On Thu, 3 Apr 2003, Zane Gilmore wrote: > For anyone who is interested: > > The membership of the email list is over 260 on > 3 April 2003. > > This is a pretty big jump in the last few months.
How about a graph (statistics) :-) When a new <stuff> enters the "mainstream" the rate of adoption often follows a sigmoidal (1+e(-x)) type of function. I have a sneaky suspicion that somewhere within the last 9-3 months, Linux has entered the "high growth" portion of the curve. Or otherwise put, in very simply terms: first are the "early adopters", then the "mainstream", then the "skeptics"; and (hopefully) we may be in the early stages of "mainstream" adoption. As with the "server" side, the "linux not good for the desktop" have cooled down. (as I predicted may I say :-) see my mail: http://lists.ethernal.org/cantlug-0205/msg00037.html) So far it continues to closely follow the same path of expansion as witnessed in the server market 3-4 years ago. If the trend will continue similarly to the "server" market then we could well see 20-30% penetration in the desktop in the next ~3 years (a big "if" but lets be optimistic) I am also continuing to maintain the following prediction: The move will happen from the periphery toward the center (US) and from the workplace toward the home use" http://lists.ethernal.org/cantlug-0205/msg00042.html Cheers, -- Ryurick M. Hristev mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Computer Systems Manager University of Canterbury, Physics & Astronomy Dept., New Zealand
