So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points get us
promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) - Even better
Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday and Fulham
cannot both get 21 points
We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams with no
real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our nerve in front of
what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15 needed.
So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and Wigan
- not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable - Brentford have
nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just roll over,
especially at home and especially in front of a full house. This makes tomorrow
a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will most
likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their ground) but how
often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will most likely
fighting for their lives when we play them.
Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and pick
up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games (win one
and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need to get at
least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and knock us out of play
offs - I cannot see this happening
All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham away to
Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope Rotherham do have
that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us and a draw for Sheff
would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points above them with 6 games to
go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win for them and the gap is suddenly
only 3 points with 6 to go)
I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and buts'
and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do !
Dave
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