On Mon, Nov 15, 2021 at 04:25:26PM +0100, Joost Jager wrote: > Reliability is a property of a route that can > be expressed as a probability. The probability that a route will be > successful.
I don't think users care about the abstract concept of reliability that's being returned by the pathfinding code here. What users care about is "how long will it take for my payment to make the point-of-sale terminal turn green so I can walk away with my warm beverage?" This is basically analogous to the fee optimization question that onchain wallets have been asking users for years: how many blocks do you want to wait for [the first] confirmation? The way that's presented to users in software like Bitcoin Core is, 2 blocks (~20 minutes), x fee 6 blocks (~60 minutes), y fee 36 blocks (~6 hours), z fee etc... The onchain estimates in Bitcoin Core are based[1] on a 95% threshold. If LN software speculatively chooses a series of attempts with a similar 95%, accounting for things like the probability of a stuck payment (made worse by longer CLTV timeouts on some paths), it could present users with the same sort of options: ~1 second, x fee ~3 seconds, y fee ~10 seconds, z fee This allows the software to use its reliability scoring efficiently in choosing what series of payment attempts to make and presents to the user the information they need to make a choice appropriate for their situation. As a bonus, it makes it easier for wallet software to move towards a world where there is no user-visible difference between onchain and offchain payments, e.g.: ~1 second, w fee ~15 seconds, x fee ~10 minutes, y fee ~60 minutes, z fee -Dave [1] https://gist.github.com/morcos/d3637f015bc4e607e1fd10d8351e9f41
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