Assuming randomness, you have one chance out of ten that a vote total is a multiple of 10. To happen twice would be odds of 1 out of 10 x 10 or 1/100. To have that happen in the same election as a dead-even tie in one county would mean multiplying 1/100 by 1/whatever where "whatever" represents the odds that a dead-even tie could occur. That gets to be rather daunting odds. But you are still talking about 1/something where "something" is probably a number less than the total number of elections that have been held in the US. Like I said, SOMEBODY wins the lottery. You won the "electoral lottery." Woopee.
Lowell C. Savage It's the freedom, stupid! Gun control: tyrants' tool, fools' folly. > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of Frank Reichert > Sent: Friday, December 17, 2004 9:37 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Re: Freedom vs. Fair Elections > > Good evening again, Lowell! > > Lowell C. Savage wrote to Frank Reichert... > > > Imagine, over 2.7 MILLION (that's 2,7000,000) votes cast for governor in > WA > > and the top two vote-getters are separated by something less than 300 > votes. > > Must be something suspicious going on. I mean, what are the > > probabilities.... > > Well, perhaps there is a slight difference here, insofar as > Bonner County came up with an exact tie vote between my two > opponents, and I received only votes counts in 'blocks of 10' > from BOTH counties! I got 280 votes in Boundary County, and a > total of 810 votes comrpising both counties in the First > District. The odds of all of this happening the way it was > reported to have happened, in both counties, are tremendous. > > Close elections are not necessarily the issue here. It is rather > the odds of occurrences happening that defy the odds to the point > where you might imagine someone might want to take a look. Don't > know who that 'someone' might be, but I am not a candidate to > stick my nose into that sordid mess. > > > Uhm. It's numerically possible, if both candidates receive the same > number > > of votes. It might be statistically unlikely. However, when you think > > about the number of elections that have been held in this country, every > > once in a while you get something like this. Your election happened to > be > > the one. > > That's to put things into perspective mildly. Again, the odds > are so profoundly and tremendously inferer to something like this > ever happening at all, that rational minds might call such into > serious question. Again, my issue here isn't whether or not > there might have been such a 'close election'. That was expected > in any case. > > Look. I got even numbers reported from both counties in the > District. Doesn't that look odd in and of itself? Not only even > numbers Lowell, but numbers in blocks of 10! Now, let's see and > do the math for a moment. 280 votes exactly from Boundary County, > and a total of 810 votes combined from BOTH counties. I probably > would suggest that things might be okay should the votes had been > 287 votes in Boundary County, and a total of something like 779 > combined throughout the District! > > But the striking votes were the exact even tie vote in Bonner > County, which is also next to improbable between my two > opposition candidates. > > > Think of it this way. How often does a grocery bill work out to an even > > dollar amount? > > Twice in a row!!! Never happened to my knowledge yet anyway! > > > I.e. you finish checking out and the clerk says "That'll be > > Fourteen dollars, even?" (Can you tell I'm single? :-) What are the > chances? > > Well, approximately 1 in 100. Which means that approximately once every > > hundred trips to the grocery store, you should get a bill like that. > And > > when you do, it isn't because someone is sitting somewhere on a computer > > deciding that "It's time for Frank to get a bill that is an even dollar > > amount." > > Maybe you've missed the point I was trying to make here. Hope > not, but perhaps you have. BOTH the simultaneous tie in Bonner > County occurred at the same time that I received two simultaneous > dead even direct 10 votes in both counties, and all at the same > time! Now, factor all of this into your list of probabilities > and I believe you might conclude that all of this goes far, and > far beyond any semblance of probabilities. Once you leave the > scene of possible probabilities, now you have to deal in the > possibilities of such occuring in the same space in time. Now, > that's where calculating this stuff gets really, really rough! > > I'm not a sore loser either. I already knew I was going to lose > when I knew I was in a three-way race between a Republican and a > Democrat. At the same time however, I believe the candidates > need, deserve or should expect an honest vote count. I know I > would have liked to have had an honest vote count. > > I do suspect, that the vote numbers were handled in a 'fast and > lose' fashion in BOTH counties, although I do not have the > fortitude to challenge these numbers, since I would certainly not > come out on top in any case. > > > Someone usually DOES win the lottery, right? (Or is that some other > scam > > where the state hires people to come in and pretend they won just to > keep > > interest up?) > > I don't ever play the lottery. > > I didn't expect that political elections might be viewed in such > a way either. But I'll concede I suppose that some of you might > view the election process in much the same way. I do not. > > Kindest regards, > Frank > > _______________________________________________ > Libnw mailing list > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > List info and subscriber options: > http://immosys.com/mailman/listinfo/libnw > Archives: http://immosys.com/mailman//pipermail/libnw _______________________________________________ Libnw mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] List info and subscriber options: http://immosys.com/mailman/listinfo/libnw Archives: http://immosys.com/mailman//pipermail/libnw
