Sue Hartigan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes: >From "The Irish Times" http://www.irish-times.com/irish-times/paper/1998/0413/index.htm Sue > Deal opponents predict > MPs will desert Trimble > > ------------------------------------------- > By Frank Millar, London Editor > > The Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David > Trimble, may have lost the support of a > majority of his parliamentary party before > the end of the week, opponents of Friday's > Northern Ireland Agreement claimed last > night. > > Senior party sources said the likely > rejection of the deal by the Grand Orange > Lodge on Wednesday could have a major > influence on the outcome of next Saturday's > all-important meeting of the 800member > Ulster Unionist Council in Belfast. > > While Mr Trimble is confident of winning, > and his opponents would not forecast the > meeting's outcome, an MP said it was > "certainly conceivable" the party leadership > could lose the vote. > > Attention is beginning to focus on the > position of the South Belfast MP, the Rev > Martin Smyth, who is due to return to the > North from Australia tomorrow or Wednesday. > > Mr Smyth holds a pivotal position within the > 10-strong parliamentary party, five of whom > - Mr William Ross, Mr William Thompson, Mr > Roy Beggs, Mr Clifford Forsythe and Mr > Jeffrey Donaldson - are declared against the > agreement. > > The former party leader, Lord Molyneaux, is > also understood to be opposed to the > agreement. > > Party sources last night insisted he would > play no public part in opposing Mr Trimble > but one anti-agreement MP said: "He'll have > to." > > After conflicting reports over the weekend, > it was confirmed last night that Mr > Donaldson did vote against the agreement at > Saturday's meeting of the UUP executive > committee. > > While the leadership yesterday declared > itself happy with Mr Trimble's 55-23 win, > the margin was less comfortable than Mr > Trimble had expected. > > His opponents claimed it would have been > still closer had delegates, including those > committed to a meeting of the Orange Order's > central committee, not left before the vote. > > On the BBC recently, Mr Trimble acknowledged > a two-toone split within unionism generally > over the talks process, but assessed the > position within his own party at 80-20 per > cent in his favour. > > It also emerged last night that pro-Trimble > members forced Saturday's vote by a show of > hands, which Mr Trimble's opponents claimed > may have further distorted the picture, with > some delegates feeling obliged to back the > leader in public. > > The anti-agreement faction is determined > that Saturday's vote will be by secret card > ballot. > > It is thought unlikely that Mr Donaldson or > Mr Smyth would back any move to strip Mr > Trimble of the leadership of the > parliamentary party, thereby taking the > party back to the position which obtained > from 1974 to 1979 when Mr Molyneaux led at > Westminster while Mr Harry West remained the > leader of the party in the North. > > And the loss of a majority within the > parliamentary party itself would not > necessarily reflect the mood in the party as > a whole. Mr Trimble, after all, was elected > leader by the UUC without the support of a > single fellow MP. > > If Mr Smyth breaks with Mr Trimble, however, > that would mean nine pro-Union MPs > (including the Rev Ian Paisley, Mr Peter > Robinson and Mr Robert McCartney) lined-up > against the agreement, with just four - Mr > Trimble, Mr John Taylor, Mr Ken Maginnis and > Mr Cecil Walker - in favour. > > Anti-agreement MPs acknowledge at this stage > that the unionist split is unlikely to > prevent a Yes vote in the referendum. > > However, the real implications of it will > become apparent as constituency parties > begin selecting candidates for the Assembly > elections, and the battle is joined by the > two sides for dominance within it. > -- Two rules in life: 1. Don't tell people everything you know. 2. Subscribe/Unsubscribe, email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the body of the message enter: subscribe/unsubscribe law-issues
