*Russia may not deliver S-300 Missiles this Year* * * *AFP* Russia may not deliver a hugely controversial consignment of S-300 air defense missile systems to the Syrian regime this year, two Russian newspapers reported Friday, rejecting claims the weapons had already arrived in the country.
The *Vedomosti* daily cited a Russian defense industry source as saying it was unclear if the weapons would be delivered to Syria this year while the * Kommersant *daily quoted its source as saying that delivery was only planned in the second quarter of 2014. President Bashar al-Assad appeared to imply in an interview with Al-Manar television broadcast Thursday that Russia had already delivered some of the promised ground-to-air S-300 missile systems. But both sources quoted by* Kommersant* and *Vedomosti *said that no delivery of the missiles had taken place yet. The contract was agreed in 2010 and according to *Vedomosti *is worth $1 billion. *Kommersant* added that after delivery in 2014, a minimum of another six months would be needed for the training of personnel and tests before the systems were fully operational. The source quoted by* Vedomosti* meanwhile said that while the Russian government is currently insisting in public that the contract will be fulfilled, this does not mean that the actual deliveries will ever take place. According to Interfax, the deliveries could yet be put on hold indefinitely. Its source said this has been the case with Russian Iskander missiles that Syria had wanted several years ago but Moscow had refused to deliver. The widely-admired missile systems are seen by analysts as having huge military importance for Assad in the conflict against rebels as the weapons could be used to ward off Western or Israeli air strikes against regime targets. A report in *Kommersant* had also emphasized the risk of any third party like Israel seeking to destroy the S-300s once they were inside Syria, given that Russian specialists would be present on the ground to ensure they functioned properly. "If just one single Russian citizen is hurt as a result, the political consequences are going to be very serious," an arms source told the paper. "No leadership with any common sense is going to take such a step," the source added. -------------------------------------- Syria Analysis: A 5-Point Guide to Assad Interview --- Is He Right To Declare Victory?<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/31/syria-analysis-a-5-point-guide-to-assad-interview-is-he-righ.html> inShare Friday, May 31, 2013 at 6:32 | Scott Lucas<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/author/scott-lucas> in EA Middle East and Turkey<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-middle-east-and-turkey> , Middle East and Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/middle-east-and-iran> *See also Syria Video & Transcript: President Assad's Interview with Al-Manar TV<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/30/syria-video-transcript-president-assads-interview-with-al-ma.html> * ------------------------------ In his half-hour interview with Al-Manar TV, the outlet of Lebanese organisation and Syrian ally Hezbollah, President Assad said little of substance. For example, there was no declaration --- despite earlier, misleading reports --- that Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems were now in Syria. There was no substantial information, despite a long passage on the battle for Qusayr near the Lebanese border, on the military situation. There was no sign of a political move to break the deadlock over a proposed international "peace" conference, reinforcing the view that the conference is unlikely to happen. Certainly there was nothing about Syria's economic situation or the almost 40% of the population who have been displaced internally or abroad. Instead, the significance of Assad's statements lay in the tone of victory, from the President's reply to Al-Manar's opening set-up question: "How have you managed to foil the plots of your opponents and enemies?" *The main reason for tipping the balance is the change in peoples opinion in areas that used to incubate armed groups, not necessarily due to lack of patriotism on their part, but because they were deceived. They were led to believe that there was a revolution against the failings of the state. This has changed; many individuals have left these terrorist groups and have returned to their normal lives.* But is Assad right to declare that victory? Or, rather, even if the political and military situations are far from resolved, can he put forth the impression that he is winning? *1. "WE ARE WINNING"....BUT WHAT?* For all his boasting, there is a weakness in Assad's rhetoric --- almost all of his "we are winning" rests not on the strengths of his regime and what it gives the Syrian people, but on the weaknesses of the opposition: *They ended up defeating themselves because they do not know Syria or understand in detail the situation. They started with the calls of revolution, but a real revolution requires tangible elements; you cannot create a revolution simply by paying money.* *When this approach failed, they shifted to using sectarian slogans in order to create a division within our society. Even though they were able to infiltrate certain pockets in Syrian society, pockets of ignorance and lack of awareness that exist in any society, they were not able to create this sectarian division....* *They also fell into their own trap by trying to promote the notion that this was a struggle to maintain power rather than a struggle for national sovereignty.* Fair enough, but --- thinking back to the start of the mass protests in March 2011 --- what can Assad offer his people with "victory"? A better way of life? An address of the political demands for recognition and reform? Stability and security? This was almost the sum total of the President's "positive" response: *There is no doubt that as events have unfolded Syrians have been able to better understand the situation and what is really at stake. This has helped the Armed Forces to better carry out their duties and achieve results.