The New York Times: Wednesday, March 4, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/briefing/coronavirus-iran-stock-market-israel.html?
I caught up with Donald G. McNeil Jr., our infectious-diseases reporter, to ask
what it’s actually like to contract the coronavirus, based on what we’ve
learned so far from China, which has the vast majority of confirmed cases.
What does this illness look like? I’ve heard some people compare it to the
flu.
It’s different from flu. It’s a lung disease, not a stuffy nose disease. Ninety
90 percent of people get a fever, 80 percent get a dry cough, and then it drops
down to 30 percent get shortness of breath and malaise — you know, being tired.
A runny nose only shows up in 4 percent, and that may be people who also happen
to have a cold or flu, too.
OK, we’ve been told that 80 percent of cases are “mild.” But you said that
can include pneumonia?
Yes. Chinese health officials define “mild” as a positive test, fever,
shortness of breath, and possibly even pneumonia, but not so bad that you need
to be hospitalized. Once you need oxygen, then you go over into the severe
category.
What are we learning about asymptomatic cases?
The good news is that a large study from China suggests that less than 1
percent of cases are asymptomatic. Almost all people get sick. But that means
that the real fatality rate is something like the fatality rate you see outside
of Hubei province, which is between 1 and 2 percent. That’s definitely not good
news. That said, once there’s an antibody test, maybe we’ll get different data.
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