-----Original Message-----
>From: Gabe <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Sent: Nov 20, 2007 3:29 PM
>To: [email protected]
>Subject: Re: [Libertarian] Liberty Decides
>
>Is the goal to get electoral votes or popular vote? What strategies
>should best be used?
First question.
Depends on what you're out to accomplish. Here's my happiest scenario, for
what it's worth, and what I think will have to happen to make that happen.
YMMV.
What do you want to accomplish?
As I see it, the ultimate goal is to continually improve society by reducing
government until it is no longer possible to do so. That's not going to happen
as a direct consequence of this election (or any one election), so we should
focus on making it more likely to happen later.
What would have to happen before that?
Reducing government would have to be an objective (often attained) of at least
one of the dominant political parties. Let's be less ambitious (!) by having
only one such party.
What would have to happen before that?
Reducing the growth of government would have to be an objective (often
attained) of at least one of the dominant political parties.
What would have to happen before that?
One of the existing political parties would have to be replaced by a political
party that claimed to want less government and be successful often enough to
make those claims credible, or one of the existing political parties would have
to become such a party. Let's take a hint from the past and assume that it
will be the former: the Democrats won't change from the Party that Robs Peter
to Pay Paul, and the Republicans won't quit being the At Least We are Better
than Democrats Party. They are both beyond salvaging. It will have to be a
new party.
What would have to happen before that?
Another political party dedicated to reducing government will have to grow to
the point that it replaces one of them -- probably the Republicans, is my guess.
What would have to happen before that?
Its candidates would have to win about 1/3 of the elections where they ran
against a D and an R, and about 1/2 of the elections where they ran against
just a D or an R.
What would have to happen before that?
They would have to frequently be the "balance of power" (i.e. get more votes
than the difference between the Democrat's and Republican's candidates), so
voting for its candidates would be seen as a practical political move by
voters, rather than just an irrelevant protest vote.
What would have to happen before that?
The candidates would have to routinely stress small-government positions in
opposition to bi-partisan agreement and in agreement with much of the
electorate -- and people who hadn't voted much. Ending eminent domain abuse,
definitely. Medical marijuana for the terminally ill, probably. And so on.
What would have to happen before that?
Their party organizations would have to become good at getting votes and less
interested in inventing and refining the social institutions of "Libertopia".
What would have to happen before that?
Beats the hell out of me. If I knew how to teach Libertarians to campaign
effectively, I'd be campaigning successfully myself.
So to answer your first question: no. Don't focus on the electoral vote OR the
popular vote. Doing well -- by either measure -- in he presidential race isn't
on the "critical path" for this project. Not yet.
Second question. The strategy -- is outlined in broad terms in the answer to
the first question.
What we need to do is get better at tactics, in support of the earliest part of
carrying out the strategy. A brilliant strategy is useless if the soldiers
can't shoot -- or are pacificts. (Sorry for the military metaphor. I'd have
chosen something else, but strategy was the word in the question, and I took it
in the military sense.)
The anti-political Libertarian is about as useless as can be, in a political
party. At least in a war, a pacifist can be a medic. But someone opposed to
political success in a campaign? Sheesh. If you're not interested in doing
politics, by all means, go work for a libertarian think tank, or write really
good novels that express libertarian themes in an entertaining and
thought-provoking ways. Donate to the Advocates for Self-Government, or
single-issue groups that support the libertarian position on some issue. But
stay out of LP political activity.
If you are going ot do it, do it right. Focus your efforts where they will do
the most good.
Learn to campaign effectively. Get lots of votes, especially in close races.
A vote from someone who agrees with your 100% on everything (rather than with
some other, "unprincipled" Libertarian of a different stripe) counts no more
than a vote from somebody who is mad as hell and knows it's the fault of the
Democrats and Republicans, and wants to do something about it. If it's not too
much trouble. ("And what the hell -- I was going to vote, anyway. Why not
send those bastards a message?") You can get 10 or 20 or 100 votes with the
same amount of effort it takes to get someone who votes Libertarian to be
identical to you in ideology. They already vote correctly, which is what
political parties (and candidate) should concentrate on.
People who have no interest in reading (and re-reading) a certain 1200 page
novel -- or whatever some Libertarians consider to be more important that
winning elections -- still have one vote, same as a devout Randite or a devoted
Rothbardian or a (fill in the blank) such as myself. Accept them for what they
are, and move on to the next swayable voter.
Most people who vote for D and R candidates don't have a deep ideological
commitment or deep intellectual understanding of what the candidates' parties
stands for and hopes to accomplish (mostly because those things mostly don't
exist). There's no reason to insist they have a a deep ideological commitment
or deep intellectual understanding of what the Libertarian Party is about,
either. It's nice to have, but not essential, and foolish to demand, if you
want to see government shrink.
If the LP can't do that basic thing -- eventually win elections about half the
time, and before that, win the balance of power (i.e. beat the margin of
victory) in most elections it runs candidates in -- there's no point wasting
time and money on it. Start a new political party or support another political
party with better prospects for success at reducing government.
There are reasons to think the LP is as unsalvagable as the Democrats and the
Republicans: so very many Libertarians focus on things that will not make those
necessary things happen -- inventing Libertopian social institutions, or
hair-splitting about the "true" nature of the Federal Reserve or the Post
Office, etc. -- rather than accomplishing what must be done to attain the
ultimate goal.
And there are reasons to think it is salvagable: name recognition, ballot
status (attained or attainable), dedicated people.
Our actions during the current election season and future election seasons and
during the time between those elections will be a reason in one category -- or
the other. Time will tell which. -Eric
P.S. Two books make a number of points far better than I could (made and not
made, above). Both are by Robert Heinlein.
One is non-fiction and out of print: "Take Back Your Government". The
nuts-and-bolts have to be translated to allow for 6 decades of political and
social and technological change, but the translation is easy enough for just
about anyone sensible enough to do the work in its 21st century form. And some
of it isn't different at all.
The other book is "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". It's about a different
objective -- a successful rebellion by colonists to prevent famine -- but the
overall situation is the same: have an ultimate goal, consider your resources
and assets, work out a path for getting there from where you are using what you
have or can get, allow for contingencies, work your ass off, take necessary
risks, face facts.
And it has some practical rules of thumb at the tactical level, too, such as:
don't use what is available just because it's available. Example: There are
volunteers with "Gilligan's Syndrome", best illustrated by these words of
wisdom from the Skipper: "You want to help me? Don't help me!" We all can (I
hope) find a more tactful approach to the same end. (Otherwise, WE are the
Gilligan.)
Both -- especially TBYG -- have another effect, at least on me: they often
boost my morale and motivate me to do immensely difficult feats (like talking
to strangers about how they should vote). -ESH