* The cold fact is that, even if Syrians do not support the opposition, there is little that Assad can offer many of them, especially in the near-future. So instead, he has to find a diversionary campaign. *2. THE FIGHT AGAINST ISRAEL...* Almost as soon as Assad denounced the "terrorists", he was putting forth the wider menace behind them: *Everything that is happening at the moment is aimed, first and foremost, at stifling the resistance [to Israel]. Israels support of the terrorists was for two purposes. The first is to stifle the resistance; the second is to strike the Syrian air defense systems. It is not interested in anything else.* Assad dangled the prospect of military action in the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War: *There is clear popular pressure to open the Golan front to resistance. This enthusiasm is also on the Arab level; we have received many Arab delegations wanting to know how young people might be enrolled to come and fight Israel. Of course, resistance is not easy. It is not merely a question of opening the front geographically. It is a political, ideological, and social issue, with the net result being military action.... * *I believe that a state that opposes the will of its people for resistance is reckless.* Of course, this is bluster: Assad will not be picking any fights in the Golan, and Israel is not going to be leading any "foreign" campaign against Damascus --- its airstrikes, quietly discussed with countries like the US, have been in support of the effort to "contain" and degrade Assad's military. Instead, the Syrian President is dangling "Israel" in an attempt to ramp public support, which cannot really be secure by any positive prospects for now, for the fight against the primary enemy of the insurgency --- that is why the fight in Qusayr, the town near the Lebanese support, has symbolic as well as military significance. Which brings us to.... *3. ...ALONGSIDE HEZBOLLAH* It is no coincidence that this was Assad's first appearance on Al-Manar, Hezbollah's broadcaster to the region as well as the Lebanese people. This was the political complement to the recent recognition by Damascus of Hezbollah's role in the military conflict. Assad, with his own denunciations of "foreign intervention", was still careful to limit that recognition to Hezbollah's involvement in the battle for Qusayr: *Logically speaking, if Hezbollah or the resistance wanted to defend Syria by sending fighters, how many could they send --- a few hundred, a thousand or two? We are talking about a battle in which hundreds of thousands of Syrian troops are involved against tens of thousands of terrorists....* *Why havent we seen Hezbollah fighting in Damascus and Aleppo? The more significant battles are in Damascus and in Aleppo, not in Al-Qseir. Al-Qseir is a small town in Homs, why havent we seen Hezbollah in the city of Homs?* That statement is, to be blunt, a lie. There is ample evidence that Hezbollah fighters have been in the cities of Homs and Aleppo, and possibly southern Damascus, and indeed have been dying there. But Assad's message is a dual, linked one: Syrian forces will secure Syria, and Hezbollah's place will be alongside Damascus in a wider "just" effort in the region --- against Israel and the "foreign" menace: *[This is] a global war waged against Syria and the resistance. We have absolute confidence in our victory, and I assure them that Syria will always remain, even more so than before, supportive of the resistance and resistance fighters everywhere in the Arab world.* *4. "NOT LOSING" IS NOT THE SAME AS "WINNING"* All of this is a smoke screen for the realities of "victory". Many in the media, following the pendulum of sweeping declarations, have been saying that --- far from the narrative of Assad's fall from power --- the regime is now asserting its supremacy. The cold, stark reality, however, is that after two weeks, the Syrian military and Hezbollah are still trying to take a single town, Qusayr, near Lebanon. The eventual takeover of the town is not to be minimised, but it is not the same as moving across provinces and pushing back most of the insurgency's gains since last year. Large swathes of the north and east of the country will remain in the hands of the opposition, even if that opposition is more a collection of individual, often divergent groups rather than a single entity. And even Qusayr needs to be put in context --- its strategic significance is as a protector for Homs, 18 miles away. Its capture by the regime will thus bolster "not losing" Syria's main cities rather than "winning" across the country. *5. SO IT'S ASSAD V. "INTERVENTION"* Assad is shrewd enough to recognise this. So his "victory" declaration was tied not as much to military developments as his political calculations. The danger for the Syrian regime is that the US, European states, and Turkey will finally ramp up their open military support of the insurgency, complementing the effort of Arab States such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia. All the chatter about an international "peace" conference is merely the prelude to this decision. Officials within the Obama Administration favouring a stepped-up effort said as much this week: if Assad does not agree to step aside for a transitional government at the conference, then the US would consider --- and be bolstered in its consideration of --- a no-fly zone. And that message complemented the public signal from the European Union, as it lifted the embargo on arms to the insurgents --- Britain and France are now able to openly supply the fight against Assad. Such an intervention is likely to tip the military balance