A look at EV's from an investor point of view.

Enjoy,

Jamie

>The Investment U e-Letter: Issue #960
>Friday, March 20, 2009
>
>Automakers: Between "Barack" and a Hard Place?
>by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist
>http://www.investmentu.com/resources/david-fessler.html
>
>In this issue: 
>
>- "Vehicle-to-Grid" concepts
>
>- Lithium Battery technology
>
>- Two Producers Cashing in
>
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>-----------------------------------------------
>
>
>Dear Investment U Reader,
>
>During the last few years of the Bush administration, the EPA was directed 
>to ignore California's pleas to grant it a waiver of the Clean Air Act.
>
>Why? The grant would effectively have permitted California to enforce 
>stricter emission rules its legislature had enacted a number of years before.
>
>The EPA dragged its feet because as many as 16 other states were 
>considering legislation modeled after California's - with one notable 
>difference: emission rules even more stringent than California's.
>
>The carmakers lobbied Bush administration officials to oppose California's 
>request. And it's not hard to understand why: They're struggling just to stay 
>in business.
>
>But now, car manufacturers are between Barack and a hard place, as the 
>President told the EPA to "reconsider" its Bush-era denial. If it does, 
>carmakers could find themselves having to make cars that get 43 mpg by 
>2016.
>
>Not that that's a bad thing - but it's far more aggressive than the current 
>goal 
>of 35 mpg by 2020. The problem is that the new requirement would nearly 
>double today's fleet-wide average of 25 mpg.
>
>A Nationwide Energy Storage Battery 
>
>All this has had the carmaker's scrambling to get into the Plug-In Electric 
>Vehicle (PHEV) business. Most already have an active PHEV development 
>program underway, with GM being the closest to production with its Chevy 
>Volt. 
>
>Unfortunately, GM is also teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.
>
>Necessity is the mother of invention, and we're seeing that in spades with 
>PHEV development. One of the more intriguing schemes is the "Vehicle-to-
>Grid" (V2G) concept, and it's been strongly endorsed by the head of the 
>Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
>
>It works like this: When your V2G car is plugged in to recharge its batteries, 
>the utility regulates the rate at which it is charged. More importantly, it 
>can 
>reverse the flow and use the V2G's battery pack as a power source during 
>peak use periods on the grid.
>
>Similar to the way cloud computing works - where many PCs are combined 
>to create a huge supercomputer - all the V2G vehicles taken as a whole 
>would equate to a giant, nationwide power storage battery.
>
>In return, the vehicle's owner would receive a credit towards his or her 
>electric bill. It's been estimated that - utilizing this concept - the entire 
>premium cost for owning a V2G vehicle could be recouped in as little as 
>three years.
>
>The benefits go way beyond recouping the added expense of owning an 
>electric car, however. By reducing our demand for oil and gas, it would 
>make the process of weaning ourselves off of fossil fuels much less painful.
>
>Greenhouse gases would significantly decrease, an impact that would be 
>most notable in densely populated urban areas. The additional revenue that 
>the power companies would reap from PHEV charging could finance the 
>additional solar, wind or geothermal power installations necessary to 
>provide the additional charging power.
>
>It also solves one of the biggest problems with solar and wind power: That 
>they can't be used as baseload supplies. This giant nationwide, distributed 
>storage system would allow utilities everywhere to store power from solar 
>and wind sources and redistribute it whenever it's needed.
>
>For the moment, neither GM nor Toyota - the two leading PHEV contenders 
>- have announced any plans to produce this type of vehicle.
>
>Clearly what's needed is legislative regulation or an incentive (or both) from 
>the FERC that will coax the utility companies into embracing the V2G 
>concept. This will create the need for the vehicles, and the incentive for car 
>companies to build them.
>
>Everything Hinges on a Good Battery Pack
>
>The only fly in the ointment - and regular readers have heard me say this 
>before (http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/February/plug-in-hybrid-
>electric-vehicles.html) - is an improvement in battery technology.
>
>Right now, the most promising technology that seems like it can provide the 
>power densities required for the 100 to 200 mile target commuting range is 
>Lithium-Ion.
>
>And those few companies in the lithium battery business are destined to be 
>the big winners, as the technological challenges are met. So who's in the 
>battery business?
>
>EnerSys (Nasdaq: ENS) is one of the largest manufacturers, marketers and 
>distributors of industrial batteries. From submarines to spaceships - and 
>everything in between - EnerSys has a battery technology to fit the 
>application. It also makes the charging and power equipment as well.
>
>Last fall, the company launched its EcoSafe line of batteries designed for 
>renewable energy storage applications. Targeted towards the wind and solar 
