This guy really sinks the slipper. http://www.zdnet.com/nbn-deadlines-missed-can-turnbull-make-the-industry-play-nice-7000023284/
> Malcolm Turnbull's communications ministry quietly missed its first major, > self-imposed deadline on Sunday, which marked 60 days of the Abbott > government and therefore the latest date on which the current NBN review > should have been delivered. > > That deadline was never going to be met – nor was Turnbull's earlier > commitment to November 11. Neither, for that matter, will Tony Abbott be able > to honour the promise he made, on the launch of the Coalition's official NBN > election policy, that he would deliver a revised NBN Corporate Plan by his > 100th day in office (around Christmastime); now, Turnbull says that is due in > mid-2014. > > Those aren't the only deadlines being missed: as Turnbull made clear in his > CommsDay Rebooting the NBN speech, neither will his promise – part of > official Coalition policy and repeated over and over again during an election > campaign built on discrediting the previous government's NBN project – to > give every Australian premise “a download data rate of between 25 and 100 > megabits per second by late 2016.” > > > Obviously, we now learn, the Coalition was just kidding with all those > straight-faced election promises. Its NBN review, apparently due in early > December, has blown out its timeframe by nearly 40 percent and the revision > of its NBN Corporate Plan is already six months behind schedule. > > This, from a government that made a hobby of bludgeoning Labor whenever it > managed to delay the NBN by weeks or months. > > Stepping aside from pedantry, however, one thing is clear: now that Turnbull > is in the captain's chair and becoming aware of the true challenge of > actually building the NBN – rather than just hobbling it with one acid-filled > speech after another – things are very, very different from what was promised > in the election. > > Now the growing consensus is that the FttN rollout won't begin until 2015 and > will probably run until 2021 – the date when Labor had initially planned to > have its fibre-to-the-premise (FttP) network in service. For those keeping > score, that's a six-year rollout – three times longer than Turnbull promised > before the election. > > I hate to say I told you so but... oh, wait, who am I kidding? I love to say > it. Scratch that. > > Consider, though: given that so much of that plan still remains up in the > air, even 2021 could be an optimistic half-guess. Any progress depends, for > example, on the Coalition government's renegotiations with Telstra – for > which Turnbull amusingly called for quick conclusion “in a spirit of > collaboration and partnership”. > > Because, you know, Telstra is just dying to gift-wrap its copper network for > Turnbull. Perhaps David Thodey will wrap up the network with a nice figgy > pudding and deliver it to Turnbull's doorstep for Christmas? > > I'm sorry, but being sued during major contract negotiations doesn't exactly > suggest that Telstra is feeling that spirit too. Indeed, there is still a > very large question mark around whether an economically deterministic > Coalition can offer enough money to get a disaffected industry to even > complete its obligations around the current rollout. The way things are > looking, anybody wanting to put a bit of extra cash in their pockets for > Christmas might consider starting an NBN-contractor dead pool. > > As we hunker down to wait for yet another broadband plan to come to fruition, > it's worth remembering that many of the obstacles Labor encountered came not > only from its own over-ambitious agenda, but from the uncertainty that > Turnbull himself sowed and reaped over three years in virulent opposition. > > Turnbull has begged “patience” from the industry as he seeks to sort out the > remnants of Labor's rollout, and he continues to blame the disarray on > Labor's own mistakes. This is hardly surprising. > > And yet, as we hunker down to wait for yet another broadband plan to come to > fruition, it's worth remembering that many of the obstacles Labor encountered > came not only from its own over-ambitious agenda, but from the uncertainty > that Turnbull himself sowed and reaped over three years in virulent > opposition. > > Had he supported Labor's FttP ambition but pushed instead for tighter > oversight of the processes by which it was being rolled out – instead of > simply arguing for a totally different policy – would the industry have > fallen in line faster, knowing that FttP was inevitable? > > It's not a question we can answer for sure, but it's certainly one to > consider as Turnbull swaddles himself in the blindly optimistic capitalism > that marked the Howard government's poorly-executed privatisation of Telstra. > > Even now, Turnbull speaks in misty-eyed terms about a private sector given > government subsidies “to support deployment in less economic, typically rural > and remote, areas for the project and business execution risk to be carried > by those best able to manage it.” > > This is a worry, because – as we have seen – for better or worse, the private > sector in Australia is simply not interested in managing that risk, or taking > it on at all. Construction firms were, we must remember, contracted to > deliver specific outcomes around the NBN based on their own estimations of > the cost of the work – and, by all accounts, struggled to deliver outcomes > that meet their own expectations. > > Whether or not those expectations were driven by unrealistic government > demands, as Turnbull will allege, or by fierce competition for what was > perceived as A-grade project work, as Stephen Conroy will likely contend, the > fact remains that Turnbull now faces a serious problem in mustering the > manpower to deliver on his own vision. > > Some have pointed to recent investments by the likes of TPG – which bought 4G > spectrum earlier this year, is investing in undersea capacity via the $350m > Hawaiki project and wants to build fibre to around 500,000 capital-city > apartments – as a sign that the private sector has been revitalised with > Coalition's election. > > And yet I seriously doubt TPG, or any other company building its own > infrastructure, is going to freely allow access to that infrastructure. > Turnbull's NBN Co could deliver such an outcome were it to buy the > infrastructure when it's built – but that's not really the plan, now, is it? > > Turnbull still has not outlined how he will deliver the open-access wholesale > network that everybody agrees is necessary – while getting the private sector > to build enough infrastructure that the government can shed the risk that he > believes it should never have taken on in the first place. > > Despite assimilating TransACT's fibre network and all his rhetoric about > capitalising on existing HFC networks, Turnbull still has not outlined how he > will deliver the open-access wholesale network that everybody agrees is > necessary – while getting the private sector to build enough infrastructure > that the government can shed the risk that he believes it should never have > taken on in the first place. > > But who will carry that risk? Modern business cases simply don't allow you to > fund infrastructure that will facilitate the creation of new competitors that > will eat your lunch. Foxtel hasn't allowed competitors onto its HFC network, > Optus didn't do it either. Optus has reined in its mobile virtual network > operator (MVNO) business in an attempt to stop price erosion in the crucial > mobile market. > > Everywhere you turn, Australia's private sector is showing exactly why > Turnbull's business idealism is completely misplaced – and why residents in > rural areas of Australia, who everyone agrees need broadband sooner than > anybody else, have been left holding the bag once again. > > Turnbull has appealed to the telecommunications sector for “commitment and > flexibility, patience and hard work” as the industry's new captain works to > turn the ocean liner that is Labor's NBN plan towards the Port of Broadband > Mediocrity. But as Turnbull's nascent ministry misses deadline after > deadline, and staggers from one broken promise to another, it's worth > wondering not only when but if this boat will ever reach shore. > > What do you think? Is Turnbull just doing the best he can given the > situation? Or is he reaping the effects of the dissent he sowed in > Opposition? Will the private sector be as nice to Turnbull as he wants to be > to it? And: is this thing ever going to be built? -- Kim Holburn IT Network & Security Consultant T: +61 2 61402408 M: +61 404072753 mailto:[email protected] aim://kimholburn skype://kholburn - PGP Public Key on request _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