against the Assad regime. But it faces a political question: is the aim merely to pressure and contain the President or to topple him? And that question in turn leads to others: is there an effective political group, given the tensions and fragementing within the opposition, that can replace Assad? Will the "extremists", rather than the "moderates", win? Will the fall of the regime send destabilising ripples across the Middle East? Assad is betting that all these questions can be turned into doubts to block further intervention for the opposition. Last night's declarations were his chips to support that bet. ----------------------------------- Syria Today: Assad Declares Victory and a Fight Against Israel<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/31/syria-today-assad-declares-victory-and-a-fight-against-israe.html> inShare Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:01 | Scott Lucas<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/author/scott-lucas> in EA Live <http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-live>, EA Middle East and Turkey<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-middle-east-and-turkey> , Middle East and Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/middle-east-and-iran> *See also Syria Video & Transcript: President Assad's Interview with Al-Manar TV<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/30/syria-video-transcript-president-assads-interview-with-al-ma.html> * *See also Iran Today: IRGC Commander Says Syrian Government, Nation "Modeled Itself On Iran"<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/31/iran-today-presidential-election-the-nuclear-issue.html#syria> Thursday's Syria Today: Last Chance for Opposition "Unity" in Istanbul Talks<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/30/syria-today-last-chance-for-opposition-unity-in-istanbul-tal.html> * ------------------------------ *President Assad took centre stage last night with a half-hour interview broadcast by Al-Manar TV, the outlet of Lebanon's Hezbollah organisation.* * What mattered in Assad's presentation was not substance --- there was little of that --- but tone. Specifically, he linked an assertion of "victory" to a wider, diversionary cause: "resistance" against Israel. We explain why --- and what it means for the Syrian conflict --- in a separate analysis<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/31/syria-analysis-a-5-point-guide-to-assad-interview-is-he-righ.html>. We also have thevideo and transcript of the full interview<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/30/syria-video-transcript-president-assads-interview-with-al-ma.html> . * ------------------------------ *FSA Fighter To CNN: "We Can't Hold Out In Qusayr"* CNN Arabic reports comments from<http://arabic.cnn.com/2013/syria.2011/5/31/Syrian.rebble.qusair/> a Free Syrian Army fighter, named as Abu Hussein, who told the news outlet that the insurgents would not be able to hold out for long against Assad's forces and Hezbollah, particularly since they lack equipment, medical gear and drinking water. Abu Hussein was quoted as saying: "I do not think we can win this battle we cannot fight before a large number of armored vehicles and intensive missile strikes are hitting us from all sides, especially from Hezbollah positions." *Western Nationals Killed: Update* Details are emerging about<http://www.freep.com/article/20130530/NEWS06/305300146/Flint-woman-killed-in-Syria> Nicole Lynn Mansfield, an American woman killed by Syrian government forces in Idlib Province on Wednesday as reported by Syrian State media. Members of Mansfields family, who have been spoken to by the FBI, told reporters that she converted to Islam several years ago after marrying an unnamed Arab immigrant, whom she later divorced after he received a green card allowing permanent residence in the United States. The Syrian media report showed Mansfields driving license, with her address in Flint, Michigan, alongside rifles, clips of ammunition, grenades and the flag of al-Nusra. *"Western Nationals Killed by Syrian Forces"* Syrian State media is claiming that three Western nationals, including an American woman and a British man, were killed by regime forces in Idlib Province on Wednesday. *Casualties* The Local Coordination Committees claim 118 people were killed on Thursday, including 45 in Damascus and its suburbs, 23 in Aleppo Province, and 21 in Homs Province. The Violations Documentation Center <https://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/> reports that 62,113 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 115 from Thursday. Of the deaths, 48,165 were civilians, a rise of 46 from yesterday. ------------ Syria Audio Analysis: The Real Importance of the "Russian Missiles to Syria" Story<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/31/syria-audio-analysis-the-real-importance-of-the-russian-miss.html> inShare Friday, May 31, 2013 at 9:12 | Scott Lucas<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/author/scott-lucas> in EA Middle East and Turkey<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-middle-east-and-turkey> , Middle East and Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/middle-east-and-iran> On Monocle 24's The Daily on Thursday night, I discussed the latest rumours and claims over the Russian shipment of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria to get to the real significance of the story. *Listen from the 7:41 mark on The Daily's homepage<http://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-monocle-daily/> or in a pop-out window <http://monocle.dl.groovygecko.com/m24/11200414.mp3>* The take-away line? "The S-300 story is more important as a political game --- with the "West" trying to put Russia in a corner and Moscow standing firm --- than as a military development." 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