Is this guy Mr. Obvious? Just kidding, but I think most of us pretty have seen the great strides that Linux has made in the last 4 years or so. Even before the 2.6 kernel.
Most of this is happening now! I expect to see MS-Linux by 2012. Yeah they'll finally wake up and say, "Jeeze, you mean we can actually take this stuff and Sell it?, woot" Lindows anyone? --Manny On Mon, Aug 18, 2008 at 8:11 AM, Roger E. Rustad, Jr <[email protected]> wrote: > Here is a good article on what Linux might look like in 2012 > > http://www.informationweek.com/news/software/linux/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210002129 > > ********************************************************************************* > > Our open source expert foresees the future of Linux: By 2012 the OS will > have matured into three basic usage models. Web-based apps rule, > virtualization is a breeze, and command-line hacking for basic system > configuration is a thing of the past. > > By Serdar Yegulalp > InformationWeek > August 14, 2008 04:00 AM > > What will desktop Linux be like four years from now? > > In the time it takes most college students to earn an undergraduate > degree -- or party through their college savings -- Linux will continue > to mature and evolve into an operating system that non-technical users > can fully embrace. > > The single biggest change you'll see is the way Linux evolves to meet > the growing market of users who are not themselves Linux-savvy, but are > looking for a low-cost alternative toMicrosoft (NSDQ: MSFT) (or even the > Mac). That alone will stimulate enormous changes across the board, but > there are many other things coming down the pike in the next four years, > all well worth looking forward to. > > Over the course of the last four years, Linux has taken enormous strides > in usability and breadth of adoption. Here's a speculative look forward > at what Linux could be like a few years from now -- or, maybe we could > say what Linux ought to be like. > > For-free Versus For-pay > Expect to see a three-way split among different versions of Linux. Not > different distributions per se, but three basic usage models: > > 1. For-pay: Ubuntu's in-store $20 boxes are a good example. For a > nominal cost, you get professional support for Linux as well as licenses > to use patent-restricted technologies (e.g., codecs for legal DVD playback). > > Expect this to at least gain nominal momentum, especially if the cost is > no more than an impulse buy and people understand that Ubuntu can > non-destructively share a machine with Windows. Also expect at least one > other Linux company to pick up on this model (openSUSE, for instance), > and to have preloads on new systems incorporate such things if they > don't already. > > 2. Free to use: This is the most common model right now -- a free > distribution with support optional, and additional optional support for > closed-source components: proprietary, binary-only device drivers. > > 3. Free/libre: These distributions contain no components with patent > encumbrances or other issues, in any form. Distributions like gNewSense > or Blag Linux already do this, and an upcoming version of Ubuntu (8.10 / > "Intrepid Ibex," due in October) will also feature a wholly free > installation option. > > What's also important is that over the next few years, the distinctions > between these three licensing models will become heavily accentuated by > both the Linux community and by the creators of these distributions > themselves. This should help solidify for many non-technical people the > distinction between free-as-in-speech and free-as-in-beer. > > The Desktop > This year we've seen the appearance of a number of possible models for > the Linux desktop of four years from now. One is KDE 4, which despite a > rocky first release is quickly drawing attention for its forward-looking > approach to desktop management. Its new desktop metaphor, named > "Plasma", has just started to strut its stuff. After four more years and > a bit more third-party development, it stands to be a lot more than just > a visual curiosity, and become an actual way to get work done. > > If KDE 4's new approach is too daunting, the Mac OS X inspired gOS > desktop -- especially in its "Space" incarnation -- distills the Linux > desktop down to its bare essentials. The gOS interface also serves as a > front-end for many common web applications, one of the biggest ways > people will do work on Linux in the first place. Expect to see many more > variations on these kinds of stripped-down, click-and-go interfaces as > ways to allow a growing base of non-technical Linux users to get on > board with Linux. Pros will always still be able to drop to a command > line, though. > > Hardware > Right now, in 2008, Linux is present in a great many hardware devices > without most people ever knowing about it. By 2012, it'll be a brand > name unto itself, thanks to the exploding netbook market, where Linux > has proven itself to be a solid way to build an inexpensive computing > platform. By that time, many first-tier manufacturers likeDell ( Dell) > ought to be offering such devices -- and those that already do (like HP > (NYSE: HPQ)) will probably be looking seriously at offering more > Linux-based gear. (As of this writing, Lenovo's just announced the > IdeaPad S10 netbook with Linux in certain territories.) > > Phones are already among the devices nowusing Linux as well, and it's > also a growth market. ABI Research projected that by 2012, Linux will be > powering something like 40 million mobile devices shipped that year > alone. The definition of "mobile devices" is also expanding: in addition > to netbooks, look for a great many Linux-powered devices with open > architectures (the OpenMoko FreeRunner, for instance) that are designed > to move between niches and fill more than one need at once. > > No discussion of Linux hardware would be complete without some > discussion of hardware