The following article was published in "The Guardian", newspaper of the
Communist Party of Australia in its issue of Wednesday, December 11th, 2002.
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THE HORRIBLE COST OF WAR
As The Guardian takes a break until the New Year, friends of peace the
world over are continuing to rally in opposition to a likely war against
Iraq. They are justifiably concerned at the consequences of such a war
and the recklessness of the US Administration and its allies.
The extent of the foolhardiness of these plans is the subject of a
recently released report from Medact - the UK affiliate of International
Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW).
The group was the winner of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize and has
affiliated organisations in several countries including Australia where
Medact unites health professionals for education, research and advocacy
around the issues of violent conflict, environmental degradation and
poverty.
Entitled Collateral Damage - the Health and Environmental Costs of War
on Iraq, Medact builds on what is known about the Gulf War of 1990-1991
and its aftermath. It adds to this the effects of new military
technologies and the greater ambitions of the latest war plans that
include "regime change" and the occupation of Iraq.
There is a wealth of information in the report that simply is not up for
debate. This deals with the toll taken on Iraq by the war of 1990-1991
and its ongoing consequences.
Prior to the war, Iraq had gone from being an impoverished rural country
to "a reasonably prosperous, urbanised, middle-income range one with a
modern social infrastructure and good public services".
Infant mortality in Iraq, an important socio-economic indicator, stood
at 65 per 1000, which was better than the developing country average of
76. The figure is now back up to 103 - on a par with Haiti, Senegal,
Yemen and Uganda.
By 2000 Iraq occupied a lowly 126th position out of 174 in the UN Human
Development Index that measures the overall level of development of
societies.
While there were less than 400 deaths among US-led coalition forces, the
estimates of the Iraqi casualties are horrendous. There were between
100,000 and 120,000 deaths in the military.
Between 3500 and 15,000 Iraqi civilians lost their lives during the war
and a further 4000-6000 in the months February to April 1991.
The civil wars during and after the main conflict took another
20,000-35,000 and losses among the refugees from all this turmoil are
put at between 15,000 and 30,000.
Twelve years of sanctions on the country are responsible for the deaths
of between 344,000 and 525,000 children under five years of age.
Medact has also summarised the less easily quantifiable outcomes - the
psychological effects on the people and the environmental impact on the
region.
You would think that there is more than enough information in the report
to cause even the hardest heart to cry out "never again!" However, it
appears that the US is prepared to inflict even greater horrors in order
to advance its agenda.
The report draws on a long list of sources and numerous advisors in
presenting its scenarios for a future war on Iraq. Medact forecasts
casualties on all sides of between 48,000 and 261,000.
If the "Saddam's last stand" scenario plays out and his use of chemical
and biological weapons (CBW's) against Israel and Kuwait is repaid with
a nuclear attack on Baghdad, a toll of between 375,000 and 3,900,000 is
anticipated. Other indirect, longer-term health effects of the war could
claim another 200,000 lives.
The cost of the conflict to all sides, including relief to Iraq, its
occupation and reconstruction could cost more than US$150 - $200
billion. The US itself is prepared to spend at least US$50 billion on
the war and an additional US$5-$20 billion annually to occupy the country.
A sad footnote to all this is that US$100 billion would address all the
health needs of the world's poorest people for four years.
Medact has given the world's peace movement a resource - something for
us to read in case we ever think that we are too tired or too jaded to
take the anti-war message to the streets.
Read the report at www.medact.org
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