Sue Hartigan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2028
> WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's not time to panic, but
> Earthlings need to keep an eye on a mile-wide asteroid
> that will zip very close to the Earth in 30 years and
> could even smash into the planet, causing widespread
> destruction, astronomers say.
>
> Tentative calculations are that the asteroid, called
> 1997 XF11, will pass within about 26,000 miles of the
> Earth's center on or about 1:30 p.m. EST on Oct. 26,
> 2028, and experts warn that there is a chance it could
> actually impact. Such a hit would release energy equal
> to thousands of atomic bombs.
>
> ``It will come extremely close,'' said Brian Marsden of
> the International Astronomical Union, which issued an
> asteroid alert Wednesday. ``The chances of impact are
> very small, but not impossible. We've not had a case
> like this before.''
>
> Marsden said his calculations of the asteroid's path
> have a margin of error of about 180,000 miles, plus or
> minus, but he believes a pass within 30,000 miles of the
> Earth's center was the most likely, based on the current
> observations.
>
> The IAU has identified 108 asteroids that orbit close
> enough to Earth to be called ``potentially hazardous
> objects,'' said Marsden, but astronomers have never seen
> an object this big moving on a path that would carry it
> so close to the Earth.
>
> ``It is not the kind of situation where people should be
> worried as yet,'' said Marsden. ``If it was only a few
> months away, we should be deadly worried. But with 30
> years, astronomers will solve the problem.''
>
> That might mean a rocket carrying an atomic explosive
> could be sent to the asteroid and detonated on its rocky
> surface in an attempt to nudge it into an orbit that
> misses Earth.
>
> The asteroid was discovered in December, and repeated
> observations have steadily refined the projected orbital
> path of the speeding space rock. Marsden said his latest
> calculation was based on photos taken by the University
> of Texas observatory last week.
>
> News of the Earth-approaching asteroid likely will be
> welcome in Hollywood because it could stoke interest in
> two upcoming movies.
>
> Theaters are already showing previews of the May 8
> release ``Deep Impact,'' produced by Steven Speilberg,
> which deals with the scramble for shelter space when
> comets approach Earth. ``Armageddon,'' a meteor thriller
> with Bruce Willis, is due out July 1.
>
> Whatever hype results from the collision of science and
> fiction, astronomers are taking the asteroid seriously.
>
> An asteroid 6 miles to 10 miles across collided with the
> Earth about 65 million years ago and is thought to have
> caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, along with 75
> percent of all other species.
>
> ``This is the most dangerous one we've found so far,''
> Los Alamos National Laboratory specialist Jack G. Hills
> said of the approaching asteroid. ``It scares me. It
> really does. An object this big hitting the Earth has
> the potential of killing many, many people.''
>
> ``It has enormous destructive potential,'' agreed Steven
> Maran of the American Astronomical Society.
>
> Marsden said astronomers may be able to precisely define
> the risk posed by the asteroid by studying old astronomy
> photos in which it might appear. If that fails, he said
> the asteroid will pass within 6 million miles of Earth
> in 2002, close enough to be tracked by radar.
>
> With that data, he said, the path of the asteroid will
> be determined to within about 1,000 miles.
>
> Asteroids are routinely observed and plotted by
> astronomers around the world because of their potential
> for great destruction on Earth.
>
> Hills said an asteroid the size of 1997 XF11 colliding
> with the Earth at more than 17,000 mph would explode
> with an energy of about 320,000 megatons of dynamite.
> That equals almost 2 million Hiroshima-sized atomic
> bombs.
>
> Such an asteroid hitting the ocean, Hills said, would
> create a tidal wave hundreds of feet high, causing
> extreme flooding along thousands of miles of coast line.
>
> ``If one like this hit in the Atlantic Ocean, all of the
> coastal cities would be scoured by the tsunami,'' Hills
> said. ``Where cities stood, there would be only
> mudflats.''
>
> If such an asteroid hit land, he said, it would
> instantly dig a crater 20 miles across and so clog the
> sky with dust and vapor that the sun would be darkened
> for weeks or months.
>
> Marsden said it is almost certain the space rock will
> speed by inside the orbit of the moon, which is about
> 250,000 miles from Earth. Since Europe will be in
> darkness as the asteroid speeds by, Marsden said, ``it
> should be a splendid sight.''
>
> The asteroid is in an independent orbit of the sun and
> swings past the Earth's orbit about every two years. It
> is now passing toward the sun's horizon and will be out
> of view soon. Marsden said the asteroid will be only
> faintly seen in 2000, but on Halloween 2002 it should be
> easily viewed with ``quite modest telescopes.''
--
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