In Bush's nuclear plan Australia could play a key role. Should it? http://theage.com.au/news/2001/05/03/FFXCVQZY7MC.html Star Wars - the sequel By MARK FORBES Thursday 3 May 2001 As the 20-metre high rocket shudders into life, a massive, flaming backthrust from its boosters snakes up its sides and out of the concrete silo. For a moment it seems anchored, then it takes off with ever-increasing speed. Within minutes the flames burn out, leaving the missile to silently cruise, with its destructive nuclear warheads, towards its target. Dispatched from deep inside the bleak Tibetan plateau, Siberia's wastelands, or even the mountains of North Korea, that brief flash of flame triggers the infra-red sensors of a United States geo-stationary satellite perched 200 kilometres above the Indian Ocean. That satellite beams down a stream of digital data to a 10-metre antenna housed inside what appears to be a giant golf ball at Pine Gap in Central Australia. Pine Gap then bounces the warning to the US battle command centre in Colorado. From there, defensive radar systems and interceptors race to destroy the warheads in less than the 30 minutes they would take to reach and devastate US cities. This terrifying scenario is one President George W. Bush envisaged when he announced his nuclear missile defence system, America's second attempt to erect a protective shield against nuclear attack. And if it ever came to pass, Australia, at least under this Coalition government, would play a vital role. Despite the key warning role played by Pine Gap under the new missile defence plans, its Australian commander is unlikely to know a nuclear attack has begun until informed by the United States. Yesterday US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld talked up the importance of Australia's role in developing a new global anti-ballistic missile defence strategy. "It is in our interest as a country to work with our friends and allies around the world to see that we develop defences against these limited (missile) capabilities that are existing and will exist to a greater extent in the period ahead," Rumsfeld said, after meeting Defence Minister Peter Reith at the Pentagon. Although the relay station at Pine Gap is not integral to the missile defence plans announced by President Bush, it is undoubtedly important, says Dr Ron Huisken, who was director-general of alliance policy with the Defence Department until March and is now at the Australian National University's Strategic Defence Studies Centre. Huisken says the US could probably use mobile ground stations to cover for Pine Gap. Still, "early warning is considered to be critical. You've got 30 minutes or less to destroy incoming ballistic missiles". For the US, the real importance of Australian support is political, not military. With many allies uneasy about the plan, Australia has been its most outspoken advocate. In March Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, echoing the "guns don't kill people" mantra of shooters' advocates, said that "a missile defence system is not going to kill anyone, missiles will". The Federal Government will warmly welcome the high-level team announced by President Bush to "sell" the system when it arrives in Canberra next week. But the Federal Opposition will take a different stance. Foreign affairs spokesman Laurie Brereton says a Labor government would not be involved in National Missile Defence, including any role in testing or developing the new system. The move, one of the few clear foreign policy splits between the major parties, echoes former prime minister Bob Hawke's rejection of an Australian role in Ronald Reagan's Star Wars program. At the time, Opposition leader John Howard said the rebuff would destroy the US alliance - which, Labor is keen to point out, never happened. Support of America's new shield will harm Australia's strategic interests, which should not be subordinated to Washington, Brereton says. "National Missile Defence has the potential to fuel a new nuclear arms race in the Asia-Pacific region and seriously undermine global non-proliferation agreements," he says. "The shield will encourage Russia and China to expand their nuclear arsenals in response." Alan Dupont, of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, agrees endorsing the system is likely to further harm regional relations. "The more we support the US the more it will raise tensions with China, and we have enough of those already," says Dupont. "It will re-inforce the perception in China that Australia is returning to the bad old days of `all the way with LBJ'." Many other countries argue the US is exaggerating the likelihood of "rogue states" gaining nuclear missile capacity. They question the effectiveness of any missile shield. But a spokeswoman for Mr Downer says the system should lead to significant reductions in the global nuclear arsenal, not a new arms race. She says it is too early to speculate on the details of any Australian involvement and Bush has made it clear that the system is not aimed at Russia or China. In Washington, Reith says he understands and appreciates Chinese concerns, but adds: "The Australian Government has made it quite clear we understand the right of the US Government to proceed to a system which it thinks is necessary for the defence of its territories." In return for boosting the US alliance, and access to the system's data, which could provide some protection from a foreign missile attack, would Australia earn a place on China's list of targets? "In theory China could target Pine Gap," Dupont says. "But it's unlikely because they only have 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles that would be targeted against higher priorities." Russia has been far more directly critical of Australia's role. In February, its government said that the proposed system, and the US consequent abandonment of the anti-ballistic missile treaty, would have "perilous consequences for international security. In today's interdependent world, even the geographical remoteness of Australia will not save it from the adverse consequences of the undermining of strategic stability and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction". -- Leftlink - Australia's Broad Left Mailing List mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Archived at http://www.cat.org.au/lists/leftlink/ Sponsored by Melbourne's New International Bookshop Subscribe: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?Body=subscribe%20leftlink Unsubscribe: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?Body=unsubscribe%20leftlink
