The ITU link says there will be 2-3 minutes discrepancy by 2100. At the
current rate of 1 every 3 years, we would expect 80/3, or 26.667 seconds
discrepancy. I have found a reference which estimates the effect of the tidal
slow-down and predicts that the discrepancy will still be less than a minute:
http://www.gps.gov/cgsic/meetings/2014/matsakis.pdf. See the third backup
viewgraph and the first six of the presentation.
Steve Allen's web pages have values that are much larger.
Who is right?
From: Steve Allen <[email protected]>
To: Leap Second Discussion List <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2015 10:28 PM
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] This year's Y2K: 'Leap second' threatens to break the
Internet -Brooks
On Tue 2015-01-13T11:03:35 -0500, Brooks Harris hath writ:
> This year's Y2K: 'Leap second' threatens to break the Internet
> http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/13/technology/leap-second/index.html
In that article is a link to a recent version of the Draft CPM
document with the options that are being wordsmithed before
the final tweak gets presented to the WRC in November
http://acma.gov.au/Industry/Spectrum/Spectrum-planning/International-planning-ITU-and-other-international-planning-bodies/wrc-15-agenda-item-114
At the moment it still has options A, B, and C.
There is also a similarly recent writeup from the ITU-R itself at
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/Documents/ITU-R-FAQ-UTC.pdf
which gives a deeper story about the lack of vote in 2012
to ensure that all the technical options have been fully addressed
in further studies related to the issue. It was necessary because
the decision was not only of a technical nature but had some
regulatory and legal consequences.
--
Steve Allen <[email protected]> WGS-84 (GPS)
UCO/Lick Observatory--ISB Natural Sciences II, Room 165 Lat +36.99855
1156 High Street Voice: +1 831 459 3046 Lng -122.06015
Santa Cruz, CA 95064 http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/ Hgt +250 m
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