Bernard notes, > http://www.dilbert.com/2014-01-28
Speaking of Predator and Reaper drones .. <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/27/world/asia/afghanistan-exit-is-seen-as- peril-to-drone-mission.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20140127&_r=1> (snip) WASHINGTON The risk that President Obama may be forced to pull all American troops out of Afghanistan by the end of the year has set off concerns inside the American intelligence agencies that they could lose their air bases used for drone strikes against Pakistan .. If Mr. Obama ultimately withdrew all American troops from Afghanistan, the C.I.A.s drone bases in the country would have to be closed, according to administration officials, because they could no longer be protected. The official added that the administration was determined to find alternatives, if necessary. We will be forced to adapt, the official said, and while perhaps less than most efficient, the United States will find ways necessary to protect our interests. Mr. Obama has made no decisions on troop levels, said Caitlin M. Hayden, the spokeswoman for the National Security Council. We will be weighing inputs from our military commanders, as well as the intelligence community, our diplomats and development experts, as we make decisions about our-post 2014 presence in Afghanistan, she said. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, however, Mr. Obama is expected to say that by the end of this year the Afghan war will be over at least for Americans slightly more than 13 years after it began, making it the longest war in American history. Mr Obamas hope is to keep 8,000 to 12,000 troops most of them Americans, some from allies in Afghanistan after the NATO combat mission ends this year. In recent years Pakistan has accelerated its drive to build small tactical nuclear weapons similar to what the United States placed in Europe during the Cold War that could be used to repel an invasion from India. But those weapons are considered more vulnerable to theft or use by a rogue commander, and they are one reason that American intelligence agencies have invested so heavily in monitoring the Pakistani arsenal. A scare in 2009, when the United States feared that nuclear materials or a weapon was missing in Pakistan, led Mr. Obama to order the basing of a permanent monitoring and search capability in the region. But the complexities of bringing those capabilities to an end are forcing the intelligence agencies, which run the covert strikes into Pakistan, to scramble. Their base inside Pakistan was closed after the raid into Pakistani territory that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011. Crucial to the surveillance of Bin Ladens house in Abbottabad was the use of an RQ-170 drone. Pakistani officials talked openly in the weeks after that raid about their fear that the unmanned aircraft was also being used to monitor their nuclear arsenal, now believed to be the fastest growing in the world. The raid, and those drones, came out of American facilities just over the Afghan border. You hear about the presidents decision of the zero option in the context of the future of Afghanistan, but this is really more about Pakistan, said one former senior intelligence official who has consulted with the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about the problem. Thats where the biggest problem is. The C.I.A.s drone bases in Afghanistan, including one in the eastern part of the country, allow operators to respond quickly to fresh intelligence. The proximity to Pakistans tribal areas also allows the Predator drones and their larger, faster cousin, the Reaper, to fly longer missions without having to return to base. There certainly is an interdependence between the military and the intelligence community in Afghanistan, one senior administration official said. The Reapers, the newest, largest and most capable of the unmanned armed vehicles, have a range of up to 1,100 miles. That puts Pakistans tribal areas within range of some bases the American military has flown from, especially in Kyrgyzstan, where for more than a decade the Pentagon has conducted air operations out of a base at Manas. But the United States said last fall that it would pull out of that base in July. Other allied countries are within the Reapers range in the Persian Gulf, for example. But the distances would be too great to carry out drone operations effectively, officials said, and it is very unlikely that any of those nations would approve launching the diplomatically sensitive strikes missions from their soil. Theres no easy alternative to Afghanistan, one former senior American counterterrorism official said. Message sent using MelbPC WebMail Server
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