Hi all, A handful of friends who have been following the HCA debate less closely have asked for my expectations of what development will realistically look like under different scenarios (i.e. how to read the tables). I thought it might be helpful to share here in case others have similar questions. While there is subjectivity introduced in any projection, I've tried to keep to the facts where possible and use conservative assumptions. I welcome any questions or challenges to assumptions.
*Here are my assumptions (based on a 5-year horizon):* - Assume the Village Center is developed to zoning limits* - Where zoning overlays on existing condos, assume no new development - Where zoning overlays on existing apartments (Lincoln Woods), assume units built = 50% of the difference between existing units and capacity - Where zoning overlays on existing single family or commercial, assume 50% of property owners sell and condos are built to zoning limits* - If "E" wins tomorrow, assume the Mall will be developed to 100 units separately at town meeting (highly likely since all C/D supporters and many E supporters would be supportive) - *Note that zoning limits are different from modeled units and are a more realistic measure of what can be built *Summary of net new units built in medium term* *Option C: ~400 net new units built at Lincoln Station, increasing Lincoln's overall housing stock by ~20% * - 178 units built at the Village Center in 3 or 4 story buildings - 114 net new units built along Codman road - 87 net new units built along Lincoln Rd / Lewis St - 18 net new units built at Lincoln Woods *Option E: ~160 net new units built at Lincoln Station,* *increasing Lincoln's overall housing stock by ~8%* - 100 units built at the Village Center in 3 story buildings through Town Meeting - 0 units built along Codman road - 39 net new units built along Lincoln Rd / Lewis St - 18 net new units built at Lincoln Woods *Disclosure* I will be voting for Option E tomorrow, but have tried to be impartial in the above assessment (e.g., I personally think the 50% I used is a too-conservative assumption for what percent of Lewis St/Lincoln Rd/Codman Rd owners will sell within 5 years, but others might disagree so have left as is). Thank you, Greg Haines 41 Lincoln Rd
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