The horizon of predictability reappears frequently in these discussions. That it is arguable leads me to suggest that some authoritative source distribute through IERS a reputable estimate and its uncertainty. Statistics of past events (admittedly a small sample) appear to be 3.5 years with an uncertainty somewhere between six months and a year. This would at least allow a window within which one should prepare and exercise.
I am sure that I am repeating something that was discussed before I became a subscriber. Dave Finkleman Senior Scientist Center for Space Standards and Innovation Analytical Graphics, Inc. 7150 Campus Drive Colorado Springs, CO 80920 Phone: 719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780 Fax: 719-573-9079 Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com. _______________________________________________ LEAPSECS mailing list [email protected] http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/leapsecs
