I encourage everyone to watch the video Ben created (link copied below). It does a great job explaining the model.
The state model does account for septics and setbacks in its 20% open space deduction. Where the model is flawed is that it doesn’t just use 20% of the developable land (aka non wetlands), instead it subtracts 20% of the ENTIRE parcel from the developable land. This results in a severe underestimation of land that is developable. As an example, the state model has determined that 0 units can be built on properties like Ryan Estates. Yet there are 24 units there already, without septic/setback/etc issues. Rob is correct in his interpretation. I would add one point: public land also gives us zero units but, if included in the HCA proposals, can be redeveloped at a later point. Why do the town's proposals include 6 acres of superfluous public land, which give us no compliance credit but would be locked at a 10% affordability requirement? Please take a look at the video. Thank you Ben for all the time and effort spent on this. https://youtu.be/mqXo4TPw3MI?si=uJeutuF1eSa9VpRu > > > ---------- Forwarded message --------- > From: Margaret Olson <[email protected]> > Date: Tue, Nov 7, 2023 at 11:22 > Subject: Re: [LincolnTalk] Many more than 640 units may be developed. An > explanation > To: Rob Haslinger <[email protected]> > CC: Benjamin Shiller <[email protected]>, Lincoln Talk < > [email protected]> > > > The state's (implied) reasoning is that you can't actually build (zoned > density x parcel size) on land with wetlands. This is true - the logistics > of setbacks, height restrictions, and the need for septic and circulation > and parking. Their concern is that towns do not claim that land with > wetlands supports far more units than is actually the case. > > > > On Tue, Nov 7, 2023 at 11:03 AM Rob Haslinger <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> Hi Ben and others - >> >> Thanks for digging into the details of how the state compliance model >> works. I'm a Data Scientist by profession so the video seemed clear to me >> after a few viewings, but I'm still drinking my coffee and not firing on >> cylinders yet so I wanted to sanity check my understanding. >> >> As I understand you, the crux of the problem is that the state model for >> calculating compliant units can not be used to accurately estimate the >> number of units that could by right be built on parcels that include >> wetlands. This stems from two factors: >> >> 1) The state model underestimates buildable area because it removes 20% >> of the area for "free space" before subtracting off the wetlands, rather >> than after subtracting wetlands (as seems more reasonable). This lowers the >> number of compliant units we get per parcel, which means we need more >> parcels to comply. >> 2) The actual number of units a developer can legally build on a parcel >> has nothing to do with the number of compliant units, but instead is simply >> the total parcel area (including wetlands) multiplied by the zoned density >> which under the HCA must be 15 units per acre. >> >> The upshot then is that if we include parcels with wetlands, the number >> of units that can be built by right may be many more than the number of >> compliant units. The number of compliant units is therefore extremely >> misleading for estimating how many units might be built by right. >> >> Do I correctly understand your points or have I missed something? >> >> Thanks again for the effort you put into digging in and explaining the >> details to us all. >> >> Cheers >> >> Rob Haslinger >> South Great Road >> >> >> >> On Tue, Nov 7, 2023 at 9:27 AM Benjamin Shiller <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> I spent substantial efforts to understand the Housing Choice Act >>> Compliance model, and then create a video explaining the model and why it’s >>> flaws along with the parcels in option C may very well lead to 1326 housing >>> units in the rezoned area if parcels are combined, or over 1100 is parcels >>> are not combined. Either number is well more than the 640 units the >>> proposal is aiming for, and more than the 520 units we would seemingly have >>> to rezone for according to the law. Keep in mind, there are only about >>> 2080 housing units in Lincoln excluding Hanscom. Please consider watching >>> the video to learn about the flaws in the state’s model and why this may be >>> problematic. >>> >>> >>> >>> https://youtu.be/mqXo4TPw3MI?si=uJeutuF1eSa9VpRu >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >>> To post, send mail to [email protected]. >>> Browse the archives at >>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >>> Change your subscription settings at >>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >> >> >>> >>> -- >> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >> To post, send mail to [email protected]. >> Browse the archives at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >> Change your subscription settings at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >> >> -- > The LincolnTalk mailing list. > To post, send mail to [email protected]. > Browse the archives at https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/ > . > Change your subscription settings at > https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. > >
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