Not that I personally need to know how to extract fairly accurate
UA-ratios since I'm only interested in visiting/using-trends -
regardless of UAs. However, it seems like it is possible to get some
"quirks" in those trends too, so how big a "pinch of salt" should one
add just to be (somewhat) on the safe side?

A fairly generous pinch, I think :) Realistically the best you can do
with current technology is keep a watch on your own stats and watch
for the fluctuations within that realm. You have to keep in mind some
known oddities in UA identification too, as well as any known
influences - eg. large organisations may lock down their users to a
specific browser, which will increase that browser's share.

In terms of usage patterns, perhaps the biggest unknown is UAs'
caching/pre-caching habits. As in, a browser which is extremely
aggressive in its pre-caching habits will deliver more hits to the
server than the user actually created; or a page may be reloaded from
a very frugal caching browser so two hits/views are counted only as
one.

I talk a bit further at
http://weblog.200ok.com.au/2005/06/lies-damn-lies-and-browser-statistics.html
although really the main points are covered here.

cheers,

Ben

--
--- <http://www.200ok.com.au/>
--- The future has arrived; it's just not
--- evenly distributed. - William Gibson


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