I understand what you're saying there Stotty, but applying any degree of weighting to those outcomes reduces those chances quite dramatically.
I know it's very academic, but here is my thinking. Looking at some combinations Hull 0 pts - 2%, Leeds 2 or more 60% = 1% approx Hull 1 pt - 6%, Leeds 3 or more 55% = 3% approx Hull 2 pts - 4%, Leeds 4 or more 20% = 4% approx Hull 3 or 4 points - 74%, Leeds 6 points 5% = 4% approx OK That's about 12% - not quite as bad as I 1st thought. Add 0.5 percent for the chances of overtaking Barnsley or Leicester and it gives us a 12.5 or 1 in 8 chance of staying up. Better than I thought. Kev. > > > > Really I'd put Leeds chances of avoiding the drop at 5% > now. Anyone know > > what the exchanges/bookies are offering on Leeds staying up? > > There are 81 permutations of the 4 matches left involving > Leeds and Hull. > > Assuming its a straight fight between us and Hull and that > their goal diff > will be better than ours then... > > Out of the 81 perms we would stay up in 23 cases - so its > approx 28% chance. > _______________________________________________ the Leeds List is an unmoderated mailing list and the list administrators accept no liability for the personal views and opinions of contributors. Leedslist mailing list [email protected] http://list.zetnet.co.uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist it's a God awful small affair