compatibility. Obviously there's going to be > increased attention towards open-source device drivers for existing > hardware, but another trend is the growth of hardware with open > accessibility and standards. If any major hardware maker doesn't have > Linux drivers for their product by 2012, either as a first-party product > or as a community effort, they can expect to be singled out for it > almost immediately. > > Asus's "netbook" Eee PC and similar machines are just the first of what > promises to be a healthy platform for Linux. > > Applications > What'll you be running on Linux in four years? Chances are you'll be > running a lot of what you have now, just with a new revision to the left > of the decimal point. OpenOffice will be either in or fast approaching > its fourth revision, with features like interoperability with Microsoft > VBA macros, a native 64-bit edition and quite possibly an entirely new > interface that isn't hidebound by the program's legacy requirements. > > Another important thing to expect is the use of the browser as an > application deployment framework, or at least attempts at same. This is > already happening to a great extent on multiple platforms -- e.g., Gmail > instead of Outlook or even Thunderbird -- but projects like Google Gears > are aimed at making the desktop, the browser and the network work in > both connected and disconnected ways. > > Storage > As of this writing, a 1-terabyte consumer-grade drive has hit the market > for about $175. In four years, a terabyte will easily be half that much, > and a home media server with an array a few terabytes in size wouldn't > be out of the question. One possible way to organize all of that space > is through Sun's recently open-sourced ZFS file system, which allows > easy growth and management of file systems. > > Right now, however, the licensing for ZFS only allows it to be used in > Linux's user space -- not an impossibility, but perhaps over the next > few years Sun can allow ZFS to be relicensed in a more GNU-friendly > fashion to allow it as a kernel add-on. (It's also possible to run ZFS > in an OpenSolaris implementation such as Nexenta, along with all your > other favorite Linux-y apps.) > > System Configuration > Is it optimistic to expect that by 2012, command-line hacking for basic > Linux system configuration will be a thing of the past? One can hope, > especially for things like display configuration, which should be > auto-detected and configured touchlessly. This is crucial if Linux is to > make headway with regular users, although putting Linux on devices like > netbooks, where the hardware is a predictable and controllable factor, > should help. > > If there's any system configuration issue that divides Linux devotees, > it's package management -- how to handle the wealth of software > installed in a given Linux distribution. It's probably unrealistic to > expect the plethora of distributions out there to consolidate on a > single, one-size-fits-all package-management system, especially since > each distribution tends to be married to its particular package > management system. That said, the use of something like PackageKit as a > packaging-neutral front end for a distribution might make transitions > easier. > > Also, the Conary package manager project offers some possibilities that > deserve broader adoption, such as the ability to download and apply only > changes to a particular package. That saves on bandwidth, which in turn > ought to be a bonus for Linux users in developing countries where > bandwidth is at an extreme premium. > > Virtualization > > Virtualization in the Linux kernel -- either in the form of KVM or Xen > -- will make it that much easier to run Linux side by side with any > other operating system, either as a way to migrate non-destructively > from an existing Windows installation or as a way to expand Linux's own > native functionality (for instance, by running multiple kernels each > tailored for different needs). > > Another possibility is to allow Windows apps to run side-by-side with > Linux apps, using a virtual machine as the container for the former, and > allowing cut-and-paste functionality between the two systems. To the > uninitiated, it'll look like seamless Windows on Linux -- which is what > we have with Wine right now, but using a VM as a wrapper would provide > that much more flexibility. Using VMs would also make it possible to > allow a project like ReactOS to work as a Windows container under this > scheme. > > Linux On Servers > > It's almost foolish to expect Linux's dominion on the server side will > wane -- servers are where Linux has fared best, and all the signs point > to that only becoming all the more the case. The real question is, in > what form? > > A major part of the answer lies, again, in virtualization: Linux's > mutability allows for its use not only as a server platform but as > hypervisor and container for other operating systems. That said, there's > more than one way to do such things -- KVM and Xen are two major > contenders, but both function in markedly different ways and are > probably best suited to different types of work. Xen's best for running > as close to bare metal as possible, but KVM lets a particular Linux > instance function as a container for other OSes. To that end, over the > next four years, the question won't be "Which one's the winner?" but > "Who's using each for what?" > > Conclusions > > The difference between the Linux of four years ago and the Linux of > today is striking enough -- not just in its diversity, but in the way > it's consolidating its strengths as a server platform, an OS for > portable devices and emerging hardware markets -- and as a way to make > the most out of whatever else we see in the next four years, too. > _______________________________________________ > LinuxUsers mailing list > [email protected] > http://socallinux.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/linuxusers >
