https://torrentfreak.com/megaupload-shutdown-hurt-smaller-films-helped-blockbusters-130823/
> Megaupload Shutdown Hurt Smaller Films, Helped Blockbusters > > While the major movie studios have all praised the demise of Megaupload, new > data suggests that the shutdown has impacted part of the industry > negatively. Extending previous work, European researchers show that the > closure of the service had both positive and negative effects on box office > revenues. Using weekly data from 10,272 movies in 50 countries spanning over > several years, the researchers found that the Megaupload shutdown actually > hurt smaller movies. > > It is no secret that the MPAA was one of the instigators of the Megaupload > investigation, which ultimately led to the shutdown of the company January > last year. > > According to the Hollywood studios the file-hosting site kept people away > from the box office, resulting in hundreds of millions in losses. However, > new data shows that this claim may not hold ground, at least not for all > movies. > > This week researchers from Munich School of Management and Copenhagen > Business School published new data that reveals how the effects of the > shutdown vary based on the size of the movie, defined by the number of cinema > screens it shows on. > > The researchers extended a previous paper and the new analysis is based on > 10,272 movies showing in 50 countries. Based on this data they found that > only very large movies benefited from the shutdown, while revenue for most > smaller and medium-sized movies decreased. > > “We find that box office revenues of a majority of movies did not increase. > While for a mid-range of movies the effect of the shutdown is even negative, > only large blockbusters could benefit from the absence of Megaupload,” the > researchers write. > > We contacted Christian Peukert, one of the authors, who confirms the > counter-intuitive finding. > > “The results of our analysis suggest that the shutdown of Megaupload did not > – as one might expect – generally increase box office revenues of movies,” > Peukert tells TorrentFreak. > > Looking at the overall picture the data suggests that average post-shutdown > revenues are roughly 12% lower. This is also visible in the figure below > which clearly shows a drop in revenue after January 2012. > > > Box office revenues before and after the shutdown > > https://www.torrentfreak.com/images/revenuesovertime.jpg > > What’s striking about the findings is that the shutdown effects are not the > same for all movies. According to the researchers the negative impact on > smaller movies can be explained by a drop in word-of-mouth promotion from > pirates, which affects smaller movies more. > > “Smaller movies usually have smaller marketing campaigns, making > word-of-mouth therefore a more important success driver. If some of this > word-of-mouth effect is then taken away with the shutdown of illegal content, > performance of smaller movies is likely to be hit harder,” the paper notes. > > The increase in blockbuster revenues, on the other hand, is the classic > replacement effect the MPAA had expected. That is, people pay for a box > office ticket instead of downloading the movie for free. Word-of-mouth > promotion may also occur for blockbusters, but the data shows that it’s > outweighed by the replacement effect > > “It could be that for most movies both effects balance, but for some movies > the promotional effect outweighs the replacement effect and vice versa. If > the promotional effect was especially important for smaller movies with lower > traditional marketing budgets, this would explain our findings,” Peukert > tells TorrentFreak. > > The researchers ruled out several alternative explanations and also looked > into the impact of Megaupload’s demise on the availability of pirated titles. > Using The Pirate Bay as a comparison, they find that the shutdown had no > significant effect on the availability of pirated movies on the Internet. > > “The one striking implication of this study is that it is difficult to reduce > negative effects of online piracy by shutting down the supply of illegal > downloads,” Peukert says. > > As any study of this kind, however, the statistical findings have to be used > with caution. > > “It is important to keep in mind that any statistical analysis can only > provide estimates. The precision of an estimation always depends on a number > of factors, such as method and type of data. We therefore prefer the most > conservative, qualitative interpretation of our findings,” Peukert notes. > > It will be interesting to see how Hollywood interprets the findings. When the > researchers published an early working paper last year based on a limited set > of movies, the MPAA said the results were “not clear or compelling” and that > it would reserve comment until the full paper is published. > > For Kim Dotcom and his team the research is not likely to change much. They > continue their legal battles in the United States and New Zealand, which may > take a few more years. -- Kim Holburn IT Network & Security Consultant T: +61 2 61402408 M: +61 404072753 mailto:[email protected] aim://kimholburn skype://kholburn - PGP Public Key on request _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
