John Sauter wrote: >While it is impossible to know for certain when the next leap second >will occur, I predict it will be December 31, 2022.
I find that a surprising prediction. What is your basis for it? The extrapolating expression from the current Bulletin A <https://datacenter.iers.org/eop/-/somos/5Rgv/getTX/6/bulletina-xxx-001.txt>, which projects a linear evolution of UT2-TAI, suggests that UT1-TAI will approach -37.5 in early 2019 (actually passing it on 2019-02-03), and then pass that value twice more early in the second half of 2019. So I'd expect the next leap second to happen on 2018-12-31 or 2019-06-30. If there is no leap, this projection suggests that the UT1-UTC bound would be exceeded on 2020-01-19. Extending all the way out to your proposed leap date, which is a dubious exercise given the crudity of the model, yields UT1-TAI ~= -39.228 at 2023-01-01, implying that we'd need to have two leaps between now and then, with 2022-12-31 being an early candidate for the *third* leap from now. -zefram _______________________________________________ LEAPSECS mailing list [email protected] https://pairlist6.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/leapsecs
