Since you ask - here is some academic background -
>Of wider interest for ABBA fans is the revised sequence of penalty
taking, ignoring discussion over the inaccuracy of Thibault Courtois'
effort yesterday and the wisdom of his position in the line-up to take
the pens.
LSE are claiming the credit for the research:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2017/08-August-2017/Goal-LSE-research-scores-impact
The academic papers can be found here:
“Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments: Evidence from a
Randomized Natural Experiment”
<http://www.palacios-huerta.com/docs/ApestePH-AER.pdf> in the journal
/American Economic Review/ , co-authored with Jose Apesteguia
Tournaments, fairness and the Prouhet-Thue-Morse Sequence
<http://www.palacios-huerta.com/docs/EI.pdf> in the journal /Economic
Inquiry/
/Beautiful Game Theory, // How Soccer Can Help Economics, chapter 5
<http://www.lse.ac.uk/News/News-Assets/PDFs/2017/Palacios-Huerta-BGT-Proofs-ch5.pdf>
/by Princeton University Press
The biggest surprise is that the proposal highlights that the total
number of penalties should ideally be taken in exponentials of 2 (see
note 3 of the Palacios-Huerta paper on the Prouhet-Thue-Morse Sequence)
ie 8 or 16, rather than the current arrangement of 10. It is surprising
that half of the recommendations have been adopted but not this key
point. I wonder whether IFAB have considered changing the number of
penalties in the format, rather than sticking to sudden death after 10.
The analysis is interesting and includes differentiating between saves
and misses; the importance of home advantage and the decision to take
the first penalty kick after winning the toss of a coin. (Why would you
not when 'the order of play is strongly significant'? That is the
fundamental reason for the change.)
The footnotes are particularly illuminating and the references include
research worth investigating further.
Among the conclusions from the Psychological Pressure paper is a
'significant and quantitatively important type of psychological effect
not previously documented'.
On 07/08/2017 19:06, [email protected] wrote:
AS most people are aware, especially after yesterdays Community Shield that
the penatly shoot outs format have changed, instead of it going team A, team B,
team A, team B etc it is now ABBA ABBA etc
Now I have watched both Leeds and England in a number of penatly shoots outs,
both live and on TV but I have never felt or heard people think that winning
the toss and going first gave a massive advantage - I don't recall cheers or
boos when we have found out we are going first or second.
Are there any statistics out there that show going first does give a big
advantage to that team ?
Or is it just Sean Harvey and his cronies meddling for the sake of it ?
Dave
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