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MoreAt http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Libertarian/message/55509 -Terry Liberty Parker Owner/moderator, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Libertarian --- In [email protected], [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > > > > Israel and Iran â" and the Bush Administration > by Gabriel Kolko > > DIGG THIS > <_http://digg.http://digghttp://&url=url=<WBR>hturl=<WBR>htturl=<WBR>h url= > ko7.html&title=title=_ > (http://digg.com/submit? phase=2&url=http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/kolko7.html&title=Israel) and Iran â" and the Bush > Administration&<WBR>topic=polit<WBR>to> > > There has been a qualitative leap in military technology that makes all > inherited conventional wisdom, and war as an instrument of political > policy, utterly irrelevant, not just to the United States but also to > any other state that embarks upon it. Nations should have realized this > a century ago but they did not. But there have been decisive changes in > balances of power, and more accurate and destructive weapons â" and > soon nuclear bombs and the missiles to deliver them â" are becoming > more and more available to the poorer countries. Technology is moving > much more rapidly than the diplomatic and political resources or will to > control its inevitable consequences. > > The United States should have learned its lesson in Vietnam, and its > public is aware of it to a far greater extent than its politicians. The > war in Iraq has reaffirmed the decisive limits of technology when > fighting against enemies who are decentralized and determined. It has > been extraordinarily expensive but militarily ineffective, and America > is ineluctably losing its vast undertaking. Rivals are much more equal, > and wars more protracted and expensive for those who persist in fighting > them. America's ambitions for hegemony throughout the globe can now > be more and more successfully challenged. Nowhere is this truer than the > Middle East, where the U.S.' long-standing alliance with Israel, > which shares its fascination with military power, has produced colossal > political failures for both nations. > > The ultra-modern Israel Defense Force finally learned this in Lebanon > last July, when Hezbollah rockets destroyed or seriously damaged at > least 20 of its best tanks and they were fought to a draw â" > abandoning the field of battle and losing their precious myth of > invincibility. Growing demoralization well before the Lebanon war > plagued Israel, and the percentage of Jews with higher academic degrees > that migrated grew steadily after 2002. Israel exports brainpower to an > extent very high by world standards. The Lebanon war and talk â" both > from Israeli and Iranian leaders â" of "existential" threats to the > state's very existence only gravely aggravated this defeatism and > the desire to leave. At the end of January, 78 percent of the Israeli > public was "unhappy" with their leaders for a variety of reasons. > > Israeli politics has always been highly unstable by any standard but the > corruption and other scandals that are now plaguing it exceed any in its > history, paralleling its loss of confidence in its military power. > Alienation from the political class in Israel has never been greater and > Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his cronies hope that spreading fear of > the Iranian bomb will help them ride out a political storm that has seen > his poll-rating plummet to a record low. But fear works both ways, > frightening the people who can migrate most easily and keeping out > tourists and foreign investors. > > Moreover, the Israeli public's anxiety has not been lessened by > reports of the efficacy of anti-missile systems that Israel has > installed at great expense. The Iranians have mastered all of the > technical bases of missile technology, according to Israeli experts, and > although the quality and precision of its missiles may leave something > to be desired they can inflict immense damage. Israeli specialists also > argue that the missile defense shield that Israel possesses â" in > common with those of all other nations â" is not sufficient to > protect it. Syria has missiles also â" not so effective as the > Iranian but much closer and capable of inflicting much damage if used. > > Notwithstanding the apocalyptic proclamations on Iran's imminent > nuclear power by Olmert's major rival, Binyamin Netanyahu, or by the > prime minister himself and some of his cabinet on occasion, this > hysteria is politically motivated and intended to garner public support. > > Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, told the Israeli Knesset last December > that diplomatic efforts were "far from being over" â" and that an > Iranian nuclear bomb was at least two years or more off. Many Israeli > strategists, including Yuval Diskin, head of Shin Bet, now regard > Bush's war in Iraq as a highly destabilizing disaster for the entire > region and a major boon to Iran's power, and they regret having > endorsed it. A war with Iran would be far more dangerous. Worse yet, > efforts to demonize Iran have failed. Only 36 percent of the Jewish > population of Israel polled last month thought an Iranian nuclear attack > the "biggest threat" to Israel. > > Serious Israeli strategists overwhelmingly believe, to cite Reuven > Pedatzur in Ha'aretz last November, that "mutual assured deterrence, > can be forged, with high degree of success, between Israel and Iran." > Israeli strategic thinking is highly realistic. Early this February a > study released at a conference by the Institute for National Security > Studies at Tel Aviv University predicted that Iran would behave > rationally with nuclear weapons and "that the elimination of Israel is > not considered to be an essential national interest" for it. Iran "will > act logically, evaluating the price and risks involved." A preemptive > attack on Iran nuclear research sites would "be a strategic mistake," > Pedatzur warned the conference, and the use of tactical nuclear weapons > against them sheer folly. "Our best option is open nuclear deterrence." > > Israeli experts have come to the realization that American policy in the > Middle East is not merely an immense failure but also a decisive > inhibition to Israel reorienting its foreign policy to confront the > realities of the region that the Jews have chosen to live in. It has > ousted the Taliban from Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein from Iraq and > created an overwhelming Iranian presence. In Palestine its campaign for > democracy has brought Hamas to power. Troop escalation in Iraq is deemed > futile. "It's a total misreading of reality," one Israeli expert is > quoted when discussing America's role in the region. Israeli > interests were no longer being served. American policies have failed and > Israel has given a carte blanche to a strategy that leaves it more > isolated than ever. > > Peaceâ¦or War > > The only security