>energy generation markets, this product line should see significant growth 
>under President Obama's EPA initiatives.
>
>Of more interest to us, EnerSys is working with a number of niche players to 
>develop a lithium-ion line of batteries specifically targeted to the PHEV 
>transportation market.
>
>Where Will All the Lithium Come From?
>
>The short answer is Bolivia and Chile, and Sociedad de Chile (NYSE: 
>SQM) - based in Santiago, Chile - is a world leader in the production of 
>lithium carbonate and a number of other specialty chemicals. 
>
>Right now, the world's demand for lithium is growing at roughly 7% 
>annually. SQM leads the world in lithium production, too, with over 30% 
>market share. 
>
>Lithium is used in greases, glass and portable power tool batteries, but its 
>biggest future growth prospects are large, lithium-ion batteries for hybrid 
>electric vehicles. New HEV battery demand is expected to ramp up sharply 
>in the latter half of 2009, and even more in 2010.
>
>And SQM is getting ready to meet this increasing demand: Its three-year 
>capital expenditures of $1 billion means an across-the-board capacity 
>increase of 25% to 30% for all of its products by the end of 2010. 
>
>Changing 100 Year-Old Perceptions
>
>There's an old rub that goes something like this: "Science only progresses 
>with the death of each scientist." The idea is that sometimes it takes the 
>passing of a generation in order for fresh ideas and discoveries to rise to 
>the 
>top of the heap.
>
>Let's hope - at least in this case - it doesn't take that long for PHEVs. We 
>don't have that much time to waste.
>
>Next week, I'll be speaking at the 2009 Investment U Conference at the 
>beautiful Vinoy Resort in St. Petersburg, Florida. Our regular format will 
>take a week off and instead you'll be getting daily reports from Scott Brown. 
>I look forward to seeing many of you there.
>
>Good investing,
>
>David Fessler 
>
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>-----------------------------------------------
>
>
>Today's Investment U Crib Sheet
>
>Recently we've been looking at a number of options and alternatives in the 
>"green" energy sector. And new auto technologies are on the forefront of 
>"hot topics" in this field. The debate over cost effectiveness and 
>environmental impact has been clashing with the scientific hurdles and 
>limits of our current technologies.
>
>In fact, our discussion boards over Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles: The 
>Only Roadblock to PHEVs 
>(http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/February/plug-in-hybrid-electric-
>vehicles.html) and the follow up article Is General Motors the Buy of the 
>Decade? PHEVs Part Two 
>(http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/February/general-motors.html) 
>ranged from supporting, to disgust over a number of the current options and 
>their potential.
>
>It's a decision that you'll have to make for yourself. But regardless of which 
>side you fall on, we all can agree that it's an area we need to keep an eye 
>on. 
>Whatever technology and solution that emerges will have the potential to 
>change the way we live around the world. 
>
>With new solutions and technologies, many of the initial investors are 
>rewarded handsomely - Think Microsoft, Google and Wal-Mart. Ultimately, 
>we don't have a crystal ball to know exactly what will happen, and that's 
>why we pay attention to all of the alternatives. 
>
>But just because we keep an eye towards the future, doesn't mean that we 
>are ignoring the profitable energy technologies currently creating vast sums 
>of wealth. In fact Dave Fessler just released some of his latest findings on 
>the "buried treasure" of today's energy. 
>
>To get all of his latest research, go here.
>
>http://www.oxfonline.com/OXF/Treasure0309.html?pub=OXF&code=EOXFK328
>
>
>Related Articles: 
>
>The Best Way to Play Oil's Imminent Rebound
>http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/February/investing-in-crude-oil.html
>
>Why You Can't Ignore "Green" Investing
>http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/alternative-energy.html
>
>The Cure For Our Economy
>http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/energy-and-infrastructure.html
>
>
>
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>
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>
>Recommended Resources
>
>The Commodities Supercycle
>Five Ways To Profit From the Base and Precious Metals
>http://www.oxfonline.com/Supercycle/supercycle1108-iuprromo.html?pub=300SMINE&code=E3MNJB02
>
>The Fast-Track Investor's Guide
>
>A Lifetime of Profits in Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate and Precious Metal
>https://www.web-purchases.com/300SIUGD/E3GDJ603/awasstyleorderform.html
>
>
>www.investmentu.com 
>
>
>Contributing Editors
>
>Alexander Green: Chairman
>
>Dr. Mark Skousen: Advisory Panelist 
>
>Louis Basenese: Advisory Panelist
>
>David Fessler: Advisory Panelist
>
>Dr. Scott Brown: Advisory Panelist 
>
>
>Executive Committee
>
>Julia C. Guth: Founder
>
>Alexander Wissel: Editor in Chief
>
>Danielle O'Dell: Director of E-Commerce
>
>Erick Hienz: E-Commerce Manager
>
>Jonathan Kissane: Chief Web Specialist
>
>
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