Something to discuss with work colleagues, etc, when the discussion turns to
Open Source and whatever use is it to us?

Wesley Parish

----- Forwarded message from Christian Einfeldt <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> -----
Date: Tue, 6 Jul 2004 19:06:43 -0700
From: Christian Einfeldt <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [discuss] Look who's disrupting now: Sun
To: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

This snip below was taken from a press piece on the Sun site. It's
an interview with Sun President and COO Jonathan Schwartz. It's
called "The bubble was just a proof of concept." Jonathan tackles
disruption head on.

http://www.sun.com/2004-0706/feature/

IMHO, Joe Sixpack needs to understand why OOo is still going to be
here tomorrow. How many times have we heard people, particlarly in
North America, say that OOo must suck or be stolen because it is
free?

Joe Sixpack is going to be more likely to use OOo if he understands
how companies supporting OOo upstream are benefitting from OSS,
including Sun.

"Sun President and COO Jonathan Schwartz says that as computing
becomes a commodity, the opportunities become bigger than ever."

This is the point I think that Microsoft is missing. And I think
that Sun has at least as good a chance as IBM or HP of taking
market share from Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't have a strategy to
address the commoditization of computing. I think that this
article shows that Sun does that strategy.

[Jonathan]: "If you look at the history of Sun, we've always stood
for a few core values. One of them is that open networks enable
innovation and market opportunity. It's the concept of a rising
tide lifts all boats. Second, our technology
differentiation--building better systems that bring together
hardware, software, and the surrounding support
technologies--enables us to not only participate in that, but
participate at the expense of our competitors in the growth of the
network."

In his second book, the Innovator's Solution, Christensen says that
commodization drives value to the layers around the commodity.
Sun, IBM, and HP have plans to take advantage of that shift in the
value. When the IBM PC was commoditized, Microsoft was there,
along with Intel, to suck up the value which was driven to the key
components of the box, the operating system and the chip. The
operating system and the office productivity suite now are
commoditized, and Microsoft has no clue how to deal with this
process. Sun, IBM, and HP do.

[Jonathan]: "There have been a couple of massive shifts in the
marketplace, which gives us an enormous opportunity if we take
advantage of it. One is the move to industry standard servers."

snip...

[Jonathan]: "When I look at the marketplace, I have a simple means
of identifying commodities. Let me look around the room, and I'll
talk to you about some of the commodities I see. I see a power
outlet;[snip...] I see water in this water fountain at the side of
this room. I also see the network. The network is represented in
every physical space you can identify and through wireless
technologies-almost every cubic inch of a major metropolitan
region."

"There are two ways of looking at the move toward commoditization.
One is that it is something to be feared. My view is that it is
something to be valued and to be pursued with a more aggressive
competitive strategy than we've had in our lifetime. [snip...]"

"What are the two things that a company needs to be able to do if
they not only want to survive in a commodity market, but also grow
to be one of the biggest companies in the world? You must have
innovative technology." [Christian: Like the Java Desktop, with the
OOo / SO code. Just imagine a day when the OOo / SO code is the
defacto standard on the desktop. I can't see how Microsoft or
Corel could compete successfully under those circumstances, but Sun
can, because it will be ready to leverage its contribution to the
OOo / SO code.]

[Jonathan]: "Second, you have to be able to leverage your balance
sheet and use disruptive pricing to gain share--whether it is with
financial services companies that understand risk management, or
telecommunications companies, or media companies that understand
the cost of acquisition and the value of the subscriber measured by
average revenue per user."

[Snip...] "The price of whatever device the network touches--if a
network service can be delivered to it and value can be garnered
from it--can be radically disrupted to create market opportunities.
Mobile carriers give handsets away for free. Talk about disrupting
the price of the mobile handset--it's zero. Why? It encourages you
to become a subscriber."

[Snip...] "Of all the things the network touches, it touches
computers. All computers are network computers. Think what would
happen if, using the technology we have, we went to a customer and
said, 'We'll give you this blazing fast Opteron server for 50
percent less than HP can give it to you for, if you sign up as a
subscriber to our operating system.' How could HP compete? They
couldn't. That gives us a huge competitive advantage."

[Snip...] "What happened in the PC marketplace was that there was
one company. Now, by promoting interoperability between Sun and
Microsoft, we create growth opportunities for both of us because we
could deliver a $200 PC to a less developed nation or a less
wealthy demographic, and Microsoft could deliver a $2,000 desktop
to a Wall Street investment banker who needs every feature and
function that Microsoft makes available."

Of course, as Jonathan says elsewhere in the article, Sun also is
placed to compete with IBM and HP in providing top end hardware and
with Microsoft in providing software for what Christensen calls the
"upper tier" customers who are willing to pay a premium for
specific crucial functionality. So Sun will be able to grow with
the "lower tier customers" [customers who shop on the basis of
fundamental functionality at price-sensitive levels] as well as the
"upper tier" customers. In relatively short order, a good number
of those "lower tier" customers will grow their own local
businesses in what Jonathan calls "less developed nations or less
wealthy demographics" and Sun will have established distribution
channels in those areas.

What fascinates me about this discussion is that it is pretty rare
that an author (like Christensen) has an idea that has any kind of
predictive power. Let's pretend that Christensen and Jonathan are
right, and Microsoft is wrong, and that MS fails to respond in
time. It would be like time-lapse photography; if you know what to
look for, you will be able to see dramatic growth of some
companies, and dramatic decline of other companies in a way that
was contrary to conventional wisdom! It's like picking a horse
that is thought to have no chance, and that horse beats
Secretariat! (the winningest horse ever). How often does that
happen!

Christian Einfeldt

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