Hi Charles, Fran and All,
I've been watching oil, energy, economics
since 67 and what you both wrote is true.
Oil will cost up to about $6-7/gal in today's
$ as at that rate even the dinosaurs that don't want to
change will. I flipped over before it was $2/gal as I'm
cheap.
Why it won't go above that is other forms of
RE, fossil energy becomes cheaper. For instance a 1kw
windgen axialflux type, can be built for under $300 in parts
for 50 yrs about 3-7kwhr/day depending on Fla site. In fact
wind, solar thermal generator, tidal power cost less than a
new coal, $6500kw or Nuke $9,000,in mass production, under
$3,000kw.
While some will say on solar thermal
generators it only happens when the sun shines but in Fla
that's peak electric time worth much more/KWhr. And one can
use a back up burner or engine using any fuel to power the
thermal generator when the sun doesn't shine. This give hot
water and heating too.
Most any dry biomass can be converted to
liquid, gaseous fuels as can oil sands, shale or coal at
less than $5/gal with FT process now used to convert NG into
Diesel.
But getting people, corps to switch is very
hard. Luckily politicians now see it's not just eco problems
but national, economic security reasons and recently the
dems in the bailout package put in some energy and EV
supports with more coming soon. And it needs to be soon as
when the economy comes back the speculators will again drive
up the price as the oil production limits are hit, oil will
go up to $5/gal. I believe peak oil production happened last
July as we are using 4bbls for every bbl we find in the
world, it won't ever be larger though demand certainly will
grow.
But for those like on this list doing EV's,
other energy conservation and some making their own power
will do well vs those who won't get prepared.
There is a good amount of money to be made
making RE power now Fla has passed net metering where they
pay you what they charge you for electric on the grid. And
the money you save not buying gas for transport makes RE,
EV's the way of the future or pay through the nose.
Jerry Dycus
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