Andrew, I don't believe in that line of reasoning because it ignores worldwide raw material supply constraints for metals that are becoming ever more precious and scarce like nickel, rare-earth metals, lithium, cobalt, aluminum, etc., and even lead, BTW, ... which are not only putting a floor on economies-of-scale price reduction potential, but that floor itself is continually increasing and escalating. In the last few years the price of lead has risen 8X, the price of nickel has risen 6.5X, and the price of cobalt has risen 5X. Continued price reductions (per kWh) in advanced chemistry batteries are not a reasonable assumption to make. Just go back and look at expert predictions of 7 years ago that we'd now be down to $300/kWh on NiMH batteries, and we're nowhere near that; in fact we've gone in the opposite direction with price increases in NiMH batteries, despite quantum, exponential increases in economies of scale. It just hasn't happened and won't happen -- because of supply constraints and escalating worldwide demand for nickel and rare-earth metals. The same is true for lithium, cobalt, and aluminum.
So in answer to your question, yes, the $2,500 battery pack replacement cost is today's cost, and that may well end up being an underestimate on the low side, given the way things are going with the underlying raw material supply constraints. Charles ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andrew" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'Charles Whalen'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "'FLEAA Mailing List'" <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 10:03 PM Subject: RE: [FLEAA] Charles Whalen Vectrix Charles, Is the $2,500 replacement cost for the battery today's cost? I would think in five years the cost would be lower as battery technology improves. Andrew Roddy Palm Beach, Florida -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Charles Whalen Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 9:13 PM To: James Flynn Cc: Florida EAA Subject: Re: [FLEAA] Charles Whalen Vectrix Hi James, The suitability of purpose really depends on your average cruising speed. At avg cruising speeds of 35mph or less, I'd say that the Vectrix would work for anyone with a daily drive (total driving distance per day) of up to 40 miles, leaving comfortable margin to spare. At an avg speed of 40mph, the bike would be suitable for a daily drive of up to 35 miles. At avg cruising speeds of 45mph and above, I would say that the Vectrix would be suitable for a daily drive of up to 30 miles, again leaving comfortable margin to spare. If you can charge at work, then you can double those daily driving distance suitability numbers, but that doesn't apply to your situation from what you said. These recommendations are based on my riding experience to date, now at around 500 miles. As you have a 12-mile commute each way plus some additional small errands, I am guessing that your total daily driving distance is around 30 miles. If that is the case, then I would think the Vectrix could well be suitable for your needs, no matter what your average cruising speed is. You should really try one out on an extended test ride to get a feel for it and determine if it will meet your needs. If you are ever down this way in Florida, you are welcome to take my bike for an extended daylong or weekend-long test ride. If you are doing a 70-80% depth of discharge on every cycle, then I think you can use that 1700 cycle life figure that the company gives as a conservative assumption. If you were doing a 50% depth of discharge most of the time with only a once-per-month deep-cycle full discharge (to help maintain bottom-of-charge memory retention), then I'd say you'd probably be looking at a cycle life more like 3,000 cycles. But since you can't charge at work, then based on a 30 mile per day driving cycle, I'd estimate a daily depth of discharge of around 75%, something like that. So yeah, let's take 1700 cycles as a good estimate. Now, your estimate that those 1700 cycles will be reached in 5 years implies that you would be riding 30 miles just about every single day, 7 days a week, and charging every single day. So that means you would be putting about 11,000 miles on the bike every year. That's a lot of riding, but assuming that's the case (from your own description), then yes, you are right that according to the company's listed specs on the battery, the battery's useful life would be reached in about 5 years at 55,000 miles on the bike. In fact, I believe that is the expected life of the battery pack -- 55,000 miles. You can probably figure on it costing about $2,500 to replace the battery pack. Best regards, Charles Whalen Delray Beach, Florida ----- Original Message ----- From: James Flynn To: [email protected] Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 10:11 AM Subject: [FLEAA] Charles Whalen Vectrix Dear Charles I am not even sure this e mail will reach Charles Whalen - but here goes anyway! Charles I read the brief review of your initial experiences with the Vectrix on the internet. I am thinking of buying the Vectrix electric scooter. I have a daily commute of 12 miles each way and some small mileage some days also. I have no way really of charging the scooter while at work. I have never owned an electric vehicle of any kind as I have always commuted on gas powered two wheelers. I would be very interested in hearing how you find the Vectrix and any other thoughts you think relevant. You seem to know a lot about battery technology. The Vectrix technical information states that the the battery is good for 1700 full discharge cycles - does this mean that if the battery is close to being fully drained each night when I charge it up that the battery will be used up after less than 5 years ie on the assumption that I use the bike every day for work? That's a lot of free information I am looking for!!! Regards James Flynn _______________________________________________ Florida EAA mailing list [email protected] http://www.floridaeaa.org _______________________________________________ Florida EAA mailing list [email protected] http://www.floridaeaa.org
