On 14 July 2016 at 16:22, Karl Auer & Brendan wrote: <SNIP> Talk of the trolley problem seems kind of irrelevant to what is likely to happen in the real world. How do autopilot systems in a jetliner handle such a quandary? They do not, in any meaningful sense. Robot vehicles will likely drive slower in poor conditions than humans, and will likely drive faster in tight traffic on motorways when 100% of the surrounding vehicles are also signalling that they are robots. They will likely be programmed to apply the brakes as best they can and divert their course if they can do so safely, should a soft bodied human unexpectedly jump off an overpass in front of them. Would we say the autopilot was unsafe if somebody deliberately steered a hang glider into the jetliner's path? What about a normal car with cruise control engaged? My expectation is that should an emergency like the over-pass jumper occur, all vehicles in the vicinity will immediately reduce speed, signalling the emergency to each other so they can behave in a co-ordinated way.
A lot of the discussion here seems hung up on transition issues (how will robots handle a drunk in another car!?!) and other interfaces between the robot and the world. I think the most likely scenario is we will begin making the world more accommodating to robots where it makes sense (robot only lanes like bus lanes in certain high frequency routes, for example) while the robots improve year after year to adapt to the messy world around them. During the transition decades the robot function may only operate autonomously on motorways, perhaps. But that would still be a great benefit for drivers with a long commute. Later, we might have cars that operate autonomously all the time, but only at 40km/h on minor or remote roads that are poorly mapped or don't have hard shoulders or similar. City drivers might happily put up with a journey that takes twice as long if they can relax and let a robot drive on the occasional times they encounter such a road, while the farmer at the end of the 60km gravel track from town might always choose manual driving to get him home quicker. And the beacon on the farmer's car signals his approach well in advance, so the robot car in front slows by 5% 2km ahead of the overtaking lane so it times it's arrival at the dual lane just in time to ensure it doesn't hold up the impatient human coming up behind. And I expect the statistics will show these cars make fewer errors, are routinely travelling slower than humans when they do face uncertain situations, so they will suffer fewer catastrophic accidents. And after a few more years of this, more and more drivers will see that a relaxing journey with a robot doing the driving beats a stressful trip, so more trips will be robot driven and more sales of robot vehicles will occur. And the greater numbers of robot vehicles will benefit from a network effect as they have to adjust for human drivers less frequently, accelerating greater safety. We are right at the start of this period. The existing autonomous systems are very limited, and with no environmental accommodation for robots yet, but I can imagine this changing rapidly, and in 10 years, when half the cars on the road will be newer than now, I can foresee much more robot involvement. Another 10 years and I wouldn't be surprised to see humans in control for a minority of journeys. Regards, Michael Skeggs _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
