On Feb 1, 2006, at 3:33 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Ask yourself, what's their market for YALD? Geeks? None of us
would tolerate such an invasion of privacy.
Jim Thompson wrote:
Yet all of us use Google now.
This is what I use: http://www.scroogle.org/scraper.html
When I use Google directly, I block their cookie. I use Jump Link
on their links (if using Javascript). I do not frequent Orkut. I do
not use Gmail, and will not answer e-mail from Gmail.
Googlesyndication and Googleanalytics are likewise blocked.
In short, I keep Google at arm's length.
OK, but you still use Google, and very few people erect the
Googlewall that you have.
N00bs? They try Linux if a Geek helps them.
Or Google promises to end the days of malware on their PeeCee.
Again, how is this different from anyone else's promise? When I was
cleaning PCs, infections were a problem at the time of infection
only, and no-one accepted Linux as a way to end the problem.
They didn't have an org the size of Google (and with the branding of
Google) pushing it, either. To my mind, the missing bit in a Google
desktop is
creating a support structure.
The efforts of Xandros and Linspire are just a drop in the bucket.
Ah, but erosion is happening in the markets dominated by
Microsoft. Erosion is a powerful force.
I see evidence for it in the server market. I see very little on
the desktop. I did manage to get my father to switch, though. I
told him that the only way he would continue to get free tech
support from me is if he converted. What does he do now? He runs
all his old software on Win4Lin, but with a couple of key
exceptions, browsing and e-mail.
I came >this close< to converting Jamie off XP in December.
And 10 years ago, very few (if any) did so. [put Linux on servers]
But it is far easier to justify the switch to Linux servers. First,
the majority of the switch is from Unix to Linux. There is
surprisingly little movement from Windows to Linux.
I think you are (again) dealing in historical artifact. Yes, most of
the early move was Unix -> Linux, but there is ample evidence that
Linux is now
slowly eroding the growth Windows market share, especially on the
server. IDC estimated in late 2004 that linux was growing twice as
fast as Windows in the "volume server" (< $25k) market. In late
2004, IDC estimated that Windows had a 32% market share of the "value
server" market (measured by revenue), Unix had a 36% share, and linux
a 9% share. (I have no idea what "other" might have been.)
But Windows was growing at 15%, Unix at 3% and Linux at 30%. If we
extrapolate:
2004 32 9
2005 37 12
2006 42.3 16
2007 48.6 21
2008 55.9 28.1
2009 64.3 37.4
2010 74 49.74
As you can see, if current trends continue, by 2009 there is nothing
but Windows and Linux in the "value server" market, and by 2010,
something has to give. Of course, by 2010, Microsoft will have
shipped Vista. :-)
Jim
