On September 26, 2015, I saw the first pair of examples of what appeared
to be much smarter SMTP spam.  Both the envelope 'From ' sender and the
internal 'From: ' sender were credibly forged to impersonate two
personal friends, Michael Siladi and Alison Stern.  That wasn't new:
Forging of the envelope sender has been a well-tested art since the
infamous revenge-spam attack against Joe Doll in 1997 that gave the
world the term 'Joe-job'.[1]

What was new was the personalised tailoring of some of the body text
_and_ most especially the use of recipients in the To: and Cc: headers 
who were among Michael and Alison's frequent contact addresses -- other
people in the science fiction convention-running community and private
mailing lists for convention-running.

Not that it matters, but the injection point of those mails, back in
September, was IP address 212.40.185.205 in Germany, with the prior-hop
Received header (before the one for the German mail provider) claiming 
that it had originated at an ISP POP in Bogota, Colombia.  Both Michael
and Alison are in Mountain View, California.

Back then in September, I sent Michael and Alison a detailed header
analysis, pointing out the probable significance of the highly
personalised recipient list:  I inferred that the spammers had not only
harvested detailed traffic information from malware on the MS-Windows
box of someone in Michael & Alison's social circle, but also was now
using traffic analysis -- turning loose Bayesian classifier software on 
harvested data concerning who corresponds with whom -- to
programmatically compose _more-credible_ spam targeted at the forged
sender's known associates, with some message-text contents likewise
personalised to the sender.


Today, another blast of forged mail arrived on about six diverse mailing
lists for science-fiction convention-running plus the "basfa' discussion
mailing list of the Bay Area Science Fiction Society -- purporting to be
from Michael Siladi, as before.  Each of the targeted mailing lists duly
transmitted the forgeries to all recipients.  The targeted mailing lists
+ other CC'd/To'd recipients were picked from ones Michael corresponds
with.  The phrase 'artshow15' in the body text is a name of a private 
mailing list operated for the 2015 BayCon, a local science fiction
convention in the San Francisco Bay Area of which Michael is convention
chair.

I have posted full data on the BASFA copy of the forgery, plus my
personal analysis, here:

http://linuxmafia.com/pipermail/conspire/2015-November/008205.html
http://linuxmafia.com/pipermail/conspire/2015-November/008206.html

Notice my point that Michael's ISP, Netcom, is still in 2015 failing to
publish any MX-authentication data (SPF, DKIM, or variants thereof) 
in its DNS, so it's no wonder that forgeries of Michael's address could
not be detected.

In my second post, I concluded:

  I expect a lot of mailing lists will soon have forged-mail spam
  problems -- not a problem until now.

  This is a wake-up call.

Anyone else seeing this?  Other thoughts?


[1] See the 'Joe-job' entries on http://linuxmafia.com/kb/Mail/ , 
if you don't know this story.  (I was among the many recipients of the
flamebait attempt to lure anti-spam people to attack Joe Doll, probably
because I was a regular poster to net.admin.net-abuse.email at the time.)
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