Israel can have will be a result of its signing peace > accords with the Palestinians and the neighboring countries. It is no > more likely than the U. S. to defeat its enemies on the field of battle > and its arms have been neutralized. The war in Lebanon was only an > augury of the decisive limits of its military power. It is in this > context that secret Israeli talks with Syria have enormous significance. > They began in January 2004 in Turkey with the approval of Sharon, moving > on to Switzerland, where the Swiss Foreign Office played the role of > intermediary. By August 2005 they had reached a very advanced form and > covered territorial, water, border and political questions. Details > remained to be ironed out but they were a quantum leap in solving one of > the region's crucial problems. When the Baker-Hamilton Study Group > filed its recommendations last December, negotiations with Syria were > especially stressed â" a point Baker reiterated when he testified to > the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations last January 30th. Baker > undoubtedly knew about the secret talks and Syria's explicit > statements it wished to break with radical Islamic movements and was > ready to discuss its ties with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. > > These nominally secret talks were made public on January 8, 2007 when > Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak accused the United States in an > interview with an Israeli paper of obstructing peace between Israel and > Syria. > > Ha'aretz' Akiva Eldar then published a series of extremely > detailed accounts, including the draft accord, confirming that Syria > offered a far reaching and equitable peace treaty that would provide for > Israel's security and is comprehensive â" and divorce Syria from > Iran and even create a crucial distance between it and Hezbollah and > Hamas. The Bush Administration'Hamas. The Bush Administration'<WBR>s > was decisive. C. David Welch, Assistant Secretary of State for Near > Eastern Affairs, sat in at the final meeting, two former senior CIA > officials were present in all of these meetings and sent regular reports > to Vice President Dick Cheney's office. The press has been full of > details on how the American role was decisive, because it has war, not > peace, at the top of its agenda. > > Most of the Israeli Establishment favors it. On January 28 important > Israelis met publicly in Jaffa and called the Israeli response "an > irresponsible gamble with the State of Israel" since it made Cheney > arbiter of Israeli national interests. They included former IDF chief of > staff Amnon Lipkin Shahak, former Shin Bet chief Ya'akov Perry, > former directors of the Foreign Ministry David Kimche and Alon Liel (who > negotiated the deal and believes it is very serious), and the like. > Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Foreign Minister, has since supported their > position and argued that it is "too important" for Israel to endorse yet > "another failure in the U.S. strategy." > > But Olmert has explicitly said that the Bush Administration opposes a > negotiated peace with Syria. Therefore he is opposed to it also. > Olmert's contradiction is that he wants to remain closely allied to > the U.S., whatever its policies, yet he is now one of the most unpopular > prime ministers in Israel's history and in power only because of > Sharon's stroke. Israel is a crucial pillar of American policy in > the entire region but this policy is failing. An alliance with America > is Olmert's recipe for political defeat when the inevitable election > is called. That is his problem. > > <_http://www.amazon.http://wwhttp://www.ahttp://www.http://www.a_ > (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1588264394/lewrockwell/) > > Israel's power after 1947 was based on its military supremacy over > its weaker neighbors. It is in the process of losing it â" if it has > not already. Lesser problems, mainly demographic, will only be > aggravated if tension persists. It simply cannot survive allied with the > United States, because the Americans will either leave the region or > embark on a war that risks Israel's very existence. It is time for > it to become "normal" and make peace with its neighbors, and that will > require it to make major concessions. It can do that if it embarks upon > an independent foreign policy, and it can start immediately to do so > with Syria. > > February 12, 2007 > > Gabriel Kolko is the author, among other works, of Century of War: > Politics, Conflicts and Society Since 1914 > <_http://www.amazon.http://wwhttp://wwwhttp://wwhttp://www.http://www. a_ > (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/- /1565841921/lewrockwell/) > > , Another Century of War? > <_http://www.amazon.http://wwhttp://wwwhttp://wwhttp://www.http://www. a_ > (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/- /156584758X/lewrockwell/) > > , and Anatomy of a War: Vietnam, the United States and the Modern > Historical Experience > <_http://www.amazon.http://wwhttp://wwwhttp://wwhttp://www.http://www. a_ > (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/- /1565842189/lewrockwell/) > > . His latest book is The Age of War > <_http://www.amazon.http://wwhttp://www.ahttp://www.http://www.a_ > (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1588264394/lewrockwell/) > . > > Copyright © 2007 Gabriel Kolko > <_http://www.lewrockwhttp://www.lewrohttp://wwwhttp://ww_ > (http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/rockwell-arch.html) > > Find this article at: > _http://www.lewrockwhttp://www.lewhttp://www._ > (http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/kolko7.html) > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > _Messages in this topic _ > (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Global_Media_Lightning_Headlines/messag e/47422;_ylc=X3oDMTM3c3Q2aDZkBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzExMD > IzMjA4 > BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTczOTIwMwRtc2dJZAM0NzQyMgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawN2dHBjBHN0aW 1lAzExNzEzMDQ4MDcEdHBjSWQDNDc0MjI-) (1) _Reply (via web post) _ > (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Global_Media_Lightning_Headlines/post;_ ylc=X3oDMTJyaGE3N3JkBF9T > Azk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzExMDIzMjA4BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTczOTIwMwRtc2dJZAM0Nz QyMgRzZW > MDZnRyBHNsawNycGx5BHN0aW1lAzExNzEzMDQ4MDc-? act=reply&messageNum=47422) | > _Start a new _ > (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Global_Media_Lightning_Headlines/post;_ ylc=X3oDMTJmM2ozdWIwBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzExMDIzMjA4BGdycHNwSWQDMT cwNTc > zOTIwMwRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNudHBjBHN0aW1lAzExNzEzMDQ4MDc-) > > <BR><BR><BR>**************************************<BR> AOL now offers free > email to everyone. Find out more about what's free from AOL at > http://www.aol.com. > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >
