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"Microsoft's inroads into the server market rest on a similar calculation. Intel-based
machines that run Windows account for about a quarter of server sales. As a result, 
Linux and
Windows are both eating into a market dominated by Unix, rather than competing head 
on, though
that will change as the market matures."

I'm not sure that's true any more. Both UNIX and Windows spread into corporates via 
guerilla
actions as users took their workloads off the mainframe (or refused to develop new 
ones there)
largely as a result of software charges.

There's no inherent reason why every user department should have its own server - any 
more
than it should have its own kitchen, air-conditioning plant, power generators, 
elevators,
building entrances or any other facility that shows benefits of scale.

The threat to Windows is two-fold.  First, individual user departments can show an 
easy and
significant local cost reduction that management close to the decision can claim as 
their
own - and move their own systems to Linux.

Second, in contrast to IBM's proprietary mainframe pricing model, applications that 
are moved
to mainframe Linux pay only for their own use of licensed software and not for everyone
else's.  A generalisation, but largely true.  Many regret the decision to move to 
departmental
servers, but refuse to admit it and lose face.  Linux gives them a 'Get out of Jail 
free'
card.

I got beaten up by IBM in early 2000 when I said that mainframe Linux wouldn't take 
off until
mid-2002.

--
  Phil Payne
  http://www.isham-research.com
  +44 7785 302 803
  +49 173 6242039

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