering the conflict. However, according to the Russian news agency Interfax, Ryabkov did not refer <http://www.interfax.ru/news.asp?id=309183> to the S-300s, onl "weapons systems". Ryabkov said no one has the right to blame Russia for supplying weapons to the Syrian regime, as they are going to the "legitimate authorities" of that country: "This is not an abstract argument about who those authorities are, and why they are entitled to receive this or that weapons systems." Ryabkov said that Moscow considers the European Union decision to lift the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition as a mistake: "You cannot declare on the one hand a desire to stop the bloodshed and on the other carry on pumping weapons into Syria." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 13 May that Moscow had no new plans to sell the S-300 to Syria but left open the possibility of delivering the systems under an existing contract. Both American and Israeli officials have been priming media in recent weeks with criticism of the Russian supply. *Slowdown in Syrian Refugees to Jordan* Amid fighting along the Jordanian-Syrian border, the number of Syrians crossing into Jordan has dropped sharply<http://www.albawaba.com/news/syria-refugees-jordan-495024> . The United Nations' refugee agency UNHCR said about 200 Syrians crossed into Jordan early Monday, after a week-long slowdown in which as few as one refugee entered the country within a 24-hour period. The total number of new arrivals over the past nine days is 583 --- nearly one-third of the 1,650 refugees who returned to Syria during the same period and far below the average influx of 2500 persons per day. Relief officials attribute the drop to the regime's military offensive across southern Syria, cutting off most access routes to Jordan. Syrian forces continued their campaign on Monday, with heavy clashes and shelling in the border villages of Bosra Al Sham and Sheikh Al Maskeen and in the city of Daraa. Jordan has opened its border to more than 540,000 Syrians since the onset of the conflict in March 2011. The UN had estimated the total would surpass 1.2 million by the end of this year. *Lebanese Soldiers Killed Near Border* Gunmen killed three Lebanese soldiers<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201352852756144767.html> at a checkpoint in the eastern Bekaa Valley on Tuesday, before escaping across the border into Syria. The border areas around the town of Arsal are used by insurgents challenging the Assad regime, with smuggling of weapons and fighters into Syria. In February, four Lebanese soldiers and two fighters were killed in a gun battle near Arsal. *Car Bomb in Homs* State media claims that six people were killed<http://sana.sy/eng/21/2013/05/27/484449.htm> and 40 injured in a car bomb near a petrol station in the al-Waar neighborhood in Homs on Monday evening. *Casualties* The Local Coordination Committees claim that 89 people were killed on Monday, including 27 martyrs in Damascus and its suburbs, 27 in Homs Province, and 21 in Aleppo Province. The Violations Documentation Center <https://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en> reports that 61,765 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 116 from Monday. Of the deaths, 48,011 were civilians, a rise of 62 from yesterday. Egypts Jihadists call for fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon The leaders of Jihadist movements in Egypt called on the Sunnis in Lebanon and the Mujahedeen around the world to fight Hezbollah on Lebanese territory because of the latters military role in the battles in Syrias Al-Qusayr. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has admitted to participating in the war against the Mujahedeen in Syria, and for this reason he and his party must be fought on their land, Toufic al-Afny, an official in the Jihadist Salafism movement, told NOW on Sunday. The call aims to target Hezbollahs military wing and its fighters, not all Lebanese, he clarified. What is happening in Al-Qusayr is graver than an ethnical cleansing it is committing killing and genocide in the most brutal and bloodiest of methods, the Jihadist statement read. This statement, a copy of which NOW received, was issued by 20 of Egypts Jihadist Movement leaders and was signed by a number of extremists, including Mohammad al-Zawahiri, the brother of Al-Qaeda terrorist group leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. What is going on in Al-Qusayr aims to prepare for the segmentation of the region into small Alawite, Shiite, Jewish and Druze states that will besiege the Sunnis, the statement added. It is a legitimate obligation and an imposed duty on all Muslims to carry out Jihad in the name of God by carrying weapons and [fighting]. We call on the Sunnis in the countries governed by Shiites to target these countries and transfer the battle into their countries, the Jihadists added. Shiite Hezbollah is a close ally of the Damascus regime, and its fighters have been battling alongside the army in the Al-Qusayr area, a strategic rebel stronghold linking Damascus to the Mediterranean coast. A handful of Hezbollah fighters killed in Syria have been brought back for burial in Lebanon, with senior officials from the group occasionally paying condolences in person to the families of those killed. The group's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has acknowledged that members of his movement are fighting alongside Syrian troops against the rebels. 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